Live data from Hacker News

US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

treasurydirect.gov

111–120 of 190 posts

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#111
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the financial system of the 70s is the same financial system of the 2000s. We were were also pouring a lot of resources into countering the 'second world' including the Vietnam war, missile defence, etc. add to that the 'oil shock.' As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. You, know, where they'd have to 'deva…

> As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. This is simply untrue. Like not even close the definition of hyperinflation used by economists. Hyperinflation is a monthly inflation rate of 50%, or 12974.63% annually. This is scare tactics.

[deleted]

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#113
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the financial system of the 70s is the same financial system of the 2000s. We were were also pouring a lot of resources into countering the 'second world' including the Vietnam war, missile defence, etc. add to that the 'oil shock.' As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. You, know, where they'd have to 'deva…

> As far as I can recall, the current system is 'calibrated' for 2-3% annual growth. 5-8% is entering the banana republic inflation zone. This is simply untrue. Like not even close the definition of hyperinflation used by economists. Hyperinflation is a monthly inflation rate of 50%, or 12974.63% annually. This is scare tactics.

Hyperinflation is Zimbabwe or Brazil during some periods. That's not what I'm comparing it to.

High inflation is what we had during the Carter years. People who lived though it say it was awful. Five per-cent may be on the cusp, but 8% is getting up there where it eats up a wage earner's buying power.

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#114

This doesn't mean what people think it means. They adjust the inflation rate every 6 months https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds... . Right now it yields 7.12% because the last inflation number was really high, but once inflation goes back to normal, the yield will be much lower.

> but once inflation goes back to normal you mean, once the "inflation number" goes back to normal. Inflation (supply of money) has been high [0] for literally decades. It won't get lower for a long time. It may never EVER go "back to normal." Normal would put us in a very bad macroeconomic position relative to all other nations. Why would we, the purveyor of the Petrodollar, do that? [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/…

I find it useful to refer to "price inflation", "monetary inflation", and "asset inflation" to distinguish between them all. Monetary inflation may or may not create asset inflation and or price inflation depending where it flows.

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#115

I bought one in the early 2000's, should be getting about 10% on it. The trouble with these is that the fixed rate has been 0% for some time now. If inflation does go down you could end up with a very low yielding bond. I forget what exactly it equates to on a yearly interest basis but series E bonds don't really pay squat until they hit the 20 year mark, at which time they are guaranteed to double. I wish when I was…

E bonds are guaranteed to double in value at 20 years, for a nominal (not inflation adjusted) ~3.5% return. They yield almost nothing before the 20 year term.

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#116
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cite for that? No one with any expertise has predicted a >7% inflation level that I'm aware of. This sounds like something you got from talk radio. (Edit: two replies have taken this out of context. Savings bonds have a minimum term of five years (well, without penalty). For them to have a negative yield, we need to see aggregate inflation >7.12% over the next five years. That's nuts, sorry. No one is predicting that…

Telling that your comment is starting to gray out but I have a degree in economics and I don't listen to talk radio Housing inflation has averaged 14% to start. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/runaway-us-home-price-rises...

Great, then surely you can cite me the source you used to predict that general inflation (not, ahem, some cherry picked real estate numbers) would be higher than 7% over the life of this bond, producing the negative interest you were teasing?

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#117
post #3

I'm kind of an idiot with anything terribly elaborate in the financial world, so forgive a bit of a dumb question: what are the downsides to bonds instead of using something like a CD?

Bonds are not guaranteed like CDs. Bonds can fail. You could lose your investment. Even though they are a lot more safer than stocks, but they are still a risky investment compared to CDs.

Not really relevant for Treasury bonds. They’ve guaranteed with the full faith and credit of USG. If that fails, FDIC already failed.

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#118

The fixed rate is 0% as has been the case. The inflation yield rate has been bouncy. This doesn’t seem as good as the title and comments are making it seem unless things stay this way. Table near bottom of page shows the inflation rate over time. Edit: I agree this could be a sign of something long term Edit: recent history of rates -- Inflation rates -- Nov 2021 3.56% May 2021 1.77% Nov 2020 0.84% May 2020 0.53% Nov…

> This doesn’t seem as good as the title and comments are making it seem unless things stay this way . Table near bottom of page shows the inflation rate over time. I wouldn't purchase these bonds for a number of reasons, but I do think it's worth noting that the case for today's inflation being something more than "transitory" is stronger than the case for today's inflation being "transitory". Trying to navigate the…

I certainly wouldn’t put all my money into these bonds. But as an inflation hedge, it seems fine to toss in $10k per year (which is the maximum a person can easily buy anyway).

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#119
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We would not be "in the Cater [sic] Years" regardless. The lowest inflation reported in the late 70's was about 5%, with a peak at 15%. Last year's post-covid number was 5.4%. Your point seems mostly like demagoguery. I think the more interesting question is... is 5% actually bad? There's a real argument to be had here that rapid inflation reflects genuine improvements like rising wage levels and that it's worth payi…

"Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors ..." The biggest losers among sophisticated, moneyed actors are indeed people who hold assets. But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices.

> But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices.

And therein lies one of the big pseudo-centrist points here. A mild reduction[1] in fixed-rate entitlement programs is coming down the pipe at some point regardless. This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" (or at least in a cheaper way, since you can blame covid).

[1] Contra the nutjobs who predict the Death of Social Security or whatnot.

Re: US Series I Savings Bonds Now Yielding 7.12%

#120
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What stops you selling them to someone else?

I bonds in particular are closer to a CD and are not transferable. If you have access to credit, you could borrow and pay it back once your I bond matures is cashable. Other Treasury notes can be sold, though if rates go up you may get back less than your principal, particularly on the longer duration notes.

[deleted]
Post reply on HN