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Crypto Wash Trading

arxiv.org

301–306 of 306 posts

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Each Bitcoin block pays out more than a quarter of a million dollars to the miner that discovers it. Every day, more than 140 blocks are typically mined. "Infrequent" is relative, but if a miner manages to mine one block once per month (roughly once every 4000 blocks), its revenue will be in excess of $3 million per year. Many mining companies make much more than that, because Bitcoin is more centralized than it shou…

I'd like to hear how you think it is centralized. I address the common point above, but maybe you have other ideas.

Centralization is a continuum, not a binary condition. I don't think that Bitcoin is centralized in absolute terms—it's just more centralized than it should be—which is a normative opinion I have, not a statement of fact.

Bitcoin would be less centralized if ordinary people could mine it successfully with their home computers, rather than needing to buy specialized hardware. As it stands, mining activity is performed almost entirely by people and entities able and willing to spend the money to buy mining rigs. Not a bad thing per se, but it results in fewer people mining than I might prefer.

I think your explanation is a good one.

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to hear how you think it is centralized. I address the common point above, but maybe you have other ideas.

Centralization is a continuum, not a binary condition. I don't think that Bitcoin is centralized in absolute terms—it's just more centralized than it should be—which is a normative opinion I have, not a statement of fact. Bitcoin would be less centralized if ordinary people could mine it successfully with their home computers, rather than needing to buy specialized hardware. As it stands, mining activity is performed…

Thanks for the clarification because it sounded like a more definitive statement than a normative opinion.

Join some of the FB mining groups... you'd be surprised at how many 'normal' people have bitcoin miners. They aren't at the scale of the commercial places, but it is happening. Especially once China shut down, the markets were flooded with boxes.

This is also why I prefer GPU based mining. More accessible (gpus are everywhere) and it is actually the older hardware that is more ROI profitable. It isn't a hardware race like it is with bitcoin. The risk is lower too... if you burn out a $100 card, it is a lot less of an impact than a several thousand $ card.

The interesting thing to watch is what what coin (or technology) will pop up next as the top GPU PoW. There can only be one.

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#303
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So "the government is legitimate, problem solved." All good then, I simply do not understand why there are social problems and resistance movements worldwide, it is childish! The governments are legitimate! If these governments actually represented the will of the people, the people would not be using bitcoin to send money home. Or smoking weed for that matter. There is a giant blind spot in your worldview IMO. There…

> If these governments actually represented the will of the people, the people would not be using bitcoin to send money home. Or smoking weed for that matter. This is not how it works. If a significant number of people oppose a certain regulation, a public debate will ensue, and sometimes the general mindset with regards to the issue will shift and then the regulation will change accordingly. This is how democracy wo…

> This is not how it works.

That's exactly how it works. That's not how you want it to work, but that's how it plays out in practice. You might want to ideally live in a world where a frictionless public debate occurs and people assess the value of a law and decide democratically whether to follow it, and then follow it whether they like it or nor and adhere to the rule of majority, and ideally I'd agree a democracy should work like this. But how it actually works is people disobey laws they don't like. People smoke weed if they want to, regardless of the legality. That is how it works.

And the reason is because changing laws is not in practice frictionless and the result of majority sentiment. There's inertia, there's entrenched interest, there are deliberate roadblocks to the will of the people put in place by the powerful. Democracy doesn't work as well as you are imagining it should, and people deal with that by giving up on it just a little and making decisions for themselves.

The only convincing argument I require is that if people want to use it they will. I don't need your permission, and frankly I don't care if people take me seriously. I understand this means that democracy will fall apart, but if democracy were working for people as the sales pitch said it would it wouldn't be falling apart in the first place.

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#304
post #144
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Benford's Law is a pretty established method of detecting fraud in forensic accounting.

Benford's Law requires that the numbers being analyzed typically occur over a wide distribution spanning orders of magnitude, which typically doesn't happen in trading (except over very long time periods).

Why would regulated and non-regulated exchanges differ in whether they follow Benford's law or not then? (As in the article)

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#305
post #24

This is why Uniswap's data is much more valuable than centralized exchanges. On-chain trading permits a degree of transparency and trustworthiness not readily feasible with centralized exchanges. Centralized exchanges are incentivized to doctor their data and lie about their volumes. The larger the volumes an exchange publishes, even if fake or gamed, the more relevant an exchange appears. Users must blindly trust wh…

> The larger the volumes an exchange publishes, even if fake or gamed, the more relevant an exchange appears.

Only to unsophisticated traders, since past volume (liquidity) isn’t worth anything right now. What you really want to look at is market depth, ie. the quantity of outstanding open orders in the order book.

> Users must blindly trust whatever data exchanges can manufacture.

Contrary to past volume, open order book orders need not be trusted. Users can test this figure by executing a market order against it and observing the execution price. If there’s always a discrepancy between the two then either the exchange is lying about its order book depth or is susceptible to front running.

Re: Crypto Wash Trading

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how that is relevant here. Wash trading is market, price, and reputation manipulation, not money laundering or tax evasion. I'm not sure Coinbase's need to report money laundering applies.

> Wash trading is market, price, and reputation manipulation, not money laundering or tax evasion A lot of money laundering involves wash trading. That's why institutions like Coinbase have systems in place to detect it. Non-laundering wash trades would get flagged by such a system. If it were systemic, it would almost certainly merit a SAR.

>A lot of money laundering involves wash trading.

Citation needed, because wash trading and money laundering are not mutually inclusive. There are not controls in place for money laundering that detect wash trading, because crypto is not a regulated security.

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