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Will real estate ever be normal again?

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Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#521

Post by sushsjsuauahab »

Izkata wrote: post #265
TulliusCicero wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jesus Christ, for the last time, upzoning isn't about taking away anyone's home away from them. It's about allowing homes that are currently illegal, not forcing anything. Some people want what you want, others are fine with less space if it means less money. Upzoning means they get to choose what to do with what property they own.

Note the > > land, trees, and nice quality living. I have the feeling they're talking about land in their area that they don't own, that for whatever reason is prevented from being used for new homes, and their worry is that zoning changes allowing it would ruin the quality of life there by removing the greenery and open spaces.

This is the only comment I've responded to in my thread.

I live in the woods in a rainy location. Everyone has 0.5 acres and lots of trees. The grocery store is 10 mins away and we only have one major road in and out.

For those who want to live a different style of life, please go live it.

But for us who are living here, it seems to me we want to preserve our way of life so that we don't have to deal with the pollution, noise, and safety issues that some larger cities are having trouble with.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#522

Post by bumby »

aeternum wrote: post #350
bumby wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any measures of what percent of those pre-2008 builds were speculative investments vs. occupant-owners? It reminds me of the scene in The Big Short when he knew the system was on a precipice of disaster when the a stripper was telling him about the multiple homes she owns. It seems to me many bubbles are the result of speculation with easy credit and I’m not sure 2008 can be considered a “perturbation” inste…

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EOWNOCCUSQ176N

Thank you. Maybe you can help me understand this correctly.

Your link shows the "owner-occupied" housing was relatively flat during the housing crises. The link below shows new housing units were still increasing during that time.[1] Does that imply most of the new builds were investment properties (i.e. not owner occupied) during this time period?

[1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#523

Post by bosie »

arcticbull wrote: post #471
bosie wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> blended average across the US > One caveat is it does reflect only new construction. I am not sure what a blended average is but averaging new constructions makes your stats utterly useless? Where are people living mostly and how does the real estate market go there.

It's the average price of new construction over time. Generally one would not expect new construction to come in dramatically under market right?

under market, no. but due to locality there are a lot of different real estate markets. dragging prices of wyoming into the dataset when you are interested in nyc or sf makes just no sense. then you have the problem of the different types of new constructions too. i don't see how averaging helps here.

at least where i am looking (european country), cities have roughly seen a 100% price increase since 2010. income hasn't kept up with inflation or the housing prices.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#524

Post by seanmcdirmid »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #308
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't it make sense though? In 1910, manhattan was expensive but a lot of people still lived/worked there. The apartments would be crazily subdivided so you could fit 10 people into a 3 or even 2 bedroom. Now they are all owned by wallstreet bankers with small families, and they spend much of their time somewhere else (they might not even list their manhattan apartment as their "main domicile" during the census).

Demand for Manhattan apartments is crazy high, it's just illegal for taller ones to be built to meet demand most of the time. People think Manhattan is mostly skyscrapers, but the reality is very different. Only a small portion of the land has high rises on it, just glance at Google Maps with 3D view on.

Manhattan is mostly multi level apartment buildings, at least 4 stories or so. I don't know why your point would contradict mine. Yes, units in the taller skyscrapers are more expensive and sell for tens of millions of dollars, if not more.

I wonder how NYC would do with cheap 30 story Chinese concrete apartment blocks? (30 stories, because any taller requires steel, at least with construction practices that use cheap migrant labor).

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#525

Post by alexose »

jurassic wrote: post #315
alexose wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hello fellow 36 year old! I think graduating into the 2008 mess gives us peculiar point of view. Two years older, we might have already had burgeoning careers. Two years younger, we might have avoided it altogether. I remember so much impending doom from those years. Pretty different than the current sentiment.

Two years younger reporting in, things were still terrible for the Class of 2010 graduates. New grad unemployment didn't recover until 2012.

Didn't mean to imply that things were back to normal by 2010, only that it was (in theory) possible to prepare for it a little. In my case, there's no way I would have dropped CS in favor of anthropology if I knew what my prospects would look like!

