One thing that’s become clear to me is that looking at any two places at one point in time, comparing that day’s stats, and using that to judge/justify the Covid policies of each on that day, is naive. We may even be in a “Moneyball” situation where we don’t know the most critical stat to measure.
Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
71–80 of 199 posts
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#72There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…
> Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million.
You can compare the number of days of lockdown to deaths per million. You should also compare at what point of time the lockdowns were undertaken. There's plenty of research that shows Non Pharmaceutical Initiatives are very effective in stopping the spread of virus.
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#73Netherlands has just imposed lockdown measures even though they're more than 80% vaccinated, I wonder at what point are we going to call this bluff, and I say this as a vaccinated person (including the booster shot).
Oh but you know? You are vaccinated but not vaccinated enough!
And so on. We are secure but… not enough!
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#74There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
Which again is cherry picking as you're not comparing them to the country over, or two steps away. Many of which had exactly the same death rate per 100,000 and did lock down. And the countries you're comparing them to are much smaller population wise.
And worse still, a lot of the cases in Sweden earlier doors were brought back by holidayers in Spain, a popular Swedish holiday location apparently, which is exactly what happened to the UK too.
Is it a popular Finnish holiday location? Norwegian? Do those countries even have flights to Spain?
Answers I dont know, do you?
There's two sides to every story. Instead you might ask why don't they have a higher death rate than the UK or France or Italy, all of whom locked down.
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#75There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
Sweden is more comparable to Germany in population structure. Especially Norway and Finland are completely different. Have a look here (tone is satirical) for a comparison of Sweden's and Germany's graphs: https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2021/11/12/wear-a-mask-and... Germany's numbers are exploding right now. In the U.S. you could also compare New York and Vermont. New York was more like Sweden (not by choice, but…
The graph is unusable considering the context of the different countries. You simply can not compare the two considering how little attention Sweden actually pays to Covid in general and how little testing facilities there actually are in comparison to Germany.
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#76There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
Spain (where the Constitutional Court has deemed the strict lockdown unconstitutional): 1830…
Just another data point.
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
UK is a bad example to choose. They used the highest possible sensitivity setting on the PCR test, to the degree that no meaningful information could be extracted from them. In addition, anyone who died, for any reason, at any time after a positive test, was recorded as a covid death. Even if they died in a car accident months after they had the test. Sources: Covid-19: The problems with case counting: "What is a cas…
"A source said" isn't the same as data. People are saying a thousand accusatory things. Let's quit spreading the gossip.
The source was correct and corroborated by the other two sources I gave, The British Medical Journal and the UK Government.
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#78There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
I'm just completely astonished by the level of incompetence. I really can't imagine how human powered moon landing occurred and if it can occur under current leadership again. I don't really understand what happened in the last year? We got the vaccines at the beginning but why no new vaccines? Why no lifelong protection vaccines? Where are all of the incentives to accelerate the r&d of new ways to handle this? I mea…
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Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
We don't even know why covid has a seasonality. Obviously it has a physical cause but the interplay of all factors is so complicated that no one can really explain why peaks come and go, and at different times in each place.
Best guess I've seen on hit this has to do with how much time people are spending inside due to weather. See the screenshot of covid positivity rates at two different dates. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456... The screenshot is from the NYTimes covid tracker. The guess was that more people were inside in the south the summer when it was hot, and they were running air conditioning. Now that…
Not only that (rate of interaction spent outdoors), also an effect of UV was observed. Not massive but significant.
I cannot find the original material that informed me, but I see there was a research effort last year, described at
https://bren.ucsb.edu/news/seasonal-uv-light-exposure-affect...
> The authors then used a dataset of meteorological conditions with daily resolution ... analyz[ing] how four variables — UV radiation, temperature, humidity and precipitation — correlated with the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases ... [and] found evidence that a location’s UV exposure significantly affects COVID-19 transmission. A change in UV exposure by 1 standard deviation (roughly equal to the difference in UV between May and June in Los Angeles) reduced the growth rate of new cases by around 1 percentage point over the following two weeks
and a more recent one, described at
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/scientists-uncover-the-s...
> The seasonal values of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and ADC, however, were consistent with fluctuations in COVID-19 prevalence across all five countries
Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy
#80There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…
I'm just completely astonished by the level of incompetence. I really can't imagine how human powered moon landing occurred and if it can occur under current leadership again. I don't really understand what happened in the last year? We got the vaccines at the beginning but why no new vaccines? Why no lifelong protection vaccines? Where are all of the incentives to accelerate the r&d of new ways to handle this? I mea…
Competent people are not working for the government. They choose private sector where they can earn a lot more.
Start paying handsomely and maybe competent people will become interested.
On top of earnings, there is also the issue of unreasonable demand. Did you know for example that some government agencies can not use productive software because of stupid policies imposed by incompetent regulating bodies?