Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

Just curious what kind of predictions you have for the upcoming years 2022, 2023, 2024.

I think the obvious one would be the EV wars. Also the delayed shipping dates for those vehicles. IE: If you order an EV truck now you wont get it until 2024.

Hopefully staying remote and rent not going up, but one can only hope...

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again.

- The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices.

- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.

- Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.

- Mainly due to supply issues, we won't get a taste of any AR/VR metaverse type stuff next year. There will be a lot of hype-laden news articles about it, but nobody will actually live this future yet.

- Nothing will happen in China with Evergrande or any of these other companies. Nor will China invade Taiwan (yet).

- The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. People don't realize how widespread this sentiment is in Gen Z, which doesn't need excessive consumerism to be happy, all they need is a computer. It is unclear what effects this will have on the economy.

Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren't too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever.

Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field.

During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.

We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly.

The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.

If I finally get an RTX3080 I might be OK with that outcome.

Sad to say this sounds nowhere near as bad as the scenarios at the low end of my estimation error bars for how next year could go.