But yeah, it was rough for everyone. Even now, young careers are shaped by what happened in 2008.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#526

Post by alexose »

bradlys wrote: post #363
alexose wrote: post #74

I know this may be sacrilege to some, but: Consider moving to a less desirable place if you can. I got priced out of my hometown of Seattle. So I moved to a small town in rural Oregon and I couldn't be happier. The combination of spending comparatively little on housing + a tech salary is hard to beat. I have my own shop! It feels like freedom, even if it comes at the cost of being near my extended family.

> I got priced out of my hometown of Seattle. So I moved to a small town in rural Oregon and I couldn't be happier. Idk. I grew up in rural Oregon. And I hate Seattle with a passion. But I don’t know if having meth heads for neighbors is really the way I’d go. Going for more rural/less-expensive regions might be beneficial for some but there are some serious downsides and costs for people with children, people who li…

Yep, remote work is key. I wouldn't recommend someone move to a rural area if they didn't have access to remote work.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#527

Post by jshen »

blntechie wrote: post #299
jshen wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is good advice financially, though there is more to life than money. First, if by “tech salary” you mean a software engineers salary or a product managers, then you should be able to afford a house in a place like Seattle. It might be tight if you are early in your career, but it is very doable. The main reason this is likely to be bad financially is that your house won’t appreciate like a house in…

>The main reason this is likely to be bad financially is that your house won’t appreciate like a house in Seattle. So the only solution then is endless appreciation of house prices and salaries?

That’s how our economic system works. It’s also the only possibility if population continues to grow. There are no silver bullets here.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#528

Post by jshen »

t-writescode wrote: post #170
jshen wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is good advice financially, though there is more to life than money. First, if by “tech salary” you mean a software engineers salary or a product managers, then you should be able to afford a house in a place like Seattle. It might be tight if you are early in your career, but it is very doable. The main reason this is likely to be bad financially is that your house won’t appreciate like a house in…

I live in Seattle. I have an engineer’s salary. I cannot presently afford a condo, let alone a house. By the time I have enough for the down payment, I will again not be able to afford a home.

I call bullshit unless you are entry level. The average engineer at a big company with 5 years experience is probably making >$200k all in. I can easily find 2bd 2bath condos and townhomes in Seattle for ~$800k.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#529

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

spiderice wrote: post #22
bravura wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The choice of location is rarely as clear cut or stark as the choice between simply community vs homelessness. For many people, the choice of location involves weighing many competing and hard-to-quantify intangibles and opportunity costs.

Right, but I personally don’t see a scenario where living on the street doesn’t trump every single one of those other factors. In other words, anything that involves me living on the street is a complete non-starter, regardless of how compelling the other factors are. I get that some people really don’t have the option to just move somewhere cheaper. But if that’s at all a possibility, it seems like that should be a…

There has to be a place to live on the other end. That place has to be affordable and safe. There have to have enough funds for the entire family to move. The funds have to last until all of the jobs that pay enough are secured (in our case 3-4).

The funds may also need to last long enough for the wage earners' business to be reestablished or can find an employer who's hiring portal doesn't auto-discard 20 year job gaps (that portal may not exist).

All this assumes earning family members don't have even the most minor of criminal records. It also assumes family members don't have zero credit (which bar most rentals and many employers) after years of frugal living to save up those funds. God help anyone with medical debt.

Just one of these factors can lead to family homelessness, in some city far away from their support systems.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#530

Post by jshen »

t-writescode wrote: post #355
quaesitor wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice excuse. Only works if you want to make 20% down instead of 3%[0] [0] https://www.knowyouroptions.com/buy-overview/affordable-mort...

Well, I tried to put 5% down; but, then I realized how much higher above asking things were selling for; and how people skip out on things like inspections. But I still want inspections, so I ask for them. This puts me down on the list of desireable buyers. I went into a place that was selling for around 300k. I was going to offer as much as 325. I was also willing to go 5k above what the place would appraise for. Th…

You aren’t making a typical engineering salary if you can’t afford a $500k place.
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