Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#91

Post by agumonkey » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:26 PM UTC

1986 wrote: post #44

nostrebored wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that people in the U.S. so often only see homelessness through the lens of where they live. Homelessness is a unique problem in each city. For example, the west coast has favorable weather and a history of being a destination for people after they are released from prisons or mental facilities. In cities on the east coast there is more leftist-narrative style homelessness: people who were depending on…

> an oversupply of homeless shelters that people refuse to use (due to restrictions on substance abuse etc.) There's a lot hiding in that "etc". Some other reasons people refuse to use (some) shelters: - shelter is / feels unsafe due to a subset of the sheltered population - shelter has a curfew that does not allow you to maintain your work schedule - shelter won't let you bring your child or pet or stuff

I've seen this first hand and its difficult to comprehend. Some people would rather sleep in dead cold winter than to be in shelters. That's worth investigating...

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#92

Post by Iefthandrule » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:26 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #32

paxys wrote: post #22

> There are some exceptions. For one thing, despite being close to California, Nevada and some of the Montana-esque states saw big decreases in certain categories. Someone people would look at this and go wow, Nevada and the rest did a great job providing shelters and help to their homeless. I think a more realistic answer is that they just shipped them to California.

The data doesn't really seem to support this, and my personal experience doesn't either. Most homeless people in my Californian town were living nearby when they became homeless. And though I didn't go to high school here, friends who did recognize people they grew up among the homeless. There's a far bigger difference between California and its neighbors: housing costs and availability of housing even for those with…

How long were they in California before they became homeless? If they were living in a center for transients or were on a couch for a year before being homeless (but were relatively destitute in Nevada prior to this), then the data absolutely supports it.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#93

Post by tgbugs » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:27 PM UTC

One piece of analysis I'd be interested to see is whether the transition probabilities among the 4 categories along with the implied 5th category of "not homeless" have changed.

This is harder to get good data for because it would require tracking individuals across time. The payoff is that it would likely reveal evidence of structural changes if such changes exist.

At the population level it is hard to tell whether and where changes are happening. Getting the transition probabilities would allow for more effective targeting of interventions (though most of the folks who work on this already know which transitions are the hardest to recover from).

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#94

Post by paxys » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:27 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #32

paxys wrote: post #22

> There are some exceptions. For one thing, despite being close to California, Nevada and some of the Montana-esque states saw big decreases in certain categories. Someone people would look at this and go wow, Nevada and the rest did a great job providing shelters and help to their homeless. I think a more realistic answer is that they just shipped them to California.

The data doesn't really seem to support this, and my personal experience doesn't either. Most homeless people in my Californian town were living nearby when they became homeless. And though I didn't go to high school here, friends who did recognize people they grew up among the homeless. There's a far bigger difference between California and its neighbors: housing costs and availability of housing even for those with…

There is never going to be official data on this by design, but there is evidence of it happening all over the country, and "friendly" places like California being on the receiving end of it (https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvg7ba/instead-of-helping-ho...).

Statistical anomalies are a proven way of identifying cheating in a wide variety of scenarios like elections, standardized tests and sports. It isn't conclusive evidence, sure, but still a good place to start looking.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#95

Post by Iefthandrule » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:27 PM UTC

FPGAhacker wrote: post #52

MomoXenosaga wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homeless people aren't stupid. They go where they can live. Nobody wants to winter in North Dakota lol. More money in panhandling too I bet.

I thought that too about the weather but what about New York?

Plenty of homeless resources in New York.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#96

Post by antognini » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:27 PM UTC

The huge decrease in homelessness in North Dakota is probably due to the end of the fracking boom. The map compares the homelessness rate from 2015 to 2020, and 2015 was just a few years after the height of the boom. During the early 2010s rents in North Dakota shot up enormously as tens of thousands of workers poured into the state to support the industry. There wasn't enough existing housing to support the newcomers so there was a lot of crowding into trailers etc. and it's no surprise that a lot of people ended up homeless.

Fracking has leveled off for the past few years and many of the workers have moved back to other oil fields so homelessness has decreased dramatically.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#97

Post by chii » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:33 PM UTC

AlexandrB wrote: post #47

jseliger wrote: post #6

There is mostly a housing crisis, with homelessness downstream of housing. I originally left this comment a few months ago, but: CA especially has been underbuilding housing for close to 50 years ( https://techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/sf-housing/ ) and now has a severe housing shortage, to the point where a parodic response, like "California will try absolutely anything to reduce homelessness, except build more housing"…

I don't buy it. In Toronto, there are new condo buildings going up seemingly on every block, but there are still 10,000 homeless[1]. The inconvenient truth is that building low-income housing is not very profitable and no entity driven by the profit motive wants to do it. The margins on luxury condos are much better. [1] https://www.fredvictor.org/facts-about-homelessness-in-toron...

But the increased supply of the top would put pressure on the lower end as well. It's not isolated.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#98

Post by chii » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:37 PM UTC

stillbourne wrote: post #42

I live in Denver, like any other metropolitan area there has always been a homeless population. What has been different is since 2016 there has been a staggering growth in the number of tents and so called tent cities. This isn't a problem just downtown either even if it is most visible there. The issue has expanded outside downtown and is filling in vacant properties in suburbia as well. Places like Aurora, almost e…

> I'm making good money and barley able to pay rent.

How can this be both true? If you can barely make rent, it must be that you're not making good money. Surely good money means you have excess after paying all necessities.

If you mistakenly believe you're making good money, but is in actual fact struggling, you must start looking for a higher paying job, lest you end up homeless due to a sudden economic shock or accident causing you to lose your income.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#99

Post by Gigachad » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:40 PM UTC

1986 wrote: post #44

nostrebored wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that people in the U.S. so often only see homelessness through the lens of where they live. Homelessness is a unique problem in each city. For example, the west coast has favorable weather and a history of being a destination for people after they are released from prisons or mental facilities. In cities on the east coast there is more leftist-narrative style homelessness: people who were depending on…

> an oversupply of homeless shelters that people refuse to use (due to restrictions on substance abuse etc.) There's a lot hiding in that "etc". Some other reasons people refuse to use (some) shelters: - shelter is / feels unsafe due to a subset of the sheltered population - shelter has a curfew that does not allow you to maintain your work schedule - shelter won't let you bring your child or pet or stuff

The shelters _are_ unsafe and I wouldn't blame the average person for choosing a tucked away park over a hive of mentally ill and violent people. The solution is difficult though. I'm thinking we need some way to provide secure shelter. Something like those pod hotels where you get a private, lockable pod so you don't have your phone stolen or get raped in the middle of the night.

Re: Breakdown of data on homeless populations across the U.S.

#100

Post by zz865 » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 10:41 PM UTC

cheriot wrote: post #9

We're a country of 350,000,000 people. Leaving 500,000 outside simply because municipalities don't want them around is inexcusable. Solution in two parts 1. Make it legal to build homes where people live (looking at you California, specifically LA, SF, SV) 2. Build dorm style shelters for anyone that would otherwise sleep outside There's complicating issues like not enough addiction treatment and mental health facili…

> Make it legal to build homes where people live (looking at you California, specifically LA, SF, SV)

Sorry this is BS. Better solution is move people to where the homes are. Lots of cheap empty houses in America, just not on California beaches. Yeah I'd rather live in a tent on Venice beach than a run down house in Ohio too, but homeless dont have a right to live anywhere.