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University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

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Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#451
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. It's tit-for-tat. Moderate Democrats won't push back against the "community organizers" when they push highly questionable practices such as ballot harvesting or allowing ballots to be counted that arrive days after election day. Moderate Democrats also never pushed back on two decades of claims about election fraud and stolen elections from the likes of people like Terry McAuliffe and Stacey Abrams: https:/…

This is where truth and "truthiness" diverge, I suppose. "Two decades of claims about election fraud" shares character with "two decades of high rates of Stop-and-Frisk detainments of black New Yorkers." The rest of the world looks at the reasonable behavior of liberal election workers and would be reformers - no the "Moderate" Democrats, who as recently as last week were working to gerrymander one of their own party…

> That the Left has not always trusted the Right to make the "correct" decisions, but has always trusted them with the right to vote.

Packing the Supreme Court because you can't trust the justices appointed by the right to vote the right way?

That crazy plan to make a separate state out of each DC neighborhood, so that DC would have dozens of senators?

Yeah, they trust the right with the right to vote, as long as the left can finagle a way to outvote them. (Yes, I know, neither of those passed, nor has any likelihood of passing. Still, there's a profound distrust of democracy on the part of at least some of the left.)

> The Right has never trusted the Left with the right to vote.

That is so ridiculously wrong that it looks like you're just making stuff up to fit a totally slanted worldview. In particular, the word "never" is a dead giveaway.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, can we agree on a set of premises --- for instance, that "ballot harvesting" is not an idiosyncrasy of the Democratic party? It's an article of faith among conservatives that the Democratic Party is the party of voter fraud, but that's empirically untrue. When we agree on what the facts are, it should be straightforward for us to work out what good changes would be.

What does that have to do with ballot harvesting? I don’t think democrats are “the party of voter fraud.” I do think they overvalue activist rhetoric about voter access while undervaluing the importance of overt displays of trustworthiness in building trust in elections. The whole point of elections is so people who don’t trust each other can agree on the result, and ballot harvesting pretty much screams untrustworth…

I guess I'd ask why I should care about that particular wrinkle of vote casting. I took the time to go read up on state ballot harvesting laws, and there's essentially no apparent correlation between state parties and ballot collection laws. I learned that ballot collection is kind of a big deal for Native Americans (who rely on collectors for far-flung reservations, where otherwise getting to a sanctioned ballot box might involve a multiple-hour drive) and for elderly voters in assisted living homes. There seems to be no studied connection between lax collection laws and incidence of fraud.

Why do you care about this? I'm asking sincerely; I don't get it. I know about the Bladen County thing in NC (Bladen County was the subject of the last Serial podcast) --- again, that was Republican election fraud. But my reaction to that isn't that we should make it harder for people to cast ballots.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consider the Democratic party lock on the US southern states for roughly 50 years after reconstruction. Yet each party still controlled the government around half of the time, because the Republicans took the North. Each party will change the amount necessary to flip the marginal district. The districts in the South were harder for Republicans to flip than some others, so they took ones it was easier for them to ge…

> Yet each party still controlled the government around half of the time, because the Republicans took the North. That is not correct. Counting the House, the Senate, and the Presidency individually: Republicans had control of 52 time periods, compared to the Democrats 23. Based on a starting point & ending of the following: 44th (1875–1877) 45th (1877–1879) 46th (1879–1881) 47th (1881–1883) 48th (1883–1885) 49th (18…

Sure, elections aren't that frequent and then you get large variation because the sample size is small. Notice that your stopping point is just before FDR and Truman (both Democrats) held the Presidency for 20 years straight, which was still before the South stopped going for the Democrats.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with all of this is that it's complicated, people misstate things, and everybody is eager to prove that "their side" is right. So then you get excessive claims like "no state purges voter rolls" which is just easily falsifiable, and then it gets falsified and leads one side to believe that to be the end of it. Whereas what really happens is that a state goes to purge its voter rolls, they have a list of 1…

What you say is true, but at the same time there was a voter fraud commission started in 2017, formed with the explicit charter of investigating such claims. This commission was disbanded after they couldn’t make progress showing that “thousands and thousands” of people fraudulently voted in 2016, causing then President Trump to lose the national popular vote. He made very specific claims about people being bussed ar…

Let me see if I can try to make the case for the other side here.

> Did you get that? Trump loses Arizona, demands a recount, gets the recount, recount determines Trump did in fact lose, Trump claims exact opposite, and millions of people follow his lead and repeat this lie.

