"This time it's different."
Experts from a world that no longer exists
11–20 of 267 posts
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#12buying stocks at all seemed like nothing but speculation in the 1920s because corporate disclosures were so opaque. By the 1970s that had changed, and you could begin to make rational, calculated long-term decisions that put the odds in your favor.
Thriving growth follows sunshine.
Meanwhile, Govs/Corps compulsively fight transparency. Their only greater priority is revenge on people who drag them into the light.
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#13There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming` https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
The social media person at the Economist is bad at their jobs. The article goes into the nuances of the claim.
The specific claims are
Higher than expected inflation
> new data showed that America’s consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in June, well above economists’ expectations. On July 14th it was revealed that British inflation rose to 2.5% in June, which was also higher than forecast.
The specific reason high inflation was not expected was because expected long term slump, which didn't happen
> Not long ago economists tended to the view that the covid-19 pandemic would lead to a prolonged slump in the rich world. That view has not worn well
> With unexpected growth has come an unexpected spurt of inflation
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#14There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming` https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
Well this is not true. There has been debate about an emerging inflation threat for many years now even long before the pandemic due to the rapid rate central banks are printing money to keep the economy floating since 2008. However in the financial market there are many people whose lives depend on constant growth creating a strong sentiment to either willfully mislead the market or just lie to themselves for comfort and self-preservation.
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#15Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#16There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming` https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
"The less confident you are, the more serious you have to act."
– Tara Ploughman
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#17There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming` https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
ZeroHedge has predicted 83 of the last 7 downturns.
That's pretty good. How many times were they able to predict the same downturn?
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#18I can’t wait to see what the experts at hacker news have to say about this!
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#19There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming` https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
The social media person at the Economist is bad at their jobs. The article goes into the nuances of the claim. The specific claims are Higher than expected inflation > new data showed that America’s consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in June, well above economists’ expectations. On July 14th it was revealed that British inflation rose to 2.5% in June, which was also higher than forecast. The specific reason high i…
How dare you soil my single-sentence belief with this filthy nuance.
Re: Experts from a world that no longer exists
#20Tl;dr - Old experts cannot distinguish between historical/economic cycles vs. Paradigm shifts that break those cycles.
Nice theory, but adjust your scale over a thousand years and innovation has yet to usurp megacycles of boom/bust, war/peace or the rise/fall of "empires".
We may be better informed than we were in the 1700's, but we are no less partisan in our views, speculative in our ventures, nor vulnerable to geopolitical storms.
Using one of Housel's examples - high PE equity ratios are indicative of excess liquidity in the system chasing speculative yield; a subset of which excess liquidity is capital fleeing China for the West (or) A federal reserve & US Treasury committed to ensuring Boomer retirement assets are not wiped out in a market reversion to a historical mean. High PE equity ratios are not indicative of any underlying fundamentals that justify the majority of these prices.
Yes, Tesla _may_ be an exception _if_ Musk's innovation convergence strategy is monetized as its investors hope. But for every Tesla there is a Nikola, and for every Moderna a Theranos.
What do old experts (old farts like me) know that Housel may not? We've lived through about 8 recessions, three economic crisis, one bout of epic inflation, and we've watched change, ignorance and greed greatly disrupt or destroy corporate behemoths like Lucent, Enron, GM, GE, etc.
We know what is coming. We just can't tell you precisely when.
Housel's temporal sense appears to be stunted. And, yes, he does (as he stated) sound arrogant.