Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt • Hacker News Board

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#271

Post by jackorange » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #263

jackorange wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where it's being blocked in your view but to use my earlier example of silicon valley, maybe there is a limitation of geographic space, resources in relation to population, and zoning considerations. Maybe silicon valley workers could sponsor the building of a floating land mass to add additional residential space unbound by traditional limitations.

Or we could just not zone as heavily? A recent building near me got blocked because it would add 0.001% (I know it sounds like hyperbole, but I promise I'm being dead serious that was the number) shadow to a nearby park. That is absurd and to pin it on "silicon valley workers" is nativist and dumb.

I know people who live where there is no zoning and went from having nothing but empty land next to their house, to a car mechanic, loud gym, fireworks stand, and many other undesirable businesses (to be living beside) in their backyard. You definitely will want some zoning. I am not familiar with zoning laws in your area and know you are not advocating for no zoning at all, but just food for thought.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#272

Post by BuckRogers » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I'm a 39 year renter flush with cash from 15 years of a professional job while living in austerity for the entire time. Soliciting free advice.

You sound bullish so I wanted to share five risks in the short term that have been on my mind lately:

1) Evictions now allowed in 43 states after a pandemic moratorium on them. My state allowed them October 3rd. Supply.

2) A China conflict at any point. Disruption.

3) Taxes going up on the wealthy. Disruption.

4) Rates going up to counter inflation. I want this one since I have cash and don't care if rates are 2% or 20%. While I do want the free loan (2%), I prefer the market to crash. Disruption.

5) Vaccine mandate job losses. Supply.

Given this, I've been extremely hesitant lately. So I've been trying to hold off until January for my purchase to see how correct I am, or not, on these risks impacting the market. I don't see the point in waiting years as rent drains about $18,000 a year and you have to balance that with home ownership costs. Even with repairs, I don't mind slightly overpaying if it means getting out of rent slavery. I'm also buying a home that I can nearly buy outright. I'm determined to never lose a home due to job loss, tired of working for someone else, so a 30-year mortgage isn't happening under any circumstance. 15-year only.

The one way I've been trying to protect myself is at least seeking a 15% discount off market rate for any home that I do purchase. I see that happening in my city enough that I'm confident. Eats into the 40% buffer from 2019, so I'm still at significant risk but does take some bite off in the event of a market catastrophe.

Any thoughts are welcome. Definitely would appreciate it. Whether the answer is: buy now, or, buy in 15 years. I'll try to integrate them into my view and choices.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#273

Post by lvs » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I'd like to see an analysis of how much institutional speculation is contributing to the market pricing exuberance in housing...

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#274

Post by medvezhenok » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:52 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #140

SilasX wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I suspect the Fed will tighten somewhat (taper should be announced tomorrow), but they keep stating that inflation is transitory. I hope so, but keep in mind, the Fed has lacked the will to tighten even in the most favorable conditions -- strong market, no covid -- merely because banks screamed bloody murder about having to pay slivers of a basis point more on overnight loans or (heaven forbid) stay more liquid so t…

Yeah, I don't have my hopes up, particularly. Things are so good right now on pretty much every metric, they have to at least taper, though. I suspect they will use overly dovish language at the announcement though, which will spur even further speculation. But the unfortunate aspect of the current fed is that they care way too much about the markets. And they are very short term oriented. They're pulling the good ti…

Everyone looks at the FED, but there's an interesting counterintuitive hypothesis out there that it's not actually the FED that has anything to do with inflation. In the 1970s, it was international credit creation by banks that was not tracked by the FED that caused persistent inflation (and their attempts to control it were futile since they were not tracking it), and now it's actually the government stimulus combined with the supply shortages that caused the inflation (like the pre-1955 era) - and the inflation will not last beyond this spike since it's not the FED that actually controls it, it's the intermediaries in the financial systems and the banks and their propensity to lend (which is still low relative to pre-GFC).

So the FED can do all it wants, but ultimately it's the other actors (banks, financial institutions and government in the form of transfers) that will ultimately decide the fate of inflation going forward - right now it's looking like disinflation/deflation after all of the stimulus and supply shortages work their way through the system (can be seen from the long end of the yield curve).