Here's the results of said audit:

https://www.azsenaterepublicans.com/cyber-ninjas-report

They found a lot of irregularities, e.g.:

> Official Canvass has 3,432 more ballots cast than the list of people who show as having cast a vote (VM55)

> 9,041 mail-in voters show returning more ballots (EV33) than they were sent (EV32).

> 277 Precincts show in the Official Canvass as having more ballots cast than people who showed up to vote (VM55) for a total of 1,551 excess votes.

> There are 2,472 ballots shown in EV33 that don’t have corresponding entries in the VM55, and only 2,042 ballots show as rejected in the Official Canvas for a discrepancy of 430.

> 397 mail-in ballots show as received (EV33) that never show as sent (EV32).

> 255,326 Early Votes show in the VM55 that do not have a corresponding EV33 entry.

The trouble with this is that you can find that the numbers don't add up, but then what? You don't know which ballots were the extra ones. All you can do is count them again and then you get the same count from before.

There was one category of irregularity where they could actually redo the count. Ballots that were in some way messed up get "duplicated," i.e. copied onto clean ones. But they still had both the originals and the duplicates. The counts didn't match, which is bad. They had more duplicates than originals. But they could redo them.

The assumption in doing this was that the "extra" duplicates should be discarded, rather than that some of the originals had been lost. Under that assumption, Trump lost a few hundred votes. Naturally this is the only part of the report of any significance to media outlets on the blue team.

Trump goes the other way. Declares that all of the remaining irregularities would have been votes in his favor.

There is apparently no way of proving it one way or the other at this point; the information is not available. We don't know which ballots were the "extra" ones in the other cases. Which means he can't prove it. Because nobody can prove it one way or the other. But something went wrong.

Having a number of unexplained irregularities that exceeds the margin of victory for the state is bad. "Undermines confidence in the election," as they say. If nothing else we need to make sure this doesn't happen again by figuring out how it happened this time and keeping better records going forward.

> The most telling instance if this in the last year was Rudy Giuliani refusing to make a claim of “fraud” in front of any judge after the 2020 election, but claiming “fraud” as often as he could in front of any TV camera.

This is why the media is such a trash fire.

After the election they were filing a zillion lawsuits all over the country. Some of them were alleging fraud. IIRC one in particular was about something like the state violating its state constitution, or violating election laws, something like that. So he says it on camera in court; that particular case wasn't about fraud. The media picks it up like he's made a confession of wrongdoing.

All of the coverage was like this. One side: Massive fraud unprecedented mountains of evidence! Other side: There is no fraud whatsoever stop looking immediately STFU!

As far as I can tell what actually happened was something like this.

Most elections are pretty messed up. There is some fraud here and there, and a vast sea of incompetence. The 2020 election was like that on meth, because of COVID.

Then it all mostly just cancels out. If each party commits a similar amount of fraud, and the effects of incompetence are random, it doesn't change the outcome. Also, most elections aren't close enough for it to matter.

Then Trump figured out you can challenge individual districts. If you go into a district that went 80% for Biden and find all of the problems that actually did happen there, you might invalidate enough ballots to matter, and probably the same 80% of them went for Biden.

This is kind of a dick move, but in theory it's a valid thing to do and the response from the other side should be to go into a district that went 80% for Trump and find all the problems there. Then if the problems cancel out it doesn't change the outcome and all you're doing is excluding all the ballots that actually ought to be excluded.

In practice there are two reasons Democrats didn't want to do that. First, it would have taken a long time and they wanted to be able to declare victory. This isn't really a legitimate reason but you can see why they would want to do this.

Second, mail-in ballots. If a higher percentage of mail-in ballots were messed up than in-person ballots, and more of the mail-in ballots went for Biden, uh oh. You don't know that's going to happen before you look, but it could, so do you really want to look?

So then it's a media war. Trump sucks. He's making a zillion fraud claims and most of them are crap because he's just throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. But if they just let him, something might stick. Maybe not, but "maybe" is a big risk. So the other side decides that they want to suck too. If a report comes out, it's bad for Trump. It doesn't matter what it says; strip out anything that helps him, remove all context, find some excerpt that sounds like it's bad for him, whatever it takes.

Then everybody is doing the Big Lie. Mischaracterizing everything the other says, acting as political operatives instead of journalists. It's not the truth vs. the lie; everybody's lying. The other side is evil. They must be stopped.

