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Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

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Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#151
post #58
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When antinuclear activists constitute 90% of the population, the other people start to be called differently :( . Despite attempts on HN to help me, I still don't see a good way to deal with nuclear waste, which would be well explained.

It's all well explained - at this point you don't want to understand the solution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_geological_repository I've cited this quote before: " Despite a long-standing agreement among many experts that geological disposal can be safe, technologically feasible and environmentally sound, a large part of the general public in many countries remains skeptical as result of anti-nuclear campaign…

A good explanation is something different than repeating that experts agree on a particular page on the Internet. For question this controversial, I'd prefer to see a list of arguments for and contra, with best points from either side, which would cover all reasonable arguments and some unreasonable ones, with the decision left to the reader - otherwise expert opinion may seem not enough grounded. For me, I believe I have enough basic knowledge to decide, I just don't see a good analysis anywhere. I've talked with an expert too, a friend - and while he's for nuclear power, some questions he couldn't answer well. So, Wikipedia page doesn't seem enough - and I don't think I don't want to understand the solution.

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#152
I think there is a huge gap in the market for production of nuclear energy plants, both (very)large scale and small.

I haven't seen any superplants which break from the usual evaporation tower scale. I also haven't seen something I'd dip behind a dam which would evaporate it's lake, and yield the depth-energy somehow (perhaps more efficiently than a regular old dam's drop-pipe construction). There should be some special space-age-scale plants too. It's not like I'd know who'd buy one, but submarine/boat powerplants are legal if they stay in open waters, and scale pretty large. There's a certain terratory for nuclear train, certainly. All presently best in class designs for those have contamination and bulk issues (and not even either!). But it'd also not know who sells those! So it's still a hole in the market, either way. And with space, there's an interest in building spaceborne nuclear power plants, which now is likely to become commercial enterprise, but was not recently a purely governmental affair. So that can be very lucrative, yet safe.

The 'aftermarket' for these products, which includes armed assurance of retrieving 'misplaced' fuel, and a suitable construction for assuring the safekeeping of said materials over their dangerous lifespan, with/without the fiscal instruments for these materials to be kept retrievable ('depleted' is relative). Is, well, basically just more market really. But it's important to capture this market very aggressively, or the materials will not be treated appropriately and the cost may be left uncarried.

It may end up being incredibly unsustainable, with mineables lasting 60-80 years with reasonable (curved up) adoption, which is definitely on the short side. Space mining may yield tremendous amounts, and will more likely laser it moon/earthbound rather than shipping the uranium (but we'll see! It's 'down' in the gravitational spirals, so it may even yield energy on the way down hah). Water sourced uranium mining is something to be proven before we'll know what kind of 'solution' we're facing, but the idea of finding lots of uranium anywhere is nice. I'm positive we're not actually done prospecting the earth, just that the mines we do have are thusly rich we're not looking further!

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Longer half-life = less radioactive. By definition.

radioactivity isn't the only problematic property of plutonium.

But it's the one you mentioned.

You're just trying to move the goal posts now.

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#154
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you build a fully nuclear grid without storage? Seems a really weird thing for nuclear enthusiasts to mention. It's like you're just passing on fossil fuel talking points without even reflecting on whether they make sense for nuclear.

You don't need large amounts of storage for nuclear-based power grid, only enough to provide frequency maintenance buffer while you change power output on the plant. You need huge storage amounts for renewables just to make sure you don't have rolling blackouts (undersupply vs. nuclear's oversupply) or, what happens in reality, fossil fuel backup. There is an equivalent of small village with fully renewable power gri…

Even coal or nuclear heavy grids have traditionally needed gas or pumped hydro to meet peaky demand. France got to like 75% of their electricity nuclear, with 10% hydro, but only 20% of heating electrified, giving about 2/5ths of total energy (though that's misleading as about half of fossil fuels is wasted as heat, so lets say they got over 50%), I don't think we can just handwave the other half away.

So, clearly you're not going to use gas, because you don't sound at all pleased by renewebles relying on "fossil fuel backup" to fill in the gaps, so what's left?

Are you thinking about Pink Hydrogen? i mean that's a good plan but it's also basically storage, the same as green Hydrogen would be, no?

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Untrue https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-hopes-play-leading-role-2203... 2) Not in any way that is irreducible. 3) wrong. https://www.machinedesign.com/materials/article/21836993/ura... “Oh, that’s just proof of concept.” Yes, and even 5 grams is enough to disprove your claim it doesn’t exist. Reality is we won’t need it for an extremely long time, so why would anyone do more than proof of concept? 4) still on-net e…

I have followed the nuclear for more than 3 decades and invested in junior E&P for more than a decade. Everyone, understandably, hopes for something to drop in and save us from the situation we're in with the climate and energy intensity. Nuclear will be a part of it, but everything I said in my post was true like it or not. Plans for a thorium reactor do not amount to a commercial thorium reactor. Also, 5 grams is u…

Yeah but reserves != resources so your problem isn't a real one.

