Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#171

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:08 AM UTC

webmaven wrote: post #116

People will make a big deal about a date that is all zeros and twos. Eg. 02/02/2022 or 02/20/2022 or some other variation. Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date. Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.

While silly, I think this absolutely will happen as you describe. It would be too hard for Twitter to resist.

I don't even mean this pejoratively. 22/02/2022 will be a thing, and it will spark up the arguments in your prediction.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#172

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:13 AM UTC

idrios wrote: post #119

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down th…

This doesn't sound exactly right to me. "forced to move their crypto assets to things like [x]" just sounds like a different way to say "buy [x] with crypto" instead of with USD. Edit because I was downvoted: This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#173

Post by reaperducer » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

jonathanlb wrote: post #156

reaperducer wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

90% of Americans aren't wrapped up in the manufactured anger industry. They just want to feed their family.

Or, you know, you could be a woman needing to terminate a pregnancy and the laws in your state prevent you from doing that. Or you can't get legally married to your partner, and so on. What may seem to be manufactured to you can affect people unlike you in tangible ways.

Sounds like you've never been hungry. Or poor.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#174

Post by kbob » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:27 AM UTC

Satoshi Nakamoto will be revealed to be an extraterrestrial info-warrior sent to destroy humanity by tricking us into turning all our carbon fuels into random numbers. This will happen sometime in April.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#175

Post by abnercoimbre » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:57 AM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #152

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing. Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?

No one cares if you don't wear a mask in Utah (there are also no mask mandates for most places, hospitals might be an exception, and some workers still need to wear them I think) and you're not even allowed to sit in a coffee shop without being vaccinated in Seattle.

It's on the surface like this in Seattle, but not really. Places I visit have silently dropped real enforcement, and no one bats an eye if there's folks without masks. Of course the fact it's all theater still makes it annoying.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#176

Post by RickJWagner » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 3:29 AM UTC

Continued Covid battles until it eventually becomes something like the flu.

In American politics, the pendulum swings back the other way and 'red' politicians defeat 'blue' politicians.

Inflation continues. Interest rates rise.

The Great Resignation continues until cash reserves are dried up and rising prices mandate people have a source of income. At that point, jobs become a little harder to get. Generally tough economic times.

Containerization continues to dominate IT headlines. This results in a fertile job market for IT practitioners.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#177

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 3:46 AM UTC

lvass wrote: post #133

The first major Assassination Politics[0] event, based on decentralized prediction markets. [0] https://cryptome.org/ap.htm

That's very interesting. That and dead pools never really had a practical way to operate. But now they do.

Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence.

Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome hasn't been around for more than a decade.

Your first part is spot on, though. Maybe not next year. But it will happen some time since all the technology is heading in a way that makes it quite possible.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#178

Post by gilmore606 » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 3:51 AM UTC

tuatoru wrote: post #144

Covid-19 is recognised as being endemic (here to stay). Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination. The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed w…

> Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end

I don't disagree, but as soon as next year? Why do you think so?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#179

Post by dillondoyle » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 4:24 AM UTC

reaperducer wrote: post #48

nickthemagicman wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.

I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care.…

I don't understand this viewpoint.

I get that a ton of poeple don't like politics in the sense of grandstanding politicians, debates on social issues that don't go anywhere, flame wars on FB, etc.

But the actual governments, fed state down to local have a huge impact on virtually everything we do in our daily lives. And in the US it's almost all politics. We aren't are less of a technocracy (idk if that's the correct term?) and not an authoritarian state.

Roads, pipes to bring water, sewer treatment, schools, healthcare (both subsidized and also the regulations on for profit insurance holders), cars, the food we eat, gas for our cars, etc etc etc. And oftentimes it's the smallest level politics that have the largest impact; city council & school board.

Maybe the internet might still be one of the largest still under regulated / touched by govt $ policy we have left.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#180

Post by dillondoyle » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 4:29 AM UTC

300bps wrote: post #19

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…

This might be a dumb question... Are most of the treasuries we've already sold - e.g. I assume that's what $29 trillion in debt means - already fixed coupon rate from the govt? I know it trades on market which inverse reflects real return.

Just googling I found floating rate notes, which seem to respond like an adjustable mortgage would. But they seem small and short term.

But I do understand we have a deficit and have to sell more treasuries every year.

Maybe that would be a driver to have a more even budget.

But from my perspective Dems pass policy that a large % of the country likes. Raise taxes to pay for it. Republicans then win election and repeal and cut taxes but leave said popular policy. next Dem majority raises taxes but probably not even above the baseline before Rs cut it (e.g. the current draft reconciliation bill doesn't actually raise taxes much at all. it's crazy to me how cheap some of this stuff is when you take legit CBO scored credit for instance not handing out billions to pharma)