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Elite Underproduction

troynikov.io

201–210 of 297 posts

Re: Elite Underproduction

#201
post #2

I strongly agree with the premise of the article, and I wish more of society was aware of the issues that propagate what the author calls "Elite Underproduction". However, while I agree with the premise, I think the precise factors that create this issue are not sufficiently discussed or agreed upon (Not enough money goes into science research? Regulation imposes too heavy a burden on the outputs of scientific endeav…

> However, while I agree with the premise, I think the precise factors that create this issue are not sufficiently discussed or agreed upon (Not enough money goes into science research? Regulation imposes too heavy a burden on the outputs of scientific endeavors in the material world? We culturally are not sufficiently accepting of those people who would like to do elite-esque style research?). I'm not sure what the…

You've got some timely details drawn from an experienced point of view.

Even beyond formal credentials scientific progress can primarily only be made by relatively fewer workers then ever holding their position or inching upstream against an increasing current flowing downstream.

I think what you will find is that the rewards for STEM creatives who are in position for their abilities to be leveraged by mass media, will always be greater than those without it.

Microsoft started selling CD's as fast as Michael Jackson but for 10X the price.

DOS had already been pulling people away from natural science since the '80's.

Apple mass-marketed pop music to sell hardware.

Google started as an anti-advertising utility but reversed stance to convert a huge user base into a mass market.

Amazon was all about a mass market to begin with.

Facebook is what the National Enquirer would be like if they had gotten the idea to scale an internet concept and had that kind of capital to strategically deploy earlier.

Mass media has such a major component consisting of fiction this is an attraction plain natural science does not possess. Scientific research has such a focus on pure reality that mainstream interest just can not be maintained continuously, as so much relatively unexciting time must pass before progress finally pushes one little bit of reality to actually become better than fiction.

But that's where it starts to get good.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#202

I disagree with the article's premises and conclusions, my perspective is that of a physicist who also knows many lapsed physicists. The premise seems wrong in that he disagrees with the elite overproduction thesis, but the professions he lists are " lawyers, MBA holders,..." and later to finance. But these are the professions likely to be zero-sum. So to me the article really is "I agree with the elite overproductio…

> overproduction of physics PhDs relative to academic positions available Why are positions researching physics so closely tied to academic positions? We probably don't need too many more physics professors but we sure could use more physics research. Or maybe better physics research. Either way, more/better physics discoveries. That said, our scientific communication channels seem filled to the brink. So maybe we ne…

Because those are the places hiring physicists.

When we were focused on building hydrogen bombs and rockets to obliterate civilization, everyone needed a friendly neighborhood physicist.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#203

There are way too many examples to validate the elite overproduction theory. Just right now we don’t have enough skilled trade workers to execute on the infrastructure plan. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/us/politics/biden-infrast...

The lack of skilled trades people is not a consequence of elite overproduction, it is a result of the collapse of the apprentice class. The combination of improvements in technology making low skill work easier and an expansion of bureaucracy that requires more certification for more complicated work have made it such that there is a wide gulf between unskilled and skilled labor in most industries. Where in the past people would gain experience on the job and their employers would get useful work out of entry level employees, now training represents a significant investment which is liable to be poached, and thus there is no training pipeline. To reach the skill level required to make good money at a trade, you need to be willing to invest large amounts of time and money into your own tools and training, and anyone who can afford to do that can afford to work in better conditions in other fields. This is short term thinking by corporations biting them in the butt, not some "millenials are too entitled to do real work" bs.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#204

Offtopic, but the article uses and defines "MAGMA", meaning Meta, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. That actually makes a lot of sense to me. How did Netflix make it into the usual acronym and not Microsoft?

Netflix makes a better acronym MANGA

I miss the days of HP, eBay, Netscape, Texas Instruments, Adobe, and IBM.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#205
post #194

This is extremely physics-centered. 2021 is an especially poor year to complain about our society producing enough elites to expand our understanding of the physical world, given that this year billions of people are currently being inoculated against a novel disease by vaccines built on a novel platform in record time. And when new therapeutic vectors are becoming readily available for the same disease, also in reco…

But that vaccine? Partially developed by one woman who was treated like dirt by U Penn because she insisted on pursuing mRNA vaccines, solely because she wasn't bringing in enough federal grant money. Demoted. Supported by another faculty member to do it. U Penn now likes to try to take credit for it even though this research was done despite them, not because of it. This woman leaves university academics to pursue r…

Sure, we're not optimizing. But my point still stands that yes, we are making progress, and yes science is delivering in places where it counts right now. The pessimism is unwarranted.

What would be more interesting to me is some critical analysis of why the American sciences in particular are structured to exclude most of the minds on the planet. What are we losing, for instance, by the fact that our institutions are not able to attract and retain women and other historically underestimated groups? What are we losing by making our immigration regime more repellent to scientific talent, such that more people stay in places where they are not able to maximize their gifts? Especially in the context of the difficulties encountered by the researcher you cited, it seems obvious that an examination of these historic biases is warranted, although it would be more unpleasant & politically charged than railing against capital structures etc.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#206
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be outcompeted because other labs could hire many more grad students for the same cost.

