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Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

nytimes.com

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Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#181

Post by dogma1138 »

oasisbob wrote: post #175
andbberger wrote: post #100

Thing is, it's ridiculously to create smallpox just from the sequence. A grad student could do it easily. You order DNA in a few parts (the full sequence is one of few things you can't just order), splice them together, transfect it into a cell line and in about a week you're manufacturing smallpox

Smallpox has a genome with approximately 200k base pairs. I think you're underestimating the difficulty of synthesizing and amplifying a full genome of this size.

How different is it to other pox viruses? You might need a few snips…

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#182

Post by dogma1138 »

programmarchy wrote: post #115
14 wrote: post #73

As I mentioned this years ago here I once found microscope slides in my grandpa basement labeled small pox. He was a doctor/ scientist. Everyone said that the slides would contain inactive virus that were of no threat. I’ve long gotten rid of them because I haven’t owned a microscope in ages and with the internet can always look up small pox there.

You can see smallpox with a microscope? I thought viruses were too small to be seen except by electron microscopes.

Outside of an electron microscope not really, they are in the femtometer range.

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#183

Post by lazide »

killjoywashere wrote: post #132
lazide wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re trying to decide how big a risk it is that there are other vials out there, definitely. Especially since we’ve stopped wide spread vaccination as it’s considered eradicated. If some gov’t lab deep in Siberia has some samples - how big a problem would i be? actually?

Spritz it on some freshly laundered towels in a 5-star hotel (lots of international travelers) and you have a hot mess fast. Same thing in a Motel 6, you get longer dwell the in the first country before it spreads overseas.

That was the 80’s and 90’s ‘wake up in a cold sweat’ nightmare, when one wasn’t having it about nukes, the Cold War, and MAD anyway.

One can hope that anyone with the resources and intelligence to pull that off, would 1) have something better and more useful to do with their lives, and 2) would have someone they care about somewhere and realize it would almost certainly blow back on them too.

Definitely not guaranteed, but so far seems to be panning out. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#184

Post by capableweb »

jacquesm wrote: post #51
_jal wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that too. But then I use vintage lab glassware labeled Hydrochloric Acid and Potassium Hydroxide for oil & vinegar containers.

Let's hope nobody has a similar sense of humor and replaces the contents with that which it says on the label.

Luckily you rarely pour oil or vinegar directly into your mouth. Usually you pour it onto something else, and you'd discover that it contains the wrong liquid.

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#185

Post by andbberger »

oasisbob wrote: post #175
andbberger wrote: post #100

Thing is, it's ridiculously to create smallpox just from the sequence. A grad student could do it easily. You order DNA in a few parts (the full sequence is one of few things you can't just order), splice them together, transfect it into a cell line and in about a week you're manufacturing smallpox

Smallpox has a genome with approximately 200k base pairs. I think you're underestimating the difficulty of synthesizing and amplifying a full genome of this size.

Grad student I know says he could do it in a week

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#186

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 »

trevyn wrote: post #172
A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an interesting question and I am inclined to answer it, but I don't want to assume the meaning behind it. Could you narrow it down a little to make sure I don't misinterpret it?

> When you see something that does not seem belong where it is, you cannot pretend that did not see it. 1) How do you decide if something “belongs where it is”? 2) If a large proportion of a society agreed on a decision function and behaved as you suggest, is there a straightforward way an adversary could take advantage of this situation? 3) Bonus: Is there evidence this is happening today?

>> 1) How do you decide if something “belongs where it is”?

Experience and training. I just went through somewhat extensive system testing. Without going into specifics, there were several instances of 'expected behavior' vs 'actual behavior'. But this example may be a little too esoteric.

Lets say I walk around my house and see a book nested in a tree growing next to the fence. Does the book belong there? I would venture it does not. Reasonable person standard probably could apply here.

>> 2) If a large proportion of a society agreed on a decision function and behaved as you suggest, is there a straightforward way an adversary could take advantage of this situation?

Yes. And, in a sense, it is already being exploited in most visible way via social media. But I disagree with the phrasing of your question, because I think US society already behaves this way, which is precisely why it is being exploited.

>> 3) Bonus: Is there evidence this is happening today?

See #2.

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#187

Post by [deleted] »

323 wrote: post #158

The sequence of the smallpox virus is publicly available: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/9627521 What sort of labs have the skills to reverse genetics it into a cowpox backbone? Are we talking 2-3 labs in the world, or basically any decent lab? Could a PhD in virology/microbiology do it?

[deleted]

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#188

Post by ajvs »

rasengan wrote: post #177

https://news.yahoo.com/bill-gates-warns-smallpox-terror-0001... Just like he said about covid.

I'm curious what kind of privileged insight could Gates have when he's just a billionaire with no expertise and special clearance in this domain? Or is this such a high likelihood scenario that it's the first thing any billionaire would come up with?

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#189

Post by rossdavidh »

kupiakos wrote: post #138
rossdavidh wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the flu, and on how effective that year's flu vaccine is. The 1918-1919 flu had its highest mortality rate in the young adult range, where it was unquestionably higher than covid-19 (although the lack of PCR tests or equivalent back then make it difficult to arrive at precise numbers infected). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Epidemiology_and_p...

Comparing modern death rates to the 1919 flu, and to historical smallpox infection, is not useful. Medical technology has come a long way in a century and so average mortality rates have dropped for all diseases. 2019 and 2020 had particularly dangerous flu seasons and were still significantly less deadly than COVID.

2019-20 and 2020-21 were both actually milder flu seasons than normal, I believe you might have been thinking of the 2018-19 flu season?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Also, the principal advantage modern medicine had in these flu seasons, compared to 1918-1919, was that we had an effective vaccine for the most at-risk population to take, and the most at-risk were not the ones most likely to be out and about working. I've never seen a convincing explanation of why the 1918-1919 flu hit young adults the hardest, but whatever the reason, we're really lucky covid-19 did not work that way.

Re: Vials labeled ‘smallpox’ are found in Pennsylvania laboratory

#190

Post by bastardoperator »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #156
bastardoperator wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.

Your comment is going to age like skim milk. Covid killed so many people because it was novel. It'll likely decline year over year as the population either develops antibodies or dies (of covid or natural causes).

  "likely"
That doesn't sound very confident...
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