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Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

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Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#111
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how higher interest rates on savings accounts would meaningfully impact the middle class. The median savings account balance is just $5,300[1]. And the thing about savings accounts is that they generally do get spent down periodically - they typically aren't used to continuously squirrel away cash for decades, so you're not compounding interest over the long term. You might save for 5 years and the…

You get what you incentivize. We are currently incentivizing debt over savings, so that's what we get. When I was in college, the bank would give something like 6-7% on savings. If I had a million dollars in the bank I could comfortably live off that interest for life. Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot r…

Was there ever a time where a savings account of $1M both provided a livable income over many decades and didn’t lose value to inflation?

What were inflation rates while savings rates were 6-7%?

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#112
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You get what you incentivize. We are currently incentivizing debt over savings, so that's what we get. When I was in college, the bank would give something like 6-7% on savings. If I had a million dollars in the bank I could comfortably live off that interest for life. Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot r…

> Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot riskier than bank interest. Yes, people investing in productive enterprise is actually better for real output, prices, and generally overall welfare.

What do you think banks do with your money, exactly?

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I know I'd much rather have a solid 6-7% interest return than a flaky market return. And college debt holders, mortgage holders, generally impoverished people would rather have lower rates on the debt that they have. They'd also rather have jobs, which again comes with more investment. They'd also like to have a higher quality of life, again which comes with more investment in capital/production/real output.

>generally impoverished people would rather have lower rates on the debt that they have. Generally impoverished people aren't granted lower rates because of the credit system. They typically pay usury rates. Only people with existing assets / collateral get low rates. >They'd also rather have jobs, which again comes with more investment. Generally impoverished people have shit jobs, that's why they are generally impo…

1. If you get higher interest rate returns, how do you think that is being paid for if poor people aren't getting higher rates?

2. Unexpectedly lower interest rates increase employer competition in the labor market, raising wages. This is well studied.

3. The quality of life of a poor person in the US is unimaginably better than that of someone ranked relatively the same 100 years ago. That is due to investment.

Denying those massive quality life improvements is absurd, although increasingly popular in our out-of-touch political climate.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#114
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You get what you incentivize. We are currently incentivizing debt over savings, so that's what we get. When I was in college, the bank would give something like 6-7% on savings. If I had a million dollars in the bank I could comfortably live off that interest for life. Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot r…

> Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot riskier than bank interest. Yes, people investing in productive enterprise is actually better for real output, prices, and generally overall welfare.

Consumers buying is what drives production. Not investment.

> better [...] prices, and generally overall welfare.

How does investment do that? Plenty examples of the opposite can be found. I find those claims baseless.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#115
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compounding returns makes growth exponential. When you look at it that way the rich guy is just further up the curve, but you're on the same trajectory. In your simple example (25% returns annualised) he's only 31 years ahead! Don't you just feel better now?

Let's do the math for compounding returns. Suppose 7% growth for 30 years, same Person A and B: $1000 * (1.07 ^ 30) = 7,612.25 $1,000,000 * (1.07 ^ 30) = 7,612,255.04 Proportionally, It's still 1000:1. So we see compounding doesn't change the relative difference. But now we're getting to absolute gap that's simply uncoverable by wage income, unless you can land in the professional management class, which effectively…

If wages also go up by 7% then the absolute gap definitely is uncoverable by wage income.

Sure, they often don't but the reason they don't has little to do with QE. After all, the entire point of QE and monetary stimulus in general is central banks are concerned that not enough jobs are being created and real wage cuts and layoffs will result. And in that scenario where credit is expensive and businesses are looking at layoffs, our wealthy investor is still getting 7% returns, just from offering expensive short term credit to struggling businesses rather than seeing the long term shareholder value of thriving businesses rise. But the worker is even further from catching them up, because they're struggling to find a job.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now if I put a million dollars in the bank, I lose wealth due to inflation, so I'm incentivized to put it in a fund or something now, which is a lot riskier than bank interest. Yes, people investing in productive enterprise is actually better for real output, prices, and generally overall welfare.

What do you think banks do with your money, exactly?

Loan it out? What is your real question? I would rather not play Plato to your Socrates in a comment thread.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the FED “Fed” ( Fed eral Reserve), not “FED”.

FED (in all caps) is a common way to refer to the Federal Reserve, as is the Fed. Don't ask me why.

IME its common in two groups of people:

1. American anti-Fed conspiracy theorists, and

2. Non-Americans who see the #1 without understanding the nature and assume its a standard US usage.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FED (in all caps) is a common way to refer to the Federal Reserve, as is the Fed. Don't ask me why.

IME its common in two groups of people: 1. American anti-Fed conspiracy theorists, and 2. Non-Americans who see the #1 without understanding the nature and assume its a standard US usage.

My personal exposure is a python method from a quant library called get_FED()

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#119

It doesn't necessarily, but there are some issues to think about: 1) Interest rates that are low mean that middle-class savings accounts don't grown in size. QE requires low interest rates as I understand it. 2) MMT is linked to QE but guess what, an oligarchic system isn't going to distribute QE capital to middle class and poor people, it's going to go into the pockets of the ruling class. In any case, you really ca…

> QE requires low interest rates as I understand it. It’s the other way around. QE lowers interest rates; that’s the main purpose. The idea is that low interest rates force investment in risky ventures (since safe ones are offering low yields) and those risky investments on net will generate excess economic growth.

> those risky investments on net will generate excess economic growth.

Economic growth comes from increased consumer spending. Not from investment. We will all learn that lesson very soon.

Re: Does QE Cause Wealth Inequality?

#120
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was his thesis, but it's since been questioned/refuted: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16160.pdf > Using a sample of 19 advanced economies spanning over 30 years, I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests. Results are robust to several alternative estimates of r-g. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/11/28/economists-are... http://davidsplinter.com/AutenSplin…

Piketty on Góes's IMF paper: > Piketty's response[55] noted, however, that Góes used measures of income inequality rather than wealth inequality, and inappropriately took the interest rate on sovereign debt as his index of the rate of return on capital, which makes his results not commensurate with those of Piketty's study. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Ce... [55] FR: https://www.lesecho…

Yeah the Auten-Splinter research is the most contemporary critique, relative to the 2014 IMF paper, and is the one that's most widely accepted now. Piketty, Saez, et al have yet to really address anything there.
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