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US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

theguardian.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#81

Post by snarf21 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17

Interest rates really should have went up a couple of years ago. Not just for the sake of stemming inflation, but what good is the tool of lower rates in bad times when they are already at bottom in good times? If something goes wrong (or more wrong) we will have no effective economic tools available because they are constantly running as if we are in crisis already.

You are right but they have only one tool left and that is to print money. Which is what the Fed has been doing for 18 months and why the stock market is only up and up as all this money is chasing equities. We are really about to find out what MMT can and can't do. If it can't, we could end up in a depression (not recession).

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#82

Post by shepherdjerred »

politician wrote: post #71
ALittleLight wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very sad to consider young men dying for their country while old men are too afraid to risk four years off their political career for it.

A significant number of our elected representatives are women.

The parent was referring to US presidents which have all been males.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#83

Post by simonsarris »

crisdux wrote: post #52
simonsarris wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I have used only US commodity prices, except crude and a global energy figure, which is why I also added US kwh prices. All food prices mentioned are US-only figures.

The link you provided in your previous post is about global prices and uses global commodity data. They are certainly not US-only figures. Correcting this error would likely show you that inflation is real.

That article is about world food prices, every single link I give in my comments contain US-only food prices: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29114501

I have never said that inflation is not real, only that this price inflation has merely returned prices to 2011-2014 levels (excepting beef, which is actually at a new high).

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#84

Post by savanaly »

mattmoose21 wrote: post #41

Reading this article and going through these comments make me realize that while I know what these words are I have a real lack of understanding how this stuff works. This may not be the best place to ask but do any of you guys have any recommendations on where to learn more about economics? Preferably something with good historical context.

Greg Mankiw's introductory economics textbooks (one for micro and one for macro, if you care about the sort of stuff in this thread you care about macro) are well respected and neutral. You don't have to read the latest edition, an edition from just a few years ago would be fine and should be quite cheap used on Amazon.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#85

Post by ameetgaitonde »

politician wrote: post #71
ALittleLight wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very sad to consider young men dying for their country while old men are too afraid to risk four years off their political career for it.

A significant number of our elected representatives are women.

The Federal Reserve Board Chairman is appointed by the President of the United States, not Congress.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/defaul...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#86

Post by littlestymaar »

anm89 wrote: post #68
throwawaygh wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the Federal reserve also has no leverage to modify the prime interest rate to combat this inflation, as it already sits near-zero ...huh? If you want to lower inflation you'd typically raise interest rates... (These sorts of stupid-simple mistakes are pretty typical from inflation fearmongers in threads like this one... a lot of words that make it sounds like they know what they're talking about but sprinkled with…

Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The smart mmoney is on rates staying low for a long time which shows you just how powerless the Fed is right now. They would LOVE to raise rates. They can't.

They will raise it as soon as inflation goes up, even if it cause the entire economy to struggle. Volker did exactly that in the early 80s.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#87

Post by Dumblydorr »

mint2 wrote: post #58

A main cause of inflation sticking around is public perception of inflation existing. I feel like there is solid perception that inflation exists. I would not bet on it being transitory. Even if the underlying cause goes away, it will take longer for the perception to go away because is a self reinforcing phenomenon.

Why is it self reinforcing? Is it inherent to economics or is it psychological? If bacon goes back down 25%, will the local breakfast shop see those savings? Will they pass them on to their customers? Or will their supply chain or the restaurants themselves absorb the profit and keep the prices high for consumers? Even if they keep the prices heightened, if they don't raise them further, then that'd be a leveling off of inflation, right?

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#88

Post by hartator »

dubcanada wrote: post #53
kerng wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You miss the key point on why this is happening and will continue to get significantly worse. What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened? Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off? Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

I have no idea what you are saying. Also what is "just math" and why can't it be reversed? Inflation can go down, it's not a purely up percentage, you can have negative inflation. What do you mean by "number of dollars approximately doubles in 2"?

> What do you mean by "number of dollars approximately doubles in 2"?

I think OP was talking about monetary inflation. We nearly double the money supply so it should translate to a nearly double price inflation.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#89

Post by wbsss4412 »

starkd wrote: post #45
boringg wrote: post #27

Hey everyone - we need to chill out for a second. Stop buying the knee jerk reaction of the media trying to freak everyone out and get some good advertising dollars. This is going to take until after the new year maybe Q1-Q3 timeframe to see if it is transitory. Reminder: we had an unprecedented global supply collapse followed by shutdowns and border closures for more than a year combined with historic levels of fast…

All you have to do is look at the Fed balance sheet to get an inkling of what's going on. They are monetizing the debt. Inflation is a very simple concept to understand. It's too many dollars facing too few goods. I understand no one wants a panic, but you also don't want to bury your head in the sand.

6% inflation is nothing to panic over.

People equate the fed not hitting their 2% target with hyperinflation and it’s absolutely maddening to see the level of discourse drop to astounding lows when this happens.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#90

Post by kerng »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #78
kerng wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You miss the key point on why this is happening and will continue to get significantly worse. What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened? Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off? Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.

Setting aside my other issues with this analysis, this is just flat out incorrect: > it can’t just be reversed I don’t know where you’ve gotten this idea from. The fed can destroy money just the same as it can create it.

That's an interesting point, has that ever been done?
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