US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#271

Post by littlestymaar » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 9:27 PM UTC

ignasheahy wrote: post #195

dlp211 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. lol? whut? Stop talking about government debt, it's a stupid talking point used to beat people over the head with who want to govern by misleading voters into believing that government debt is the same as household debt. Also, what weak economy? Economic gr…

>Also, what weak economy? Economic growth is up, wages are up, unemployment is down, personal debt is down. That usually happens in the beginning stages of high inflation scenario. Also government debt is not the same as household debt, however it still matters especially at these high levels. There is a breaking point just no one knows where it is. 300% gdp? 500%? 700%. At some point it will break down.

What would break mean? The US debt, like all debt, is somebody else's asset. This “somebody” has zero interest in collapsing the system.

The only two things that can actually make the system collapse in the next 30 years are:

- a communist revolution in the US (this is not happening anytime soon, do not worry).

- zealots with a debt fixation, who would rather collapse the entire economy because they think debt is immoral. This one is a little bit more likely, but given the strong ties between the financial sector and the political parties in the US, I really doubt these people would ever be in charge. Republican, when they don't control the White house, are prone to rant about how debt is unsustainable and should be reduced at all cost, but whenever there is a Republican president, the debt keeps rising.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#272

Post by wayoutthere » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #255

wbsss4412 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end of the day, the petrodollar is a geopolitical arrangement, it’s end and subsequent replacement will be drafted to reflect whatever the new geopolitical order comes to be.

Which will remain the United States as the sole superpower. China does not have a blue-water navy and won't for another decade+, which means they cannot regulate oil shipping routes worldwide like the USN. Russia can't project naval power outside their region. The entire EU collectively doesn't have close to the naval power that the US does, and does not have the resources to keep routes open. The petrodollar is The…

All of which only really matters to those of us on this side of the ocean. China doesn’t need to project naval power, they project economic and political power due to being physically closer and a large exporter. Belt and road is their method for controlling the transport of goods. They can get oil/gas from Russia and the Middle East over land via trucks and pipelines.

Which is why I think the next 10 years will display how little control the US military is able to exert. 20 years of pointless war have ground the US military into dusty incompetence. Do we want to protect Taiwan or our access to the Persian Gulf? We may only be able to keep one of them.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#273

Post by alphabettsy » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 9:42 PM UTC

tdfx wrote: post #232

wayoutthere wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change, and how brittle the JIT-optimized global logistics system we built over the last 50 years is. We can and will need to adjust to a more flexible system to deal with the increased disruption from climate change, but that system will be more expensive and less efficient. Couple this with the fact that we’re going to eventually have food shortages at least locally in the short-to-medium term, which will d…

Can you elaborate on how you feel climate change has recently affected this issue? It seems more likely to me that the recent pandemic is the major issue. > This long-term famine is already happening in Central America and is driving more and more migrants north every year. This is certainly a problem but not nearly a major reason that migrants are coming north. They're coming north because they can make their monthl…

> evidenced by the fact that almost none of them are accepting offers of asylum in Mexico and choosing to continue to the US

How is this evidence? If Mexico isn’t my home either and I already have to start my life over why wouldn’t I keep going to a place with even more opportunity?

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#274

Post by m0llusk » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 9:47 PM UTC

podgaj wrote: post #164

m0llusk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not a lot of information, though. Processed food has been harder hit than real food and areas that are entirely dependent on trucking because of a lack of ports or rail also have seen much greater impacts.

Poor people, which is a large majority of the United States, can only afford processed food. You neoliberals in your whole foods crap make me nauseous.

As a housecleaner I live in the SF Bay Area on between $15-20k/year. The cost of my dietary staples which are primarily vegetables, leafy greens, dairy products, and eggs has hardly budged.

Anyone who has access to a kitchen can with practice use minimal time and effort produce meals that are competitive with processed options from frozen foods, grocery store chickens, and of course fast food joints. Though cuts of meat have gone way up in price, whole chickens are still reasonably priced for those who can process a bird which is not really that hard.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#275

Post by rsj_hn » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

Supermancho wrote: post #263

rsj_hn wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hell, as a yearly income, that's poor much less a networth. Not really, because this is primarily young people who are building savings. By retirement age, the savings are much higher even for the median household. Even in the 45-54 cohort, the median networth is 168K. By the time you reach 55-64, median HH income is $213K. Post-retirement, 65-74, median network is $266K. Then it starts to decline as people spend d…

> And an income of $58K is not "poor" for any age, It is today and going forward, as far as anyone can tell.

