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Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

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Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#121
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistically all of new tokens are Ethereum tokens. Could just buy & ride ETH to the end.

How does this work? You mean to say dweb creators more often than not _choose_ to use eth instead of their own tokens?

They chose their own tokens but those tokens are valued in ETH at the end of the day.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#122
post #22

because it has "risk" and "real" return possibility. Unlike stock market where boombers finance and exits their IPO to consumers. VCs get 1000x consumers maybe few times or less. Does that make sense? No gambling gives you possiblity to do 1000x but crypto does and for so many times over the years. To anyone that says ponzi, what do you think Financial system with fiat money is? Does anyone even here mention how boom…

I must be a bit out of the loop: what is a "boomber?" "Boomer" doesn't make even a little sense in context so it must mean something else?

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#123

Cryptocurrency is backed by the same thing as any other currency: popularity and consumer confidence. Whether such sentiments are "warranted" or "deserved" is a subjective matter, but that is irrelevant to determining its economic influence - enough people have invested in it for network effects to all but guarantee its continued relevance.

> Cryptocurrency is backed by the same thing as any other currency: popularity and consumer confidence. I don't think currency is just a confidence game. The most important thing is that the currency is actually used to make transactions that are meaningful to human life. A currency that isn't used to exchange goods is just a collectible. There is no such thing as an abstract "store of value" that has no actual utili…

>The most important thing is that the currency is actually used to make transactions that are meaningful to human life.

Millions of people use cryptocurrency on a daily basis to make transactions that are not only meaningful, but absolutely critical to human life. Here in New York I personally know more than a dozen people who regularly send cryptocurrency to their families in other countries. It is cheaper, easier and faster than using banks and legacy money transfer vehicles like Moneygram or Western Union and it has the added bonus of not being saddled with the red tape or regulatory requirements that go along with these institutions.

Here's one personal anecdote. Several years ago I attempted to send a small amount of money ($50) to a friend in Ecuador via Moneygram. When my friend went to pick up the money, it wasn't there, so I called Moneygram. They proceeded to ask me a series of questions about why I sent the money, who I was sending it to, and a variety of other intrusive questions that (in my opinion) they have absolutely no right to ask. If I had sent that money in crypto, I would have paid less of a fee and had confidence it would arrive without going through the third degree by a middle man.

I find that wealthy people, those with deep ties to traditional banking systems and those who don't value their privacy are the ones who have the biggest problem understanding the value in cryptocurrency. They don't see the need to operate outside of a system that works very well for them. For many, the system doesn't work well, or efficiently, and crypto offers a valuable alternative.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#124
post #10

Valuations going up even when value is not being generated by a company is happening across the board; not just crypto.

Theoretically, if you're going to sell something the most profit would fundamentally be made from products which had the least cost or value at the source.

When the floor represented by underlying value is not very significant compared to retail price, then the sales bonanza should be expected to propagate further along a chain of middlemen, so more fun for more enthusiasts the more valueless you can get.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#125

- Excessive Liquidity: There's money sloshing around the global economy looking for a place to go. - Crypto Marketability: It's become very easy for people to buy and sell cryptocurrency. - Speculation: Regardless of what problems cryptocurrencies pretend to solve, their actual value so far has only been as a speculative investment. Like traditional equities, cryptocurrency is benefiting from the highly speculative m…

> - Excessive Liquidity: There's money sloshing around the global economy looking for a place to go.

Here is an intuitive explanation: China runs an trade surplus vs USA. China gets USD and USA gets products. Because of the trade surplus there is no reason to invest into USA because as long as China is sending products to the US there is no reason to produce those products in the USA. Yields for conventional domestic industries drop as they move to China. The problem is quite obvious. If China spends its money on American capital it is inherently engaging in speculative investment. A basic understanding of economics tells you money should go where the highest yields are, in other words, the money should stay in China until their wages rise and they have no competitive edge.

Well, but the trade surplus is born from foreign exchange policy. So the money comes rushing into American stocks and housing regardless of the risks. It's plausible that Bitcoin is just being used to evade capital controls. The speculative nature of Bitcoin isn't a downside, it's actually a nice bonus to them.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation refers to the price of goods/services. Stocks are neither.

Stocks represent the present value of future claims on consumption.

Ok, now actually read what you said.

If the price of stocks goes up without revenue going up that just means people value future consumption more and present consumption less. That has absolutely nothing to do with inflation. If anything, it's disinflationary.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#127

Cryptocurrency is backed by the same thing as any other currency: popularity and consumer confidence. Whether such sentiments are "warranted" or "deserved" is a subjective matter, but that is irrelevant to determining its economic influence - enough people have invested in it for network effects to all but guarantee its continued relevance.

Most fiat currencies are backed by the fact that people made themselves liable to accept that currency. It's a literal "I owe you". A restaurant owner promises to work to earn money, the bank gives the restaurant owner money via a loan. The money is spent on a bigger restaurant, the construction workers who built the restaurant get the money and they can then go to the restaurant and pay to eat there. They don't have to worry whether their shiny rock is currently worth something. The restaurant owner has a loan he wants to repay. He'll gladly take your money. At the end of the day it is just delayed barter.

Except, nothing forces people to spend their money so the barter transaction may never conclude which allows economic imbalances to build up over the short term which violentely resolve themselves through a crash. Inflation could be interpreted as a tiny crash every year that rebalances transactions made in the economy.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cryptocurrency is backed by the same thing as any other currency: popularity and consumer confidence. I don't think currency is just a confidence game. The most important thing is that the currency is actually used to make transactions that are meaningful to human life. A currency that isn't used to exchange goods is just a collectible. There is no such thing as an abstract "store of value" that has no actual utili…

I suppose I should mention a data point that might go against my own thesis: the performance of gold. While gold has some legitimate uses in jewelry and technology, its price in recent years seems to be driven mostly by financial speculation, the same "store of value" theory that drives crypto. I think this theory is nonsense but it's true that if enough people believe it, it can become sort-of-true for a while, unti…

It's nonsense because if you sell your potatoes for gold, why would you be able to get those potatoes back 30 years later?

The sad answer is population growth. The optimistic answer is that the person ate the potatoes which gave him the strength to harvest potatoes in 30 years. The realistic answer is that you should have no expectation that you ever get any potatoes back as the potatoes have spoiled and nobody is exerting additional energy to counteract the loss.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#129
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the same thing as any other currency: popularity and consumer confidence Real money is backed by your obligation to pay taxes in that currency.. not popularity or confidence.

People manage to come up with mediums of exchange even in the absence of taxing governments.

True, all you need is to track debts. Gold is just a token that represents an implicit balance sheet. It's effectively security technology. The problem is that an implicit balance sheet is highly speculative. People owe each other products and services. The gold standard is still credit money.

However, no given individual has to accept the currency and has to owe anything to anyone. Because there aren't any explicit agreements or written contracts between parties anyone can back out at any instant. That is why gold is so highly speculative. Nobody really knows how much stuff you can get out of it if you were to trade it for products and services.

Re: Ask HN: Why crypto is rising so fast when its not creating value?

#130

Speculation of meme coins has dominated the news recently but there are some amazing coins with real utility. Ethereum tends to get viewed negatively because it can become so insanely expensive to do anything on the chain but in reality that means that the market is willing to pay for those transactions to occur which suggests that there is some real utility to the ecosystem that has real world value.

If those coins have real utility then the amount of utility you can get out of it goes down as the coin goes up in value.

Expensive Ethereum leads to expensive gas prices. If you want to play an NFT game then the speculators are just middleman that want to insert themselves between you and the game.

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