Why?

Academics can subsidize some research costs through tuition and splitting work researchers do to teaching. It's a business model that has been working well because of ever increasing demand for people to get at least a bachealors degree. It's not really about tenure per se, it's more that the academic business model can provide a stable revenue stream for some research work.

Labs that don't have this often require either a business to subsidize their work or they suddenly become completely reliant in grants. These environments are highly unstable in terms of job security. Positions are tied to a grant or a mixture of grants and difficult to maintain. If one or enough sources fail and the role is completely paid through grant money, it suddenly becomes untenable and people leave the role. The advantage academic environments have is that revenue stream to cushion the instability and provide stability.

It also lures in cheaper labor from grad students and post docs which helps.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

Academics can subsidize some research costs through tuition and splitting work researchers do to teaching. It's a business model that has been working well because of ever increasing demand for people to get at least a bachealors degree. It's not really about tenure per se, it's more that the academic business model can provide a stable revenue stream for some research work. Labs that don't have this often require ei…

I had the impression that even at very prestigious schools lab funding is mostly from grants.

I'd be interested to see how much of, say, the UNC Chapel Hill chemistry department's research expenditures come out of grants. Do you know how I'd find the information?

Two other points:

> Labs that don't have this often require either a business to subsidize their work or they suddenly become completely reliant in grants.

In what sense is the first case, a business sponsoring the lab, not "grants"?

> It's not really about tenure per se, it's more that the academic business model can provide a stable revenue stream for some research work.

But the original claim was that the cost of employing researchers is lower for an academic lab than it would be for a new lab. ("other labs could hire many more grad students for the same cost.") That has nothing to do with the availability of funding or cross-subsidies! Is it true or not?

Re: Elite Underproduction

#208
Speaking anecdotally, but also observing crowd sentiments on social media, I agree with this article on the point that overproduction can lead to instability. It is very easy for people to blame anything but themselves for their circumstances. My friends who pursued degrees in overproduced fields (PhDs but also bachelors, masters) tend to automatically blame the system. They expect to be able to live in major city centers (which are highly desirable and expensive), doing the job their degree maps to, with a high quality of life, and access to luxuries. But the reality is that most of them are “lapsed” and doing other kinds of jobs, and aren’t earning the amounts they once dreamed of. That has left them bitter and they blame political parties, American values, the Constitution, … it doesn’t matter - emotionally, they are very willing to throw it all away. I’m no historical expert, but I get the sense that if even just 5% of the population harbors such sentiments, it would result in unmanageable unrest and societal collapse.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Academics can subsidize some research costs through tuition and splitting work researchers do to teaching. It's a business model that has been working well because of ever increasing demand for people to get at least a bachealors degree. It's not really about tenure per se, it's more that the academic business model can provide a stable revenue stream for some research work. Labs that don't have this often require ei…

I had the impression that even at very prestigious schools lab funding is mostly from grants. I'd be interested to see how much of, say, the UNC Chapel Hill chemistry department's research expenditures come out of grants. Do you know how I'd find the information? Two other points: > Labs that don't have this often require either a business to subsidize their work or they suddenly become completely reliant in grants.…

Grants are definitely also important in academia, but at least the base salary of professors and some of the grad students ends up being covered by the university out of separate revenue sources (mostly tuition, but sometimes state funding or endowment), which makes it a bit easier. It also means that if you go a few years between grants you still get paid, and you can still get your grad students paid by having them be TAs for classes (instead of RAs on your grants). I'm not sure how to get hard data on what percentage of expenditures in a given department come from which sources, which would definitely be interesting.

There are so-called "soft money" positions that really are 100% grant-funded. In academia, people with those usually have a title like Research Professor and they're expected to pay their own salary out of their grants! They have no teaching responsibilities, since the university isn't directly paying them anything. But imo this is a much more stressful arrangement since you don't have the regular university salary to fall back on. Some researchers at small companies are essentially like that, having to bring in a stream of SBIRs to keep themselves paid.

I don't think researchers' base employment necessarily has to go through universities, it's just ended up as the most common mechanism for researchers to get a stable salary. The Institute for Advanced Study [1] is an alternate model, funding researchers' salaries out of its nearly $1 billion endowment and a stream of donations and institution-level grants, without being attached to a university. Kind of like a "think tank", but for science. But institutions along that model currently (at least in the U.S.) employ a tiny number of researchers compared to either universities or industrial research labs.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Advanced_Study

Re: Elite Underproduction

#210
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be outcompeted because other labs could hire many more grad students for the same cost.

Why?

Because if you pay less per worker then you can hire more workers for the same cost. I struggle to see how that's confusing?
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