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Will real estate ever be normal again?

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Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#71

Post by mercy_dude »

uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

Also if they do 1) just imagine how much interest payment that would mean for US Govt and all the dollar denominated debt. I think a mere rate raise to 5% will cause the US Treasury to have to pay for another military.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#72

Post by mlcrypto »

Once investors figure out that Bitcoin is the superior investment property after you already have a primary residence the excess speculation will get sucked out of real estate. This may be in the 2024 halving cycle. I say Bitcoin is superior because it's more portable, more fungible, no property tax, and the work of managing the properties doesn't scale linearly with the amount you own. Don't need to worry about bad tenants, government regulation preventing rent collection, wear & tear, list goes on.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#73

Post by BeFlatXIII »

uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

What I hope for is someone to create a fiscal black hole. The more money that is spent to delay the bubble busting, the wider the blast radius will be. Once its size is several multiples of the world GDP, that's when the real fun begins.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#74

Post by alexose »

I know this may be sacrilege to some, but: Consider moving to a less desirable place if you can.

I got priced out of my hometown of Seattle. So I moved to a small town in rural Oregon and I couldn't be happier. The combination of spending comparatively little on housing + a tech salary is hard to beat. I have my own shop!

It feels like freedom, even if it comes at the cost of being near my extended family.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#75

Post by aeternum »

uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

As Adam Smith said, the true price of everything is in human labor. Inflation generally raises the cost/price of new labor at the expense of historic labor. Demand for labor is still high, the price will likely continue to increase.

Housing is also not a great comparison metric because it was so perturbed by 2008. New unit starts dropped precipitously and still have not fully recovered: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

We know how to build housing quickly and now it's clear there is demand. If the current trend continues it looks like we will again have a housing surplus within the decade.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#76

Post by tengbretson »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #64
syshum wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" land, trees, and nice quality living." are mutually exclusive, High-Density housing is terrible and I NEVER want to live in a highly dense urban settings. My home in the suburbs with 1/2 acre lots is FAR FAR FAR too dense for me... I want less density than that, but newer subdivisions are dropping to 1/4 or 1/5 acre lots, it is terrible

And this is why I do not think carbon emissions will or climate change will ever be curtailed barring the discovery of a new emission-less, highly efficient energy source. The effects of anyone who does individually sacrifice will be offset by the plenty who will opt for 1/2 acre or even 1/4 lots and the energy consumption that must follow.

Would your mind be changed if I told you that home solar panels, batteries and electric cars are becoming more available, affordable and efficient? Or are dense sardine-can apartments a forgone conclusion in search of their next argument that justifies them?

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#77

Post by lotsofpulp »

hallway_monitor wrote: post #69
lotsofpulp wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is why I do not think carbon emissions will or climate change will ever be curtailed barring the discovery of a new emission-less, highly efficient energy source. The effects of anyone who does individually sacrifice will be offset by the plenty who will opt for 1/2 acre or even 1/4 lots and the energy consumption that must follow.

We can build houses much more efficiently. Build the majority of the house underground and heating and cooling become much less of an issue. We can conserve energy without living in a termite colony.

Energy usage scales with mass and distance. To reduce the energy used, you have to do one or more of the following: develop new technology to require less energy (or more efficiently harness energy without the side effects), reduce the amount of mass being moved (fewer humans and less consumption per human), and the distance the mass is moved (denser living).

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#78

Post by paulryanrogers »

mlcrypto wrote: post #72

Once investors figure out that Bitcoin is the superior investment property after you already have a primary residence the excess speculation will get sucked out of real estate. This may be in the 2024 halving cycle. I say Bitcoin is superior because it's more portable, more fungible, no property tax, and the work of managing the properties doesn't scale linearly with the amount you own. Don't need to worry about bad…

Bitcoin is burning the world to move some numbers around. People need housing. Though I'm not convinced either should be an investment vehicle.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#79

Post by mrfusion »

mercy_dude wrote: post #71
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

Also if they do 1) just imagine how much interest payment that would mean for US Govt and all the dollar denominated debt. I think a mere rate raise to 5% will cause the US Treasury to have to pay for another military.

I’m wracking my brain trying to figure out how we’ll ever raise interest rates again due to this issue. Does anyone know? Any tricks I’m not aware of?

Was there way less gov debt in the early 80s when they massively raised rates?

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#80

Post by lotsofpulp »

tengbretson wrote: post #76
lotsofpulp wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is why I do not think carbon emissions will or climate change will ever be curtailed barring the discovery of a new emission-less, highly efficient energy source. The effects of anyone who does individually sacrifice will be offset by the plenty who will opt for 1/2 acre or even 1/4 lots and the energy consumption that must follow.

Would your mind be changed if I told you that home solar panels, batteries and electric cars are becoming more available, affordable and efficient? Or are dense sardine-can apartments a forgone conclusion in search of their next argument that justifies them?

I have not been convinced that any of that makes a sufficient impact relative to the continued need to transport water, sewage, humans, waste, and natural gas that much further.

The relationships are more than linear too because once individual vehicles are in the mix, the distances the masses above can travel can easily multiply.

On top of all that, the less efficient and higher emission energy sources will still be cheaper around the world, and there are plenty of billion people willing to up their consumption.

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