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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#121

Post by shagmin »

These are very loosely held convictions...

- COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu.

- There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously.

- AI will slowly cover more ground into people's lives.

- Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped.

- US political tensions will continue to get worse.

- China will have domestic growing pains in the next few years, maybe cut back on growth or stir up some more regional tensions.

- Inflation will slowly give way to deflation and then the stock market is going to plateau or dip for some prolonged time.

- Conservatives will win control of congress in 2022 and the following 2 years will be a lame duck session.

- Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024.

- 2024 will be a really bad election for both parties

- Housing prices will continue to rise and not be affected by deflation and this will only get worse without significant and good government intervention.

- A black swan event or two mini black swan events that drastically affects a lot of other predictions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#122

Post by frontman1988 »

A physical in ear device which does real time translation of almost all major languages.

A successful drone assassination of a world leader by terrorists.

Massive explosion in international tourism at some point.

Great leaps in biotechnology which has surprising implications.

Increasing geopolitical tensions due to a flexing China and insecure America.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#123

Post by wbsss4412 »

300bps wrote: post #109
amalcon wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The population of the United States was around 331 million per the 2020 census, so $1T is a little over $3000 per resident. The GDP of the United States was approximately 21 trillion in 2020 (a pandemic year) per World Bank, so a $1T loan is about 5% of gross annual income. It's not that hard for an individual or business with good credit history to get such a loan. Comparing things on the scale of the national budge…

so a $1T loan is about 5% of gross annual income No, this is not right at all. The total income of the United States government is $4 trillion per year. So a $1 trillion loan is 25% of gross annual income. The $3 trillion being added to the debt is 75% of gross annual income. GDP is not the income of the United States government. But this new debt will be debt of the United States government. The reality is that we a…

Setting aside your remarks about GDP not being relevant for government financing, The government is not a household, it exists in perpetuity. The time scales with which it can service debt are completely different.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#124

Post by paulpauper »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #70
paulpauper wrote: post #2

My heuristic is to extend pre-2022 trends outward: Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021 Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up. No anti-trust action against big tech companies No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid US dollar continue…

> No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?

both

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#125

Post by Tangokat »

- Cryptocurrency will experience a large drawdown (50%+) due to NFTs not being worth anything. They will recover and end next year higher than now. BTC at 80k+.

- Inflation is not transitory and the market will panic once the fed raises rates. They do not reverse their position like in 2018.

- Covid continues to be a thing. Stupid people who refuse vaccines and medicine continue to die in record numbers.

- China does not invade Taiwan and the China bubble does not pop. Everyone continues to be concerned.

- The metaverse will continue to not be a thing.

- A major breakthrough will happen in genomics, possibly related to aging.

- Elon Musk will commit 6 billion to end world hunger. Mostly for the lulz

- Significant legal troubles will arise for Facebook. Ultimately ending up splitting the company. This will make no difference to the social media issues.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#126

Post by addandsubtract »

turbinerneiter wrote: post #59
bshipp wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year. The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.

I'd buy that book.

The Coworking Space at the End of the Universe.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#127

Post by paulpauper »

hackingforfun wrote: post #27
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps inter…

we have the possibilities:

1 crypto crash, stocks rise

2 crypto rise, stocks rise

3 crypto crash, stocks fall

4 crypto rise, stocks fall

I think #4 is least likely

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#128

Post by Qem »

- Gross' proposal to remove the GIL from Python is accepted;

- Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster;

- Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion;

- China announces deadlines for a manned mission to the Moon;

- Kamala Harris becomes first female US president, after Joe Biden passes away;

- WHO announces discovery of Covid-19 Omega strain;

- Whistleblower reveals NSA is collecting the bookmarks, passwords, ID numbers and passport numbers stolen by Microsoft Edge, as revealed in https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/11/is-microsoft-...

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#130

Post by tuatoru »

armchairhacker wrote: post #98
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

Yes, covid is endemic now. Everyone will just get on with life.

Over time mask wearing will fade away. With luck the annual covid vaccination will be be free (and mandatory for many occupations) and it will be combined with an annual flu shot, and under-12s will get it also.

(Super cynical remark: for a decade or more policy wonks have been agonising about the coming "tsunami" of healthcare needs as the Boomers age, and the political pressure to provide that care--Boomers know how to vote! I think that government planners secretly won't be too unhappy that covid takes out some of the sickest, most high-need elders.)

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