Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85% • Hacker News Board

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#531

Post by nradov » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:30 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #476

spazrunaway wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data shows that being vaccinated divides your odds of dying and being hospitalized from covid by about 10. There's no evidence I'm aware of showing that the vaccines create additional risk anywhere close to outweighing that benefit.

Don’t mistake relative risk for absolute risk. Not everyone who is vaccinated gets Covid, but everyone vaccinated is at risk of vaccine side effects. If a 30 year old has a 0.08% chance of hospitalization, the risk drops to 0.008%. But they might stand a 1 in 5 chance of getting infected so now it’s 0.016% to 0.0016%. But if they get injected with a vaccine, the risk of a rare side effect might be 1 in 100,000 or 0.0…

Your numbers are way off. The CDC estimated the hospitalization rate in the 18-49 age group at 3%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#532

Post by colordrops » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

danans wrote: post #487

wincy wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Kansas and have basically forgotten COVID is a thing. The people who wanted to get vaccinated like me have and those who haven’t, haven’t. Nobody asks about it and no businesses have any sort of mask requirements. Half of the people at the grocery store wear masks and the other half don’t. Everyone seems to be getting along. Next door in Kansas City Missouri I stopped at a gas station and an employee was sh…

In California, except for wearing masks in retail establishments, everything has been back to normal for months. School has been full time in person, and traffic sucks once again.

I wouldn't call it "back to normal".

In addition to the mask mandates, which are more bothersome than you make out (e.g. it's pretty tiring to do cardio at the gym with a mask), there are other restrictions. Parents aren't allowed on our school campus, we don't have any in-person school events, kids get tested once a week, kids have to stay at 3 feet from each other at school, no wind instrument classes.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#533

Post by ghastmaster » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #340

dontcare007 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's just it, there's less than a 2% chance of dying even if you get COVID.

According to the CDC, the actual infection fatality ratio is 0.6%. Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

> Fortunately vaccination cuts that pretty close to zero.

Unfortunately as can be seen in table 5 from the link below, vaccination does not bring the fatality rate close to zero. It brings it closer to zero depending on your age. Bearing in mind this applies to hospitalized patients only(therefore not exactly IFR), the rate of death was reduced by vaccination in people over the age of 50, but not in people under the age of 50. Vaccination helps in certain cohorts.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#534

Post by HWR_14 » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

djrogers wrote: post #124

matsemann wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the consequence of not taking it is death, I think people would run to the front of the queue, though.

Sounds like the consequence of not taking it is a 0.5% chance of death, so probably not a lot of running for those who understand COVID death rates.

If this drug is administered in the hospital, you already have a severe case and are far more likely to die.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#535

Post by mindslight » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

president wrote: post #504

fknorangesite wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the common anti vax sentiments I hear on this web site (ugh). Seeing this stuff so prevalent on HN really disappointed me.

Try to understand why this viewpoint exists. We are all logical people. The difference is in the trust of public media and government. Both sides of the argument are mostly right in what they believe given the information they are consuming. My suggestion - read sources from both sides before deciding that anyone slightly against Covid hysteria is misinformed and is an anti-vaxxer. Second suggestion, anti-vaxxer is a…

The anti-vax movement is in the uncanny valley of media trust. If they had more trust, they'd follow traditional institutional recommendations as most had done for decades. If they had less trust, they'd realize that Faceboot et al are just more media sources hijacking their sense of social proof. The path to actually rejecting "the media" isn't to just follow substitute media that promotes opposite viewpoints - you have to reason from first principles and look to falsify every single thing you read.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#536

Post by Robotbeat » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #461

thehappypm wrote: post #390

It’s crazy that money is such a huge incentive. Knowing that a cure for Covid is a potentially $100B market means you throw the kitchen sink at it. Imagine being this lab. Do you think they ever had trouble hiring an assistant? Buying new equipment? Getting bonuses? This environment must be fantastically different from the typical meat grinder of bio R&D.

I don't think it's fair to say that it's just money. There's also a global crisis and a huge need for such a drug.

Well hopefully money serves as a tool for prioritizing resources for important problems. Seems to be working well in this case.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#537

Post by colordrops » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #473

Server6 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fairly clear what the exit criteria is. Hospital capacity. When hospitals are filling up COVID measures are necessary. COVID is endemic now and will ebb and flow over the next decade. As such I would expect COVID measures to come and go based on local health department and hospital capacity needs.

> When hospitals are filling up COVID measures are necessary. They are only "necessary" if you are optimizing the metric "make sure hospitals run smoothly" over any other concerns. I hate this framing that Covid restrictions are ever forced on us, rather than being a policy choice with pros and cons.

I'd imagine that scaling up ICU capacity has to be more efficient than constantly enacting mandates on the entire population for a decade.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#538

Post by jartelt » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

Steltek wrote: post #209

jartelt wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could see things starting to really ease up once all children have had a chance to be vaccinated and everyone else has had a chance to get their 6 month booster shot.

Not everyone is eligible for a booster shot.

Yes - which why I doubt we will see full "reopening" everywhere until they open up boosters to everyone and provide time for people who want them to get them.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#539

Post by colordrops » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

anthonypasq wrote: post #162

colordrops wrote: post #110

Does anyone have a sense as to when US society will completely eliminate COVID measures? Is it just me or is there no clear exit criteria anymore? This will go on forever without exit criteria.

not exactly sure where you live but they are completely gone in most of the country. I live in a solidly blue New England state and I havent seriously thought about Covid for months. been going to packed bars, house parties, restaurants, music festivals, concerts all with no masks

LA. School activities and procedures, which are a big part of life for families with kids, are still heavily restricted.

Re: Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%

#540

Post by jartelt » Fri, Nov 05, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

salemh wrote: post #348

jartelt wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could see things starting to really ease up once all children have had a chance to be vaccinated and everyone else has had a chance to get their 6 month booster shot.

Children aren't at risk from Covid at all. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have died from all causes: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se... They are more likely to be injured by these vaccines and neurotic parents stuffing them into mas…

A portion of parents are very worried about Covid in their children. These parents have sway with school administrators and local governments. All I am saying is that I doubt we get total easing of Covid restrictions until these kids have had ample chance to be vaccinated. I'm not making any arguments or claims about what you are taking about.