Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the free market has failed to provide housing to people Is it really a free market in places like the Bay Area where zoning is so restrictive and NIMBYs can show up to planning meetings to basically block any new construction? It's been pointed out elsewhere in this thread that Japan also had a free market but less restrictive zoning and housing is much more affordable there. The main argument for government effici…
Eminent domain?
Will real estate ever be normal again?
331–340 of 620 posts
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#332The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…
> permanently priced out of home ownership The baby boomers will all die off during your lifetime. There aren’t enough people left to absorb all of their houses. I assume at some point there will be a tremendous glut of empty houses on the market which should dramatically lower prices.
If there are no shocks in the housing market, there will be more than enough investor funds to soak up all boomer housing stock. Rentals and AirBnB will be dominant in a self-perpetuating way, as far as I can tell.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
I live in Seattle. I have an engineer’s salary. I cannot presently afford a condo, let alone a house. By the time I have enough for the down payment, I will again not be able to afford a home.
Nice excuse. Only works if you want to make 20% down instead of 3%[0] [0] https://www.knowyouroptions.com/buy-overview/affordable-mort...
I mean, I get the point of saying that (funding from F&F doesn’t disqualify the applicant), but man does it feel like a quasi-government agency is suggesting needy borrowers should just ask their parents for money.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems pretty simple, I can spend money to rent a place, and after 30 years (rent), have nothing to show for the money I put in, or I can buy a house (mortgage), spend money for 30 years, and then have an asset I own. Not to mention the freedom to do whatever you want to your home / house without having to ask for permission, or being in a position of putting money into an asset that you don't own.
It's not that simple. Right now the interest portion of my mortgage, plus my property taxes, plus my HOA dues, not to mention maintenance and upkeep, is more than what I was paying in rent right before I bought my house. That money is "thrown away" in the same sense as rent is; only money going toward mortgage principal gives me something to show for it. It absolutely would have been more economical to rent than buy.…
If your wages keep up with inflation (say 3% for example), in 10 years you'll be making about 35% more dollars but your housing payment stays the same. If your home value tracks inflation, it will also be up 35% after a decade, but your payment stays the same. And if you're lucky, there may have also been appreciation above inflation. Inflation melts your fixed rate debt and grows the nominal value of your asset, speeding the rate at which you build wealth in the form of home equity.
Over that same period, a renter is certain to have experienced significant increases in their housing costs. They may have saved and invested more than the homeowner over the first few years of homeownership, but as you know this is a long-term game.
I guess it comes down to what form of risk/investing you are most comfortable with and whether you value the intangible lifestyle things like getting to customize things to your liking. Getting to purchase an asset with between 5-33x leverage in the form of low fixed rate debt seems like a pretty unique opportunity for most people who would not be comfortable borrowing for other forms of investment.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#335Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#336Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no other asset I can own that alleviates the financial burden of burning nearly half of my take-home pay in perpetuity to fund some rich landlord's beach vacations.
But it doesn't remove that financial burden entirely (or even close to entirely). You're still paying: * opportunity cost * property taxes * interest
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
Part of the problem with the first item you mentioned is that developers don’t really want to build cheap housing (I guess this is an assumption, but it makes sense financially.) They can make way more money catering to the people who can “afford” to build a $500k home, and people who want a very custom design and lots of space. On the renting end, “luxury” apartments will make more money than really basic cheap unit…
> Part of the problem with the first item you mentioned is that developers don’t really want to build cheap housing (I guess this is an assumption, but it makes sense financially.) This is like saying that Toyota would rather sell Lexuses than Camrys. Yes, it's true, but they sell Camrys anyway. Why? Because the market for luxury is only so big. They can make more money total addressing other parts of the market. So…
Housing doesn’t give you this option. If you don’t want to be homeless you may be able to rent, but that is pretty expensive too.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
Part of the problem with the first item you mentioned is that developers don’t really want to build cheap housing (I guess this is an assumption, but it makes sense financially.) They can make way more money catering to the people who can “afford” to build a $500k home, and people who want a very custom design and lots of space. On the renting end, “luxury” apartments will make more money than really basic cheap unit…
In cities with no zoning todays luxury housing is tomorrows affordable housing. For example in Houston apartments and houses that were touted as luxury in the 80s are slums now.
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is another option: The government could buy/build/offer public housing as an alternative to the free market. It was done in the past and in other countries and I see no reason not to do it now. The way I see it (and the way you put it) the free market has failed to provide housing to people, to an extend that there is no free market solution going forward. If the government (federal/state/county/municipal/etc.)…
> the free market has failed to provide housing to people Is it really a free market in places like the Bay Area where zoning is so restrictive and NIMBYs can show up to planning meetings to basically block any new construction? It's been pointed out elsewhere in this thread that Japan also had a free market but less restrictive zoning and housing is much more affordable there. The main argument for government effici…
Are you sure zoning is the only thing that sets apart the Bay Area from Japan?
Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?
#340The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…
In the early 80s a 13% mortgage rate was not uncommon. People survived. Very little blood was spilled