Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think the financial system of the 70s is the same financial system of the 2000s. We were were also pouring a lot of resources into countering the 'second world' including the Vietnam war, missile defence, etc. add to that the 'oil shock.' As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. You, know, where they'd have to 'deva…
> As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. This is simply untrue. Like not even close the definition of hyperinflation used by economists. Hyperinflation is a monthly inflation rate of 50%, or 12974.63% annually. This is scare tactics.
US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
111–120 of 190 posts
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#112Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think the financial system of the 70s is the same financial system of the 2000s. We were were also pouring a lot of resources into countering the 'second world' including the Vietnam war, missile defence, etc. add to that the 'oil shock.' As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. You, know, where they'd have to 'deva…
> As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. This is simply untrue. Like not even close the definition of hyperinflation used by economists. Hyperinflation is a monthly inflation rate of 50%, or 12974.63% annually. This is scare tactics.
High inflation is what we had during the Carter years. People who lived though it say it was awful. Five per-cent may be on the cusp, but 8% is getting up there where it eats up a wage earner's buying power.
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#114This doesn't mean what people think it means. They adjust the inflation rate every 6 months https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds... . Right now it yields 7.12% because the last inflation number was really high, but once inflation goes back to normal, the yield will be much lower.
> but once inflation goes back to normal you mean, once the "inflation number" goes back to normal. Inflation (supply of money) has been high [0] for literally decades. It won't get lower for a long time. It may never EVER go "back to normal." Normal would put us in a very bad macroeconomic position relative to all other nations. Why would we, the purveyor of the Petrodollar, do that? [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/…
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#115I bought one in the early 2000's, should be getting about 10% on it. The trouble with these is that the fixed rate has been 0% for some time now. If inflation does go down you could end up with a very low yielding bond. I forget what exactly it equates to on a yearly interest basis but series E bonds don't really pay squat until they hit the 20 year mark, at which time they are guaranteed to double. I wish when I was…
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cite for that? No one with any expertise has predicted a >7% inflation level that I'm aware of. This sounds like something you got from talk radio. (Edit: two replies have taken this out of context. Savings bonds have a minimum term of five years (well, without penalty). For them to have a negative yield, we need to see aggregate inflation >7.12% over the next five years. That's nuts, sorry. No one is predicting that…
Telling that your comment is starting to gray out but I have a degree in economics and I don't listen to talk radio Housing inflation has averaged 14% to start. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/runaway-us-home-price-rises...
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#117I'm kind of an idiot with anything terribly elaborate in the financial world, so forgive a bit of a dumb question: what are the downsides to bonds instead of using something like a CD?
Bonds are not guaranteed like CDs. Bonds can fail. You could lose your investment. Even though they are a lot more safer than stocks, but they are still a risky investment compared to CDs.
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#118The fixed rate is 0% as has been the case. The inflation yield rate has been bouncy. This doesn’t seem as good as the title and comments are making it seem unless things stay this way. Table near bottom of page shows the inflation rate over time. Edit: I agree this could be a sign of something long term Edit: recent history of rates -- Inflation rates -- Nov 2021 3.56% May 2021 1.77% Nov 2020 0.84% May 2020 0.53% Nov…
> This doesn’t seem as good as the title and comments are making it seem unless things stay this way . Table near bottom of page shows the inflation rate over time. I wouldn't purchase these bonds for a number of reasons, but I do think it's worth noting that the case for today's inflation being something more than "transitory" is stronger than the case for today's inflation being "transitory". Trying to navigate the…
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
We would not be "in the Cater [sic] Years" regardless. The lowest inflation reported in the late 70's was about 5%, with a peak at 15%. Last year's post-covid number was 5.4%. Your point seems mostly like demagoguery. I think the more interesting question is... is 5% actually bad? There's a real argument to be had here that rapid inflation reflects genuine improvements like rising wage levels and that it's worth payi…
"Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors ..." The biggest losers among sophisticated, moneyed actors are indeed people who hold assets. But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices.
And therein lies one of the big pseudo-centrist points here. A mild reduction[1] in fixed-rate entitlement programs is coming down the pipe at some point regardless. This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" (or at least in a cheaper way, since you can blame covid).
[1] Contra the nutjobs who predict the Death of Social Security or whatnot.
Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
What stops you selling them to someone else?
I bonds in particular are closer to a CD and are not transferable. If you have access to credit, you could borrow and pay it back once your I bond matures is cashable. Other Treasury notes can be sold, though if rates go up you may get back less than your principal, particularly on the longer duration notes.