Earlier quoted context omitted.
I live in Seattle. I have an engineer’s salary. I cannot presently afford a condo, let alone a house. By the time I have enough for the down payment, I will again not be able to afford a home.
You need an engineer's salary combined with another engineer's salary or very productive equity compensation. You're basically competing with folks who have both an engineer's salary(or two) combined with equity from their previous house.
Will real estate ever be normal again?
531–540 of 620 posts
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#532Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If the real problem was always zoning, wouldn't dense cities like NYC and Shanghai be cheaper than average, not way over average? It's not about supply by itself, it's supply vs demand. Big cities have big populations and economies, which means a lot of demand. But as far as zoning goes, note that like other metros, NYC has actually effectively downzoned areas over time; in fact, a huge proportion of buildings ther…
NYC housing has pushed outwards into Queens and the Bronx, manhattan is less populated these days because it lacks full time residents (the apartments are still sold, but their owners list upstate/Connecticut/long island properties as their permanent addresses, and they have many less occupants in them even when full, not like the turn of the century when more than a few people were crammed into small apartments). >…
I'm pretty sure this is wrong. Yes, it's the first answer that comes up if you Google this stat, but this is off by a factor of 3 or so. Before the pandemic San Francisco had a density of around 18K/sqm. Although a lot of people left SF during the pandemic, 6.2k/sqm is still way to low.
Now, that we have that out of the way. In general, I agree with you. Most cities that have a high population density are expensive places to live. It's a good thing to allow cities to accommodate more people, but those places will still have a high cost of living, because many people still want to live there.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#533Earlier quoted context omitted.
> As Adam Smith said, the true price of everything is in human labor. Cite? Also who died and made Adam Smith's word synonymous with fact? Last I checked the true price of anything is the price I have to pay to acquire it, which is incidentally more in line with Adam Smith's actual quote which was: "The real price of everything, what everything really costs to the man who wants to acquire it, is the toil and trouble…
Wealth of nations, book 1, actually. "toil and trouble" could be interpreted as "labour". I certainly take that interpretation. though Smith really didn't make much use of the labour theory of value, as he thought it would be less relevant in an advanced economy. Riccardo and especially Marx developed and used it much more. (For Marx see the first part of Capital)
You are free to interpret it any way you like, but then taking your interpretation and saying that is what Adam smith was trying to say, when it is quite literally not what he said, nor even close to what he said, is called lying, and that is not really okay.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#534Earlier quoted context omitted.
Treasury made loans with repayment schedules to specific businesses. The Fed purchased certain kinds of assets to hold temporarily on their balance sheet. They both filled different roles - one was meant to manage inflation and the other to secure the stability and function of the markets. The Fed's dual mandate is to maintain maximum employment and low, predictable inflation rates over medium term. Spotting Ford in…
> low, predictable inflation rates It seems to me that tripling the monetary base and investing two parts of it in MBS is going to have an inflationary effect on house prices. Am I being obtuse here?
Fractional reserve lending means that an increase in the monetary base is a result of lower interest rates - money supply operates on a pull model not a push model. Lower interest rates mean a more expensive house costs the same per month when mortgaged, which in turn increased the outstanding supply and balance of mortgages, hence new money. Lower interest rates increase the price of houses, but to a much lower extent the affordability of those houses - which is more likely to be measured on the monthly cost of a 30 year fixed loan. It will move the goalposts on down payments, however, but down payments are only 2-20% of the cost of the house.
In my opinion, however, I believe zoning to be a much bigger contributor to overall affordability.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#535Earlier quoted context omitted.
I do not think communities shouldn't change - they do change and grow all the time. Have you ever been to a town meeting? >>Would you be willing to pay an uncapped land-value tax on your nicer area? Of course — WE ALREADY DO —, as pointed out above, everyone already pays much higher taxes - based on land and building value, uncapped - to maintain the environment. (Please do try to keep up and have a clue what you are…
> Those changes are fine and should be decided by those affected, not some set of interlopers Those "interlopers" are people's sons and daughters who want to live where they grew up, growing families that need more space, the retired on a fixed income, the working poor struggling to stay housed, those who spend hours commuting, etc. All of these people are your neighbors, not the enemy. > who just want to basically s…
I notice that your example start with actual locals growing out of a locale to people who have nothing to do with the locale.
Whether someone is enemy or friend all depends on attitude. Are you trying to work with and build upon what the previous generations have built, or are you trying to merely appropriate it because you don't like the price of single-family zoning?