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#156

To be sustainable, nuclear also needs to be sustainable economically. There's a cost problem with nuclear that often gets swept under the carpet by its proponents. But it's actually a big reason for its current lack of popularity. Nuclear proponents instead love to emphasize how safe nuclear can be and how great of a safety track record it has. And with some caveats (e.g. the Fukushima mess was pretty bad) they are n…

Nuclear is cost competitive with fossil fuels, if you include carbon externalities. Still more expensive than renewables though, so only the best option if they didn't exist.

Yeah, fossil fuel is also economically sustainable at this point. Even without carbon capture it is generally too expensive.

However. but the best power is the power you have. While renewables are cheaper, we don't yet have enough renewable capacity. And while fixing that is happening at an enormous pace, it's going to take a bit of time. A few decades should help.

E.g. China has more than a TW of coal plants and more under construction. The global rollout of renewables is in the order of a bit over 100 GW. At that pace, it would take a decade to roll out enough (globally) just to get rid of China's coal plants.

That's why they are investing in expensive Nuclear plants. 150 plants adds up to about a TW pretty much. Assuming these are pretty big ones doing 6GW each. That's not because they are so cheap but because it is the only way to get China on a path where they can shut down most of their coal this half of the century. Doing that is becoming more urgent.

Long term, they might shut down those nuclear plants as soon as they can get away with it to save money. That will require a massive increase in production for renewable generation and storage. These plants have a lifetime of around 60 years. They might not actually be online that long.

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#157

"However, billion-year sustainability does require advances in seawater uranium extraction..." This seems like a HUGE understatement. The calculations for the billion-year sustainability basically assume we have extracted every single bit of uranium from seawater. We have demonstrated extracting uranium from seawater [0] using plastic fibers with a compound that attracts the uranium+oxygen ions. But this would basica…

Anyway, mankind doesn't have 5Gy. In a mere 500My the sun`s output should make the planet uninhabitable. Even so, it's enough time for us to have two more pangeas.

Though in a century we should have people living on Mars, so a while before the 500My is up. Or a sunshade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade. Or just raise Earth's orbit a bit by slingshotting an asteroid between Earth and Jupiter.

>'All you have to do is strap a chemical rocket to an asteroid or comet and fire it at just the right time,' added Laughlin. 'It is basic rocket science.' https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/10/globalwa...

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is cost competitive with fossil fuels, if you include carbon externalities. Still more expensive than renewables though, so only the best option if they didn't exist.

Yeah, fossil fuel is also economically sustainable at this point. Even without carbon capture it is generally too expensive. However. but the best power is the power you have. While renewables are cheaper, we don't yet have enough renewable capacity. And while fixing that is happening at an enormous pace, it's going to take a bit of time. A few decades should help. E.g. China has more than a TW of coal plants and mor…

> That will require a massive increase in production for renewable generation and storage.

I have good news:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.RNWX.KH

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#159
post #21

In Europe everyone knows that. Even the craziest of our "greens" who insist on complete domestic decommissioning know it. The reason a few European countries are shutting their nuclear power plants down isn't because they think they are unsustainable, but because they fear they may be targeted and attacked. They currently view them as the combination of a sitting duck and a powder keg.

Plus, you know, storing the waste for thousands of years without a good place to do so. Payed for by the public.

They could have looked at the fossil fuel industry and released the waste into the air. Spread it out over a large enough area and people don't seem to mind as much, and living near such plant would possible be safer than living near a coal plant. The problem is that they stockpiled it, having the public pay the storage cost with taxes rather than with their health.

Re: Nuclear energy is long-term sustainable

#160
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have followed the nuclear for more than 3 decades and invested in junior E&P for more than a decade. Everyone, understandably, hopes for something to drop in and save us from the situation we're in with the climate and energy intensity. Nuclear will be a part of it, but everything I said in my post was true like it or not. Plans for a thorium reactor do not amount to a commercial thorium reactor. Also, 5 grams is u…

Yeah but reserves != resources so your problem isn't a real one.

1P, 2P, and 3P reserve categories are something I'm quite familiar with and I have broadly invested in a long term increase in UO2 prices. Uranium is a fascinating basic material, and there are several ways to extract it. You have higher grade ore deposits that are directly mined. There are in situ leaching techniques, also. Increases in prices will make new techniques economically viable and 2P+ reserves will be reclassified to 1P.

"My problem" is that there is a physical cap on this with fuel extraction: EROI. A trillion dollars a pound for ore will not matter if it takes more energy to recovery a resource than it takes to produce it. The seawater recovery part of this story is dubious at best at the recovery factors used in their calculations.

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