Come on. The other side is the guy sitting next to you on the subway.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately, it is almost always the fault of Democrats- whether it is fake electoral fraud allegations, gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement. Stacey Abrams and fauci are the true villains here. /s Btw, electoral fraud via voter disenfranchisement is a well established reality. Voter disenfranchisement has been a Republican tactic for decades that Democrats are finally fighting against. Yes, this is fraud - whi…

Your partisan colors are showing. Strong election processes and voting processes can go both ways.

> Your partisan colors are showing

Is this the best counter argument to support voter disenfranchisement that you were able to come up with?

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the State of Florida isn't protecting voting rights , your words. It is attacking voting rights. For example, Florida passed Amendment 4 in 2018 which returned the voting rights of most felons after they'd served their sentences. This amendment restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not app…

I think you are making biased comments. There are good arguments both for, and against tightening, or loosening up a number of processes around voting. Currently in the US, most voting processes are significantly weaker than processes around getting a driver's license, purchasing alcohol, or buying a gun. This encourages participation at the cost of security. On the other hand, having to be at a certain place in a sp…

Its basic data science to identify what kind of errors the current system introduces. Is it Type 1 errors or type 2 errors.

Type 1 = right people not being able to vote

Type 2 = wrong people voting

The US has massive type 1 errors by far. So far I have only seen one instance of Type 2 error - a Republican voting twice. When I see people pounding on reducing non existent type 2 errors I have to question their intent.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last major story about ballot harvesting was a conviction for a Republican operative doing it in North Carolina.

Great. We can get behind it being a bad thing, right?

There is a basic data science question here. What kind of data errors exist in the US system.

Precision error = invalid voter voting

Recall error = valid voter unable to vote

You can look up detailed definitions on wikipedia.

US is plagued by recall errors. Like tptacek pointed out miniscule precision errors identified so far are by Republicans. The errors trade off with each other. Reducing precision errors will increase recall errors and vice versa.

When someone makes a song and dance about virtually non existent precision errors and tries to worsen recall errors - the intent is not to reduce the errors, but increase it to subvert the democratic process.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should the region/counties that have a smaller population but different work forces or geographical makeup not have representation? Population alone cannot dictate the house of representatives.

Why should empty land get a vote? Why should the majority of the populace be beholden to an even-dwindling minority?

It's required for keeping the country intact. All the low population states would leave if they had no say at the federal level.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#459

For the lawyers: Can't a lawyer wishing to have these professors testify as expert witnesses merely motion for them to be subpoenaed? As far as I know, then by law the expert witnesses must testify else risk contempt of court, thereby negating whatever "bar" that the university seems fit to impose.

> Can't a lawyer wishing to have these professors testify as expert witnesses merely motion for them to be subpoenaed? That depends on the law of the jurisdiction in question; in the US federal system, for instance this is theoretically possible but its kind of a hail mary, rather than a slam dunk; getting an order for s non-retained expert is far from automatic, even when their testimony would be relevant: https://w…

Thanks for the link. For those curious, this seems to be the relevant section:

Differing Requirements for Expert and Non-Retained Witnesses While non-retained witnesses require some disclosure, expert witnesses require far more. It may be challenging to compel an expert witness to testify, in part, because before an expert witness is deposed or testifies, the federal rules require the disclosure of a report. Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 26 (a) (2) (B) calls for the disclosure of a report including:

* A complete statement of all the opinions a witness plans to express, as well as the basis for the opinions, and the reasons supporting the opinions

* The facts or data relied on or considered when forming the opinion

* Exhibits the expert will use to support or summarize their findings

* Their qualifications and the last 10 years of their publications

* All other cases the witness testified as an expert, whether in trial or deposition

* A statement of compensation the expert has been or will be paid for the study and testimony in the case at hand

Obviously, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to obtain this information in a report from a non-compensated, unretained expert.

Re: University of Florida bars professors from testifying in a voting rights case

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s possible for UF to have a nuanced position and still be in the wrong. Do you believe the purpose of the article was to inform you of the nuances on both sides and let you make an informed judgement for yourself?

> Do you believe the purpose of the article was to inform you of the nuances on both sides and let you make an informed judgement for yourself? I hope not. We tried that with journalism and wound up with endless views from nowhere. It was barely better than when journalists parrot Gov/Biz/LEO press releases w/o vetting the content (which is done all the time). edit: I'll append to note that NPR's 2008 election covera…

The only thing that bothers me is pretending to not be activists. If you wear your activism loud and proud then the more the merrier.
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