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Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

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Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#21

Post by bcalp »

pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

Sweden is more comparable to Germany in population structure. Especially Norway and Finland are completely different.

Have a look here (tone is satirical) for a comparison of Sweden's and Germany's graphs:

https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2021/11/12/wear-a-mask-and...

Germany's numbers are exploding right now. In the U.S. you could also compare New York and Vermont. New York was more like Sweden (not by choice, but through incompetence and extreme population density). Vermont had the officially recommended policies and was a poster child.

Now the Vermont numbers are exploding, while New York's are not.

There is something to be said for the theory that the highly connected nodes in the social graph (who are often very healthy) all need to be infected in a short period. Then the outbreaks stop (like they have always done with the flu).

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#22

Post by api »

vladharbuz wrote: post #12
pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…

Age of population is a huge factor that must be included but I seldom see it mentioned.

Another one we don’t even understand at all yet is genetic makeup of the population. We know that with other diseases there are genetic markers that increase of decrease susceptibility. There probably are here too but we don’t know what they are. Differences in distribution of those markers could totally confound studies.

The best comparisons right now are going to be within more genetically and demographically similar populations.

Here in Ohio we have seen that the vaccine is over 90% effective at preventing severe COVID and death but far less effective at simply stopping transmission. (Ohio has used the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna one almost exclusively.) But we already know it does not sterilize.

Not sure about masks and lockdowns. Have to look that up. There are even more confounders there like what masks are being used (N95 vs KN95 vs thin cloth junk) and uneven compliance that nobody is able to track.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#23

Post by jimmaswell »

paganel wrote: post #17

Netherlands has just imposed lockdown measures even though they're more than 80% vaccinated, I wonder at what point are we going to call this bluff, and I say this as a vaccinated person (including the booster shot).

It's such a political thing that many people are going to support government measures and wear masks at family gatherings for the rest of their lives. I wouldn't be surprised if some things like masks at the post office last forever at this point regardless of necessity.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#24

Post by NoPie »

vladharbuz wrote: post #12
pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…

We don't even know why covid has a seasonality. Obviously it has a physical cause but the interplay of all factors is so complicated that no one can really explain why peaks come and go, and at different times in each place.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#25

Post by chli »

vladharbuz wrote: post #12
pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…

I hope you're kidding with respect to Switzerland's handling of covid...

We have the worst vaccine coverage of western Europe.

The government didn't take the necessary measures in September/October last year which lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Most schools have no mitigation in place, no CO2 meter, no filtering, no mask, no testing.

The largest political party (SVP/UDC) has systematically downplayed the pandemic.

Etc.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#26

Post by toxik »

alltakendamned wrote: post #6

The bureaucrats that have been responsible for the questionable approach Sweden has followed are currently fighting like a cornered cat to avoid any and all accountability. So this 'message' fits the narrative well. The prime minister has stepped down and left the reigns to someone else this week. The responsible for the health authorities has started his pension a week or two ago. Both conveniently around the same t…

Your entire argument falls over flat if you look at excess mortality. Aggregate statistics are hard to misunderstand. Sweden did worse at first, but is in general unremarkable.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#27

Post by crisdux »

mrroboto0101 wrote: post #10
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #5

Halting an economy to the point of economic depression levels (early on) for the sake of people who were already vulnerable (look at the US, lockdowns but people still left the house cause duh...groceries and jobs) was a dumb idea. The government was trying to play god with it's citizens and they couldn't even police simple things like "stay at home" orders. So what was the point in even shutting down everything and…

The Government is playing god in protecting it citizens from death? Not sure if I understand this reasoning, the government has to protect its citizens, that is the number one task.

It depends on how expansive we take the whole "government as protector" role. It is a perfectly reasonable position to believe our government overstepped their responsibility if you take a more narrow view of this idea. In the last 2-3 decades in the US we've seen a consistent erosion of our civil liberties, because people want more "protection" from an ever increasing list of harms.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#28

Post by NikolaNovak »

foxhop wrote: post #11
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #5

Halting an economy to the point of economic depression levels (early on) for the sake of people who were already vulnerable (look at the US, lockdowns but people still left the house cause duh...groceries and jobs) was a dumb idea. The government was trying to play god with it's citizens and they couldn't even police simple things like "stay at home" orders. So what was the point in even shutting down everything and…

To destroy US, they want to create a one government rule.

Oh boy. I'll bite. Who is they? What is the one government rule?

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#29

Post by amelius »

vladharbuz wrote: post #12
pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…

The problem is that it's not black/white. Close all roads to normal traffic and you'll have near-zero mortality from traffic accidents. But does that make it a smart policy?

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#30

Post by MeinBlutIstBlau »

mrroboto0101 wrote: post #10
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #5

Halting an economy to the point of economic depression levels (early on) for the sake of people who were already vulnerable (look at the US, lockdowns but people still left the house cause duh...groceries and jobs) was a dumb idea. The government was trying to play god with it's citizens and they couldn't even police simple things like "stay at home" orders. So what was the point in even shutting down everything and…

The Government is playing god in protecting it citizens from death? Not sure if I understand this reasoning, the government has to protect its citizens, that is the number one task.

So if the government did such a bad job policing people from staying at home, why did we even bother with continuing with the stay at home orders? It was obvious from the end of 2020 that nobody was abiding by it and police clearly weren't enforcing these completely unconstitutional laws.

Yet here we are with the same death toll we would've had, but this time with almost 2x inflation, ridiculous shortages, and supply chain failures all around.

But hey, at least we saved a few old or obese people already knocking on deaths door...

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