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Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

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Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like it definitely helps if worms are a problem, and maybe possibly helps without, to the extent that further research is justified, but not so much that we should dose the world with ivermectin just in case.

And I would add that there are now two drugs who are known to work better, in addition to monoclonal antibodies and multiple vaccines with more than 7 billion doses administered for over a year... Ivermectin MIGHT work... but really... let's move on.

Thymalin is by far the most effective treatment, people 1re simply too scientifically illiterate to realize it

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#42

My step-son was recently prescribed a small one off dose of ivermectin by a dermatologist to deal with a rather resistant case of scabies he acquired at a sports tournament. It took the pharmacy a couple of days to source, because signficant controls had to be put in place around prescribing it due to well, I'm just going to say what I think - the amazing capacity for the Internet to deliver dumbassery to people who…

Yes, and what's more: how easy it is to enlist people to push such a bullshit story further than it would ever go on its own. That is the really bad side of this, the weaponizing of social media to do real world harm to entire populations.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#43
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most scientists/doctors believed at one point that ulcers were caused by "stress". My father lost half his stomach to an ulcer surgery. Nowadays ulcers are cured with antibiotics in the span of a week. Don't put much stock in what crowds "believe" to be true, _especially_ when _not_ believing it means they can't work in their field.

That's science working as intended: theories getting replaced by better theories. There is plenty that we are probably going to find out more about in the future that will invalidate some of what we believe today to be true. But that's fine, as long as we stick to the scientific method that will all come out, even if it takes a while. Science has brought us further in 400 years than anything that came before. Right n…

Sure, but my point is "consensus" doesn't necessarily mean "truth", even though the vast majority of people use the terms interchangeably. "Everyone but one person is wrong" is a situation we've seen numerous times before in the history of science. And when the matters of social acceptability, prestige, politics, and just plain ability to make a living enter into the consideration, very, very few people would even be willing to challenge the status quo. I wouldn't. I have mouths to feed.

I'm fully resigned to the fact that we won't know for sure if Ivermectin helps with any of this shit for at least another decade until tensions subside. Could be that millions of people died while they didn't have to. Could be that it's total horseshit. There's no way to know, and "consensus" means next to nothing in these circumstances.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#45
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That literally isn't an argument. It is a statement. And if anyone who said "many scientists/doctors believe it to work against Covid-19" is getting banned, then that statement has 0 signal. As Scott points out in this article, without knowing about the parasitic worm situation https://ivmmeta.com/ is both reasonable and moderately convincing.

In my opinion it should be an argument, especially for people who don't have that expertise. Also, even the "moderately convincing" evidence is in my opinion not nearly enough. It might be if Covid-19 were a modestly important disease with only a few labs and clinics running working on it. But it's not. Throw enough shit against the wall, eventually something will stick by chance. This is a globally distributed exper…

> In my opinion it should be an argument,

It is a fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority . To make an argument, there needs to be an argument.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#46
Love the final explanation for how ivermectin can be incidentally good for COVID-19 patients, even if it does nothing to COVID-19 directly.

In fact, as the author cites from another researcher, the trials are a strong piece of evidence for "add[ing] ivermectin to mass drug administration programs." In other words, global medical welfare, where we just give everyone a bunch of a cheap and effective medications to counteract the most prolific diseases. In addition to reducing mortality from diseases targeted by the medication, it will probably reduce incidental mortality when people contract multiple conditions at once. I.e. getting ivermectin for a detected COVID-19 infection has a 10% chance of helping you, because you have a 10% chance of having an undetected worm infection that will kill you if your immune system is suppressed by drugs that are used to prevent COVID-19 from killing you.

I do think the ending political metaphor doesn't quite fit, however. I see more parallels with workplace politics than an alien invasion, for why our societies have become so divided on relatively meaningless issues. Uniting disparate factions to work towards a common goal is an uphill battle that sees more failure than success, most often in our workplaces. To me, the ivermectin drama was just another example of an emergent situation that wasn't optimally handled by a collection of random individuals, who despite the best intentions, were unable to unite a group. Doesn't make them bad people, or mean they have the wrong approach. Just means they weren't ready to tackle such a difficult challenge. Positive outcomes take dedicated effort, they don't come automatically because we assume the status quo is good enough to us immune to random chance.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#47
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the first anti-Ivermectin argument that you want to believe... I discounted a highly biased echo chamber in social media and more traditional media and went with 30-odd studies that appear to have been assembled in good faith even now. I changed my mind immediately on seeing "Parasitic worms are a significant confounder in some ivermectin studies, such that they made them get a positive result even when hon…

I have a pretty good memory for comment histories and you've been pushing this for far more than it is worth. That this single article would change your mind is fortunate, but I do not suspect that to hold true for the bulk of the conspiracy peddlers that remain.

Isn't this an example of some rigid and ineffective thinking patterns?

Article publishes sound arguments, doesn't talk down to the audience, admits problems with appeals to authority... and converts a conspiracy believer!

...No way, there is no way that can possibly work, the others are way too dumb, and the convert is a bad person... basically anything to just go back to pretending appeals to authority work. Despite clear evidence to the contrary. Or lamenting that they don't. I'm drawing some parallels with miracle cures here ;)

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#48
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is little evidence of such analysis being suppressed. I think it is just relatively rare, because it is a lot of work and takes particular skill. Most people who care about this research are indeed crackpots, unfortunately. Those who aren't have mostly moved on from Ivermectin because they have better things to do. Ivermectin is being tested in large RCTs, as it should. If it works, it will be used. If it doesn…

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Because 'works' in a medical context is a boolean that encompasses everything from 'order of magnitude lower chances of death' (effective vaccines) to '1% relative reduction in death' (off-label use of some random drug not intended to target improvement in COVID recovery), so the focus has naturally been on finding treatments with high effect sizes and distributing them as quickly as possible. Not to mention the herd immunity element to vaccines.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#49
This is worth reading purely for the writing alone. Scott Alexander is a treasure:

> As best I can tell, this is some kind of Egyptian trial. It might or might not be an RCT; it says stuff like “Patients were self-allocated to the treatment groups; the first 3 days of the week for the intervention arm while the other 3 days for symptomatic treatment”. Were they self-allocated in the sense that they got to choose? Doesn’t that mean it’s not random? Aren’t there seven days in a week? These are among the many questions that Elalfy et al do not answer for us.

Re: Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like it definitely helps if worms are a problem, and maybe possibly helps without, to the extent that further research is justified, but not so much that we should dose the world with ivermectin just in case.

And I would add that there are now two drugs who are known to work better, in addition to monoclonal antibodies and multiple vaccines with more than 7 billion doses administered for over a year... Ivermectin MIGHT work... but really... let's move on.

The bit most people are interested in is the potential prophylactic effect, not so much treatment once you have it (at least the people who are following the science and not buying into the weird cute claims.) It having an apparent antiviral effect during treatment indicates there's a possibility for mechanism of action that can prevent catching covid. It might be noise in the data, but studying it in large trials is justified imo.
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