The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m • Hacker News Board

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#11

Post by gravyjones » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 8:01 AM UTC

joshuamorton wrote: post #9

gravyjones wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. People stopped going to the hospital. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavi... 2. Untrained nurses were operating the ventilators, resulting in deaths. 3. Massive unemployment 4. Very unheathly eating/drinking/no exercise habits of lockdown. Weight gain stress. I could add more, but #1 is probably the biggest contributor. Surgeries were canceled, preventative care and diagnostic tests were d…

2 would be caused by covid. "People get covid induced pneumonia, but due to the overwhelming number of people in need of acute care, more than might normally do so die" is still "people dying due to covid" 1, 3 and 4 still happened in other parts of the world with even stricter lockdowns (Oceania, southeast Asia), but they didn't face the same excess mortality, so that doesn't fully explain things.

I hear what you are saying, and maybe I have to look into what happened in other countries to know more.

But right now my intiution tells me if there is double digit unemployment, people stop going to the hospital, and they believe it is 'the end of the world', then more deaths will be the result. How many more deaths? Thats the question.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#12

Post by gravyjones » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 8:29 AM UTC

joshuamorton wrote: post #10

ekianjo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).

Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im being earnest.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#13

Post by WalterGR » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 8:36 AM UTC

gravyjones wrote: post #12

joshuamorton wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42%

Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non-technically-emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Monday through Friday.)

So ER visits dropped 42%... what does that mean exactly? For example: people having heart attacks deciding to die at home vs. people who hurt themselves over a weekend deciding to skip the ER and wait to go to their doctor's office on Monday?

they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid

What has the mortality rate from heart attacks and stroke been since early 2020?

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#14

Post by dragonwriter » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 8:45 AM UTC

gravyjones wrote: post #12

joshuamorton wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

> people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid

People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#15

Post by gravyjones » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 9:01 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #14

gravyjones wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

> people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

Yes you are probably right. It's because of covid or the perception and response to covid.

I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man suffers.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#16

Post by gravyjones » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 9:14 AM UTC

WalterGR wrote: post #13

gravyjones wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non- technically -emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Mon…

Honestly since all my posts have been downvoted thats not really an incentive for me to continue further even though I could. I provided links to latimes, CDC data, and I get downvoted. Maybe Im wrong or maybe this topic is to contentious, but honestly is it even worth talking about anymore? Things are how they are any neither you or I will change it.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#17

Post by WalterGR » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 10:40 AM UTC

gravyjones wrote: post #16

WalterGR wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non- technically -emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Mon…

Honestly since all my posts have been downvoted thats not really an incentive for me to continue further even though I could. I provided links to latimes, CDC data, and I get downvoted. Maybe Im wrong or maybe this topic is to contentious, but honestly is it even worth talking about anymore? Things are how they are any neither you or I will change it.

It's never pleasant to have one's comments downvoted.

But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality.

Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointments, or because of misdiagnosis. But that's simply not the cause of the majority of the excess deaths.

What numbers would you want to see on that? I suspect they're available...

From another of your comments on this post: This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us.

By money changing hands do you mean the claim that hospitals exaggerate their COVID numbers because they get more money somehow? This is disproven, and many fact-checks have been published about it. Here's one from a FOX affiliate: https://fox11online.com/news/fox-11-investigates/fact-check-...

things happening very fast all around us.

That's very true. Being in the middle of a brand-new pandemic is disorienting. As time goes on, we'll have more hard data to guide policy decisions. Let's hope that politicians use it.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#18

Post by native_samples » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 11:07 AM UTC

WalterGR wrote: post #13

gravyjones wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non- technically -emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Mon…

The same thing happened with roughly the same proportion in the UK, so no it's not to do with the US health system. It's to do with telling people there's a hospital crisis and they have a social duty to not go.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#19

Post by native_samples » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 11:08 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #14

gravyjones wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

> people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

Specifically, it's an effect of mistaken predictions about COVID. COVID is still with us and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals now, unfortunately, the backlog isn't clearable except by people dying whilst waiting for treatment (in the UK at least).

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#20

Post by gravyjones » Wed, Nov 03, 2021, 11:09 AM UTC

WalterGR wrote: post #17

gravyjones wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly since all my posts have been downvoted thats not really an incentive for me to continue further even though I could. I provided links to latimes, CDC data, and I get downvoted. Maybe Im wrong or maybe this topic is to contentious, but honestly is it even worth talking about anymore? Things are how they are any neither you or I will change it.

It's never pleasant to have one's comments downvoted. But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality. Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointm…

For the CDC report you can read their article

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e1.htm

"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. "

Or better yet, just glance their infographic:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/social-media/mm6923e1...

If you read between the lines, you know they have a serious problem here with people avoiding care.

Billionaires net worth increased 70% [trillions] during pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/28/politics/billionaire-wealth-t...

And I will say this: personally I've done quite well financially during the pandemic, through tech wages and investments. And part of me thinks, well the shift we are doing as a society is necessary as we step into the future. But part of me also feels bad for the people who have to lose and die to make this shift happen. We have so much momentum towards where our society feels it is destined to be, and covid just feels like an excuse to be another step in that direction. Maybe I should just shut my mouth and let it happen, but Im an idiot so there you have it.