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Will real estate ever be normal again?

nytimes.com

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Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#91

Post by m348e912 »

User23 wrote: post #65
naveen99 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fed controls only nominal interest rates on treasuries. The real / effective rate is set by the market at auction by adjusting the price on the bonds.

No, no it's not. USD denominated interest rates are whatever the Fed wants them to be. The Fed controls the entire USD yield curve, although that control does weaken a little as maturity goes out into the future, but not more than about 10%. Treasury auctions are kabuki theater[1]. Thanks to the Primary Dealer system it's impossible for an auction to fail. While the nominal rate may bounce around a few basis points,…

Makes you wonder if there could be a scenario where the Fed raises rates for interbank lending and for loans to the general public but maintains a near zero percent interest rate on its own debts. As far I can tell the Fed operates with impunity and can do whatever it wants. So why not stave off inflation while protecting itself at the same time.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#92

Post by ioseph »

thefounder wrote: post #8
WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #5

Renters and buyers are increasingly in the same boat - the one where people with money in the bank are finding there's nowhere to live. In the case of renters, many with savings are facing homelessness - once those savings are burned up on hotels. This isn't a dramatization or overstatement. It's what I'm witnessing personally and very nearly happened to us. We were one of the few to beat long odds and score a place…

Why don't you move to a cheaper place/smaller city? I don't understand why there are some many homeless people in big cities (i.e NYC). If people would just move to cheaper areas/cities the whole issue of housing would be fixed.

* Not everybody can work remotey (nor want to) * Health and Education services tend to be much poorer

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#93

Post by mountainb »

User23 wrote: post #65
naveen99 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fed controls only nominal interest rates on treasuries. The real / effective rate is set by the market at auction by adjusting the price on the bonds.

No, no it's not. USD denominated interest rates are whatever the Fed wants them to be. The Fed controls the entire USD yield curve, although that control does weaken a little as maturity goes out into the future, but not more than about 10%. Treasury auctions are kabuki theater[1]. Thanks to the Primary Dealer system it's impossible for an auction to fail. While the nominal rate may bounce around a few basis points,…

Typically when weaker countries do this, it was once considered a sign of fundamental weakness and a sure sign that a currency crisis was imminent. The US abandoned the same principles in government finance that it once advanced through institutions like the IMF. It's not that it was bad advice; we see the results of the irresponsibility in today's markets. The US is just a big bad 'basket case' without much in the way of financial credibility past what it can dictate through market manipulation.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#94

Post by DannyBee »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #64
syshum wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" land, trees, and nice quality living." are mutually exclusive, High-Density housing is terrible and I NEVER want to live in a highly dense urban settings. My home in the suburbs with 1/2 acre lots is FAR FAR FAR too dense for me... I want less density than that, but newer subdivisions are dropping to 1/4 or 1/5 acre lots, it is terrible

And this is why I do not think carbon emissions will or climate change will ever be curtailed barring the discovery of a new emission-less, highly efficient energy source. The effects of anyone who does individually sacrifice will be offset by the plenty who will opt for 1/2 acre or even 1/4 lots and the energy consumption that must follow.

Why is the right answer to increase the population to unsustainable levels, try to make it up with increased density, and then blame the people who want something different?

You do realize that densifying will not in fact, fix the problem either, it only buys you some time, at the cost of different resources.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#95

Post by bumby »

syshum wrote: post #60
bumby wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you define “protecting” that thing? If it involves, for example, lobbying against high-density housing, that might be part of the problem.

" land, trees, and nice quality living." are mutually exclusive, High-Density housing is terrible and I NEVER want to live in a highly dense urban settings. My home in the suburbs with 1/2 acre lots is FAR FAR FAR too dense for me... I want less density than that, but newer subdivisions are dropping to 1/4 or 1/5 acre lots, it is terrible

Thanks for clarifying. I assume your wording means those three are mutually exclusive with high density housing and not from each other.

This isn’t a knock on you personally so please don’t interpret it as one. But I find a lot of people are in favor of the idea of affordable housing in areas that also have, say, gainful employment but are not in favor of the policies that would actually produce that.

And so we get the equivalent of walled-off communities combined with empty words that just feeds ones identity/ego. At some point people need to live the values they espouse.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#96

Post by mdaniel »

jschveibinz wrote: post #2

Clickbait title. Article is about the real estate prices in Austin, TX after Tesla announced the move there. Will real estate ever be normal again? I think that what's happening in real estate is perfectly normal from an economics point of view. Mortgage rates are extremely low, more people are moving because of remote work opportunities, and the younger folks wanting to buy homes now outnumber the baby boomers, all…

> Zoning regulations seem to have limited the construction of denser, multi-family home options like townhomes, duplexes, etc.

I was curious about that claim and had a look in Berkeley; there are _a lot_ of R2 zoned plots, and while I didn't do the math, just eyeballing the colors I'd guess there are actually more R2 than R1 plots https://www.cityofberkeley.info/gisportal/

The SF map is objectively harder to use, but seems to have a similar "majority is RH-2 zoned" story: https://sfplanning.org/sites/default/files/resources/2019-02...

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#97

Post by bumby »

DannyBee wrote: post #94
lotsofpulp wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is why I do not think carbon emissions will or climate change will ever be curtailed barring the discovery of a new emission-less, highly efficient energy source. The effects of anyone who does individually sacrifice will be offset by the plenty who will opt for 1/2 acre or even 1/4 lots and the energy consumption that must follow.

Why is the right answer to increase the population to unsustainable levels, try to make it up with increased density, and then blame the people who want something different? You do realize that densifying will not in fact, fix the problem either, it only buys you some time, at the cost of different resources.

I don’t disagree with your premise but don’t know if it leads to a pragmatic answer outside of population regulation. If we can’t convince people to reduce energy usage I don’t think there’s any legitimate chance of convincing them from making humans from scratch

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#98

Post by anonu »

jschveibinz wrote: post #2

Clickbait title. Article is about the real estate prices in Austin, TX after Tesla announced the move there. Will real estate ever be normal again? I think that what's happening in real estate is perfectly normal from an economics point of view. Mortgage rates are extremely low, more people are moving because of remote work opportunities, and the younger folks wanting to buy homes now outnumber the baby boomers, all…

agree. this is the "new normal". $4tr stimulus which takes years to permeate through the economy + continued low interest rates + population and worker reshuffle post-pandemic which will take many many years to figure out.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#99

Post by boplicity »

There should be a law (in a city, or state, etc) that says housing costs should be a fixed percentage of income -- and outline the measures needed to make that happen, in terms of actual policy requirements. As part of that, if the right policies fail to be enacted, courts should be empowered to enforce them.

In other words, legislatures should require themselves to fix the problem of high housing costs, and if they're not capable, the courts should be empowered to solve the issue by cutting through red tape, issuing fines, etc.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#100

Post by jp57 »

jschveibinz wrote: post #2

Clickbait title. Article is about the real estate prices in Austin, TX after Tesla announced the move there. Will real estate ever be normal again? I think that what's happening in real estate is perfectly normal from an economics point of view. Mortgage rates are extremely low, more people are moving because of remote work opportunities, and the younger folks wanting to buy homes now outnumber the baby boomers, all…

Yeah, this article is describing the situation in Austin the spring. I'm here, my wife is an agent. Prices are higher now than they were, but the multiple-offer insanity has long since abated. I saw this article and couldn't figure out why it was news.
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