Used car market gets even more bizarre • Hacker News Board

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#231

Post by eru » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:39 AM UTC

kevstev wrote: post #74

Y_Y wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you honestly "charge off" a debt as unlikely to be repaid, when you are quite likely to be repaid? It seems that in the case of a car loan you can usually reposses the collateral, which recently will have held value oreven appreciated in the interim.

Historically, car values underwent significant depreciation over time and loans that went delinquent were for vehicles that were "underwater"- their value was less than the loan. Its pretty much unprecedented for the value of a vehicle to actually increase at any point in time over its life, and how long this anomaly will go on for is very uncertain- another way to put it is that you don't change all of your process…

> [...] you don't change all of your process and accounting norms because of a temporary (at least as we think for now) supply issue.

Yes. And for the appreciation to persist, the supply chain issue wouldn't just have to persist, but get worse.

Current prices reflect expected supply chain issues. That's both prices for new and used cars.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#232

Post by noduerme » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:39 AM UTC

hyperman1 wrote: post #189

zizee wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does wrestle a lot of control from the individual though. It's not hard to imagine possible abuses of power. Tracking everyone's movements is just the start. What if some government decided to deny service to someone? Or not let certain groups travel to certain places. Imagine opportunities for havoc due to hacking I'd still like driverless cars, but privacy and freedom of movement rights protections need to be th…

There are 2 separate aspects here: Driverless, and governement controlled. A driverless car might be a car like today's, except with a computer on board. Governement doesn't connect with your car at an individual level, even if they might adapt the road code a bit to make it more easy on the cars. The problems you mention are real, but a driverless car doesn't change much. Havoc due to hacking is already possible tod…

>> Havoc due to hacking is already possible today

But it's still legal to buy and drive a car from the 80s that can't be hacked.

Looking ahead, my concern is that we'll begin to see laws that restrict human controlled vehicles from autonomous lanes and eventually whole roads. This would take a lot of burden off the manufacturers. If cars can use a common protocol to communicate across brands, you don't even need traffic lights or turn signals; you don't even need to stop at intersections. Cars can just slow down or speed up by a tiny bit in coordination with other traffic. At that point it will be impossible for a human to drive at all.

It's impossible to separate increasing vehicle autonomy from increased government control. Once there's an ability to make any car pull over to the side remotely, knowing who is in it and where it's going, all freedom of movement and therefore all human autonomy exists completely at the whim of government. That level of control will be abused sooner rather than later, if not in America then certainly in authoritarian states.

Full self driving is an authoritarian trap.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#233

Post by tnel77 » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:41 AM UTC

I know this is anecdotal, but I ran a Carvana offer today just to see what they’d give me for my one year old Subaru Forester. Their offer is $2,000 higher than my payoff quote from the bank. I haven’t tried shopping around to see how that offer compares to Carmax or a dealership. I still need this vehicle, but it’s crazy nonetheless.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#234

Post by eru » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:42 AM UTC

RC_ITR wrote: post #176

The real problem will be when supply normalizes, used cars return to their sub-20k wholesale price, and a bunch of people are underwater on bad loans for (once again) depreciating assets. Have fun with that everyone!

Presumably, people know about this possibility, and it's reflected in prices already?

For many people a car is a productive asset. As in, they need it to do their jobs. Even if it's just to commute to work.

So 'overpaying' for a car now might still be the right thing to do, even if you know full well that it's gonna lose a lot of value in a year or less.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#235

Post by eru » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:45 AM UTC

sbierwagen wrote: post #211

gigel82 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPUs are bad, CPUs are getting better, but the rest (except for RAM during mid-2020) are in plenty supply... I'm also looking for a SSD and there's quite a few options going on special (well below MSRP) these days. I'm waiting for Black Friday to pull the trigger, but maybe I shouldn't if things continue going this route. FWIW, I just extended the lease on my Leaf for the 2nd 6-month term because there is simply no n…

With current market conditions, why would a retailer have a Black Friday event? Print advertising flyers that say "come look at our empty shelves"?

It's customary to have those events.

You'd have to look at the actual discounts they give: if they are small enough, they might just be equivalent to those flyers you mentioned.

(Though in a well functioning market, we shouldn't see empty shelves. We should just see higher prices. And if you raise prices enough, you can just drop them a bit for a promotion.)