Within the OECD, only Switzerland, Norway, and Luxembourg have a higher median household income than the U.S.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/45ae3dae-en.pdf?expi...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#276

Post by wayoutthere » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 10:23 PM UTC

tdfx wrote: post #232

wayoutthere wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change, and how brittle the JIT-optimized global logistics system we built over the last 50 years is. We can and will need to adjust to a more flexible system to deal with the increased disruption from climate change, but that system will be more expensive and less efficient. Couple this with the fact that we’re going to eventually have food shortages at least locally in the short-to-medium term, which will d…

Can you elaborate on how you feel climate change has recently affected this issue? It seems more likely to me that the recent pandemic is the major issue. > This long-term famine is already happening in Central America and is driving more and more migrants north every year. This is certainly a problem but not nearly a major reason that migrants are coming north. They're coming north because they can make their monthl…

Economic migrants sure, but the chain to crushing poverty starts with climate change. Persistent high heat and violent tropical weather patterns have made areas of Central America near the equator effectively unfarmable. Those farmers pack up and move to the cities, where they live in poverty and at the mercy of organized crime as they are largely uneducated and lack job skills.

The cities are overcrowded and these countries have little industry outside agriculture, which is increasingly difficult and expensive thanks to climate change. So of course they flee north; and Mexico has many of the same problems with collusion between police and organized crime — particularly when targeting migrant populations.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#277

Post by marak830 » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 10:29 PM UTC

trenning wrote: post #227

I'm about to go full vegetarian with these food prices. Beef has been too expensive for years, the only beef I've bought for years from grocery stores is bulk pack ground on sale but now on sale is $7/lb. Chicken breast has been my main staple, on sale usually for $2-3/lb, now it's on sale at $5/lb for the cheap bulk packs. Around me it's a wash to cook at home or eat out (at small restaurants/food trucks). I expect…

That's quite cheap to say, here in Japan.

Pork and chicken here are quite cheap at 70c/100g for pork and 50c/100g of chicken.

Then again we don't use as much meat per serving here(approx 80-120g per person, on an average dinner).

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#278

Post by techsin101 » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 10:32 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #247

techsin101 wrote: post #49

It's not transitory. Prices have increased, unless there is extreme deflation, they aren't going down. Prices will continue to increase. At this rate, feds will have no control.

You can put your money where your mouth is by setting up a divergent-pairs position for T-bills and TIPS. The markets still believe the FED knows better than you. But hey, the great thing about our system is that you're always allowed to bet against it.

history would beg to defer.. esp when fed said themselves: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/upshot/inflation-economy-...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#279

Post by throwawaygh » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 10:38 PM UTC

Sammi wrote: post #269

mullingitover wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CEO of Square, but also kind of a crank who's long on crypto, so he has a vested interest in convincing people to YOLO their savings into crypto so he can cash in. I take his statements with several blocks of salt.

Just wow. So he's just a crank because he likes Bitcoin now? How easily you just brushed off the successful startup ceo of not one, but two huge tech startups (Twitter, Square). What do you think it takes to be able to do what he did? Oh no, he's just a crank because he likes Bitcoin now, let's just brush off everything he says from now on. It's not like he's someone who's actually proven himself capable and as someo…

> So he's just a crank because he likes Bitcoin now?

Read it as "he's a crank and also likes bitcoin".

Anyways. There's undeniably a massive PR campaign right now to get retail investors into crypto. Fucking football players and media personalities are taking paychecks in bitcoin and posting PR-drafted tweets about it.

Even if I were still long crypto, I'd be sitting the next few months out. Way too reminiscent of dotcom -- folks who know nothing about finance, investing, or crypto are "investing" in highly volatile speculative vehicles. This only ends one way.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#280

Post by boc » Wed, Nov 10, 2021, 11:08 PM UTC

wayoutthere wrote: post #272

boc wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which will remain the United States as the sole superpower. China does not have a blue-water navy and won't for another decade+, which means they cannot regulate oil shipping routes worldwide like the USN. Russia can't project naval power outside their region. The entire EU collectively doesn't have close to the naval power that the US does, and does not have the resources to keep routes open. The petrodollar is The…

All of which only really matters to those of us on this side of the ocean. China doesn’t need to project naval power, they project economic and political power due to being physically closer and a large exporter. Belt and road is their method for controlling the transport of goods. They can get oil/gas from Russia and the Middle East over land via trucks and pipelines. Which is why I think the next 10 years will disp…

First off, oil is a global commodity, so it's not true that you can just isolate yourself from global price movements.

Second, how many soldiers in the Chinese PLA or PLAN have ever fired a weapon against a hostile force? The US has spent the better part of two decades in an active war environment. For better or worse, there's value to having actual experience with large-scale invasions. It's not being "ground into dusty incompetence", it's being battle-tested.

Third, the US military doctrine since WWII has been about fighting two wars at once. We can certainly protect Taiwan and the Persian Gulf at the same time. If we couldn't, then any intervention wouldn't be credible because the second we invade a nation, all other strategic objectives would be at risk.