>>That depends on your definition of "value". Do you mean the well-being of everyone in the community? or the market price of your house?
The market price of the house has little to do with it (and could plausibly increase w/more building by inducing local demand). For me, and everyone I know, market value is not motivating.
What IS motivating is threats to the CHARACTER and ENVIRONMENT of the locale - especially the environment - open land, walking trails, actual wildlife and an ecosystem hosting endangered species, butterflies, birds, etc..
THIS is real value to the people who choose to live here.
And in fact, the property values are not that great, and certainly have not increased like other areas.
So, NO, property values are NOT even close to the top priority of me or anyone I know in this or any other such town I lived in. Yet, in your limited understanding of the issues, property values are all you see.
>>the retired on a fixed income, the working poor struggling to stay housed,
ihe town I currently live in and surrounding towns have all approved some senior and low-income housing developments (and denied other damaging proposals).
>>those who spend hours commuting, etc. Yes, from here commuting is hours to the city center; about 45min in an off time, but nearly two hours at commute time. So, building more here will just create more massive commuting issues. In fact, an MIT study in the area found that it was only the addition of about 250 commuters in an area of three adjacent towns that caused the commuting traffic to go from doable to regularly 'gelling' into intolerable jams — literally just over 100 extra units now regularly extra choked traffic in the whole region.
>>For many people jobs, amenities, and culture make for desirable neighborhoods. Single family single use zoning doesn't contribute to any of that.
Fine, so find an area that doesn't have single-family zoning and build that up for more jobs, amenities and culture.
Do not presume that you have some right to come and literally trash the place because the population density and pricing is not to your liking.
That is no different than some developer saying that he should be able to put up a condo development, strip mall, and office zone in a National Park because he thinks it has too low a population density.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#536Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think people who parrot this line try to ignore the total cost of their mortgage being quite different from the purchase price of their home, property taxes, repairs, etc. As a lifelong renter, I’ve done quite well by keeping my rent low (my preference is studio/1-bedrooms in relatively dense urban areas) and putting extra money into the market. 30 years from when I started renting, I’ll have quite a lot to show fo…
Screw the apartment. You could save so much money living out of a van. I honestly don't understand this line of thinking. "Why do people even want [tangible good]?" If an explanation is really needed: it's nice to have a large, private space. People like cars in garages, a room for their work, a room to cook, a room to relax, a room to sleep, a room to store stuff, etc. Why do people bother with any of these things?…
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#537Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't really matter. What matters is that in Japan supply and demand are equal. You could achieve the same outcome in the US with more supply.
No, demand is actually down in Japan[0]. That chart shows residential housing vs. under 65 year-old population. So demand is decreasing but residential RE is rising slightly. Your analysis is also ignoring that services cost a lot more in the US than they did in the past. You can't build cheaply in NYC or SF or Seattle anymore because construction workers cost more. [0]: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xDrQEcMyF5Y…
Yes, SF has the second-highest construction costs in the US. $330/sqft. [1] Average home prices are $900-1200/sqft.
[1] https://www.investsf.com/why-san-francisco-has-the-second-hi...
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#538Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sorry. You’re going to have to move. Owning is for investors, banks, and other financial entities. /s The best part is that if things go upside down in a few years we get to bail them out.
Aren’t most houses owned by their inhabitants, rather than evil corporate entities?
That said, we've past our historical high of owner-occupied homes. That trend is downward.
As ever, ~0 rentals are owned by the inhabitant. What changed there is that individual-owned rental properties are no longer the norm.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#539Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why don't you move to a cheaper place/smaller city? I don't understand why there are some many homeless people in big cities (i.e NYC). If people would just move to cheaper areas/cities the whole issue of housing would be fixed.
I wonder if there could be an evaporative cooling like effect in play here? That is, everyone who is willing to move has already moved; as a result, the remaining population biases towards those unwilling to move.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#540Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this argument gets confused because some people refer to it as an investment/asset while others refer to it in emotional terms as a means to pursue happiness. They aren’t always the same thing.
For most people it's both. There's a reason home ownership is often a component of "the American Dream". Owning land and a house is a huge step in status and financial security. Owning a house is also a huge luxury. It's strange to deny either of these realities. Some people don't want luxuries, okay, but it should be clear that nearly everyone does.
I'll happily deny this reality. Owning a home is a huge luxury to some, but it is also a huge burden to some.