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#236

Post by OnlineGladiator » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:47 AM UTC

noduerme wrote: post #221

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPS is a one-way communication. It's really no different from radio in that regard (a signal sent from far away and you have an antenna to read the signal). Unless there's also a cellular modem in your car (which pretty much every modern car has today so I'm not pretending this is unusual) it's impossible for others to monitor your location. You can simply disable the cellular modem and enjoy using GPS without anyone…

I understand this. To be clear, I'm willing to use GPS. I'm willing to carry a cellphone. I'm even willing to use those things in conjunction when I choose to put a battery in and turn mobile data on and location on. If there were a car with a built-in GPS that didn't have cellular reception, I would get it. (I used to use a TomTom). But I won't buy a car where those things are integrated and can't be turned off. Sev…

I'm saying it's really easy to just kill the cellular modem in pretty much any car. Just short it with solder if you want to. Now you can enjoy almost any car with none of the privacy concerns.

If you prefer older cars that's fine, but there's an easy workaround if the issue really is whether or not there's a cellular modem. I've done this before on multiple vehicles and it won't void the warranty for anything other than parts you want to disable already.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#237

Post by jes » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:49 AM UTC

csteubs wrote: post #171

sokoloff wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jumping from only light maintenance to changing a rear main seal is quite the leap!

No better feeling though! Especially when running the numbers post-fix (insert CS joke here) and comparing to shop quotes. I keep spreadsheets for two cars and an older jet ski and I've saved ~$12k this year alone by wrenching solo assuming $100/hr = standard labor rate. I've learned a TON of cross-functional skills, have full control over the parts and repair, and it's just a feel-good way to step away from my desk…

Can confirm. I did brakes and rotors on all four wheels on my 4WD 2012 Tundra a while back. Went smoothly and I knew that all bolts were properly torqued when I was done.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#238

Post by quintushoratius » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:49 AM UTC

eru wrote: post #214

clavalle wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was in the same boat. I usually avoid buying new but used cars are nearly the same price as new (if you can find a dealer that hasn't done ridiculous 'market adjustments'). So we bought new. We had to buy a car that was just off the delivery truck before the dealership had it inspected. The one we'd looked at two days before was long gone and they expected the one we bought to be sold the next day. My neighbor trad…

> I usually avoid buying new but used cars are nearly the same price as new (if you can find a dealer that hasn't done ridiculous 'market adjustments'). It seems like the dealers who didn't make these 'adjustments' are leaving money on the table? > Mechanics are about to make a killing. Well, we often hear exhortations to reduce-reuse-recycle. Here, the market is sending a price signal exactly along these lines, and…

>> I usually avoid buying new but used cars are nearly the same price as new (if you can find a dealer that hasn't done ridiculous 'market adjustments').

>It seems like the dealers who didn't make these 'adjustments' are leaving money on the table?

I believe their behavior is somewhat constrained by the manufacturers, who have slightly different sales goals in mind. They take a longer view, where new car sales are more than a sale, it represents a chance to upgrade the customer in a couple of years.

Dealerships, on the other hand, often take a very short-sighted view of customers.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#239

Post by quintushoratius » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:55 AM UTC

eru wrote: post #215

Wistar wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend owns a high line/niche used car dealership and his service shop, who has a legendary mechanic, has not increased rates at all but just got more selective about the service work they are doing. Also, effectively no new service customers as they are booked solid for months.

So basically they are taking their increased compensation not in the form of more money from customers, but by improving their working conditions. It's very interesting, because this situation mirrors what economists predict about minimum wages: Employees take their compensation as a mixed basket of wages and non-monetary perks (like nicer working conditions or opportunities for learning and advancement). Different p…

> So orthodox economics predicts that increases in minimum wage leads, amongst other things, to deteriorating working conditions.

I've never heard that take before, but it's a fascinating idea.

Unfortunately, I think the problem we've run into in the U.S. is that minimum wage jobs have already hit rock bottom working conditions. Raising the minimum wage is the only thing left to improve conditions for those stuck in them.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#240

Post by RNCTX » Thu, Nov 11, 2021, 1:56 AM UTC

hyperman1 wrote: post #136

noduerme wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still won't even buy a car with GPS. Seems I'm in a vanishing minority. It won't pass, because people born after 1990 have spent their adult lives in a world with surveillance machines in their pockets at all times. Their cars are just big phones. By 2040 you probably won't even be allowed to drive your own vehicle.

To be honest, not being allowed to drive your own vehicle is probably a good thing. See e.g. https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index... . From the first few paragraphs: Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States for people aged 1–54 More than half of those killed are pedestrians, motorcyclists, or cyclists. Drivers risk other people's lives, hence, other people have a…

You're never going to see Elon Musk assume liability for one of his exploding deathtraps. It will always come with the disclaimer that you're responsible for driving it.

Autopiloted cars are just investor marketing.