Payment for order flow will be banned, to the detriment of retail investors.
Why would it be banned? Doesn't wall street love order flow?
Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
81–90 of 273 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
>During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard. that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
Timing the market is a hopeless task. We do not know yet if our treasuries will make an attempt to wean themselves off cheap credit or not. I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot. I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
What precisely is going to stop it? Where else is the safety-seeking money going to go? Even the periodic threat of a gratuitous default doesn't rattle US bond prices.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#83- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
I think your last prediction is right, but targeting the wrong generation. The oldest Gen Z's are 25 which isn't old enough to be differentiated from the normal spending habits of broke young adults. It's the younger half of Millennials that are the ones to worry about because this would be the time where it's expected they would start having kids and buying houses and such but culturally they've got way more in comm…
You are so cute with your nihilistic anger, do you really think you can teach Gen X anything about that?
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#84CPI & PPI will remain high.
Despite that, central banks won't meaningfully tapper or raise rates (some have already started, and more will try, but soon they will revert to low/current rates).
Inequality will continue to get worse.
Despite that, wealth will not get taxed.
The Great Resignation will not happen (even though we're told it already is/has happened).
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#85There will be more slow "disclosure" of UFO/UAP life
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care.…
It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.
Yeah, the privilege is absolutely nuts. I've had to make very concrete plans to move if elections in my state ever starts to turn really red. I don't give two shits about most politics, but I have zero choice but huddle up against the Democrats because they're the only ones not actively trying to harm me and at least pay lip service to my issue. In the absence of R's treatment of minorities, stupid manufactured culture war wedge issues, and sudden onset bootlicking, I would probably be one. I don't get that choice though. Like the only thing that has kept me safe the past decade is my state supreme court and the ACLU.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#87Peace on Earth.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#88Huawei/HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations. This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
It doesn't matter where they are fab'ed. There is so much pressure worldwide to not add them to communications infrastructure by those that depend on US defense (basically everyone outside of Russia an China) that, if anything, I think this situation gets worse for these two.
As it is now they (Huawei and ZTE) cannot fab the chips they have designed for their base stations, meaning the rollout of 5G in China is in danger.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#89Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#90In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023. At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current >$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies…
> In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023.
Very interesting, transfer of such a financial liability as Scotland from UK to EU may even offset at least some of the Brexit damage! Followed by more Pikachu faces, but under different flags.