The FED's actions can and will affect the markets however - but that effect is mainly psychological.

https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/10/29/inflation-history-ev...

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#275

Post by mikysco » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:55 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

Aren't all these homes required to be listed on the MLS before being sold? My understanding is a home (at least in California) can't be sold unless publicly listed for X days on the MLS.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#276

Post by freeflight » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:55 PM UTC

gmadsen wrote: post #176

cletus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We really don't have any direct, past precedent for this type of situation Yeah, we do. Massive housing speculation in the mid-2000s. > The fact that Zillow failed on their initial attempt does not imply that this can't work I'm reminded of Gamestop here. Around the time $GME first spiked and then fell you saw lots of people trying to encourage everyone to hold. What this ignored is that someone would be left holdi…

This is radically different than the 2000s bubble. also GME is over $200 currently, when it was $10 a year ago

> also GME is over $200 currently, when it was $10 a year ago

And they got there by running a sustainable and profitable business? No, they got there because Reddit decided to play their own little game of pump&dump.

Which is yet another blatant example of how decoupled the stock market is from the actual real world economy.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#277

Post by hnbalsamicw » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:57 PM UTC

BuckRogers wrote: post #272

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I'm a 39 year renter flush with cash from 15 years of a professional job while living in austerity for the entire time. Soliciting free advice. You sound bullish so I wanted to share five risks in the short term that have been on my mind lately: 1) Evictions now allowed in 43 states after a pandemic moratorium on them. My state allowed them October 3rd. Supply. 2) A China conflict at any point. Disruption. 3) Taxes g…

same situ as you almost exactly :)

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#278

Post by xyzelement » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:58 PM UTC

humanistbot wrote: post #198

xyzelement wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In less than 3 years the rent in our working class city went up 45%. I sympathize with that but I want to make sure people understand the dynamics. Prices are driven by supply and demand. If there's only one empty apartment in the city and you're willing to pay $2000/month, I am gonna have to pay $2100 month if I want to live there instead of you. That's sort of separate (though related to) prices of houses. What w…

You're omitting a major component of the demand side: investors and speculators. If the market was just made up of the people who are looking to live in those homes, the market would be reasonable for those people. But we have a massive amount of investment funds looking for returns in an uncertain market, plus near zero interest rates for the near future. The number of investors who are buying houses they have no in…

The parent was talking about the rental market so I am talking about that. I agree your point applies to ownership.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#279

Post by seoaeu » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:58 PM UTC

zemo wrote: post #185

xyzelement wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In less than 3 years the rent in our working class city went up 45%. I sympathize with that but I want to make sure people understand the dynamics. Prices are driven by supply and demand. If there's only one empty apartment in the city and you're willing to pay $2000/month, I am gonna have to pay $2100 month if I want to live there instead of you. That's sort of separate (though related to) prices of houses. What w…

> one way to drive prices in your city down is to have some even that renders it undesirable (..., defund the police ...) there are so many problems with your post but the assumption that defunding the police is necessarily going to cause prices to collapse is probably the most obviously biased one. the idea that you should view housing as simply a matter of supply and demand and not consider any externalities is an…

You can't solve a housing shortage by charging landlords more taxes any more than you can solve a famine by charging farmers more taxes. If there aren't enough homes for everyone who wants to live in a city, then part of the solution has to be building more homes.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#280

Post by traceddd » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 5:01 PM UTC

BuckRogers wrote: post #272

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I'm a 39 year renter flush with cash from 15 years of a professional job while living in austerity for the entire time. Soliciting free advice. You sound bullish so I wanted to share five risks in the short term that have been on my mind lately: 1) Evictions now allowed in 43 states after a pandemic moratorium on them. My state allowed them October 3rd. Supply. 2) A China conflict at any point. Disruption. 3) Taxes g…

Personally I went through a lot of the same considerations and the indecision and flip flopping got quite tiring.

Eventually I just simplified things. Living in a property you own gives so much more for your money compared to what one could afford at the same level renting. And on a long enough timeline crashes have had minimal impact. Many of those disruptions would affect the financial markets too so unless you’re extremely conservative leaving the money in stocks is not very safe either. I’m not renting for another 5 to 15 years with a small place and a nosey landlord jacking up rent regularly. So I bought.