Global Green Up Slows Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#31

Post by scarygliders » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 2:53 PM UTC

jiggyjace wrote: post #20

scarygliders wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity Couple of questions because I'm curious... What percentage of the 0.04% CO2 in Earth's atmosphere do humans contribute? Has it yet been absolutely proven 100% that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main culprit/control knob which controls climate(s) around the Earth?

I think it was around 1 gigaton of CO2 caused by humans for every 40 gigatons of CO2 caused naturally, which is about 2.5% of total CO2 emissions every year.

Thanks, so that's 2.5% of 0.04%, right?

Has it been proven that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main factor which affects Earth's climate(s)?

I'm asking, because 0.04% of something seems like a particularly small fraction to have such a dramatic effect on a whole planet's weather and climate. Especially in a non-linear dynamic and chaotic - hence very difficult to predict - system like Earth's weather and climate system.

In my opinion it is important to ask these questions because some extremely huge decisions ride on them.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#32

Post by diego_moita » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 2:54 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #12

boringg wrote: post #4

The key line for those who don't read the article: "Scientists say that global greening since the early 1980s may have reduced global warming by as much as 0.2° to 0.25° Celsius (0.36° to 0.45° Fahrenheit). In other words, the world would be even warmer than it is if not for the surge in plant growth." The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Q…

>increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity Couple of questions because I'm curious... What percentage of the 0.04% CO2 in Earth's atmosphere do humans contribute? Has it yet been absolutely proven 100% that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main culprit/control knob which controls climate(s) around the Earth?

> Has it yet been absolutely proven 100% that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main culprit/control knob which controls climate(s) around the Earth?

Yes and no. It has been proven (for more than 200 years) that CO2 increases heat retention, even when present in small amounts.

It has also been proven that CO2 is not the only one doing that (methane has an effect even far greater than CO2, for the same amount).

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#33

Post by 3pt14159 » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 2:54 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #24

Joeri wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IPCC reports describe the answers to those questions very thoroughly, no point in rehashing that here.

Does the IPCC conclusively prove with 100% certainty that the fraction of the 0.04% of CO2 comprising Earth's atmosphere humans contribute is the main thing which affects the Earth's climate(s)?

Yes. It's settled science. CO2 is not the only gas that matters, but it's the major one and most of the feedback loops are not in our favour. Read some of the technical reports, they're not that hard to understand.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#34

Post by goohle » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #12

boringg wrote: post #4

The key line for those who don't read the article: "Scientists say that global greening since the early 1980s may have reduced global warming by as much as 0.2° to 0.25° Celsius (0.36° to 0.45° Fahrenheit). In other words, the world would be even warmer than it is if not for the surge in plant growth." The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Q…

>increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity Couple of questions because I'm curious... What percentage of the 0.04% CO2 in Earth's atmosphere do humans contribute? Has it yet been absolutely proven 100% that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main culprit/control knob which controls climate(s) around the Earth?

1) 0.024%

2) 100% of what?

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#35

Post by ajnin » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC

nashashmi wrote: post #21

If the CO2 levels stay this high for the next 100 years (and no new excess emissions are generated) we will be having excess food growth and plant growth and wildlife growth for many decades. This is a win. It might counter the narrative for emissions control, but if also tells us that the medicine is in our system.

CO2 levels are not the only factor that is beneficial to plant growth, you also need sunlight and water, and nutrients, and other things, it's hard to predict what regions of the Earth will have favorable conditions in the future and if crops will profit or not from this.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#36

Post by dr_dshiv » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 3:04 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #31

jiggyjace wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it was around 1 gigaton of CO2 caused by humans for every 40 gigatons of CO2 caused naturally, which is about 2.5% of total CO2 emissions every year.

Thanks, so that's 2.5% of 0.04%, right? Has it been proven that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main factor which affects Earth's climate(s)? I'm asking, because 0.04% of something seems like a particularly small fraction to have such a dramatic effect on a whole planet's weather and climate. Especially in a non-linear dynamic and chaotic - hence very difficult to predict - system like Earth's wea…

Water vapor is the #1 greenhouse gas but that is a closed system. We aren’t making (much) more water.

Now, we could potentially make many more clouds. For instance, container ships could be required to have fuel additives or “salt lofters”that promote cloud seeding and marine cloud brightening.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#37

Post by TeMPOraL » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 3:04 PM UTC

citilife wrote: post #29

boringg wrote: post #4

The key line for those who don't read the article: "Scientists say that global greening since the early 1980s may have reduced global warming by as much as 0.2° to 0.25° Celsius (0.36° to 0.45° Fahrenheit). In other words, the world would be even warmer than it is if not for the surge in plant growth." The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Q…

> The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Quirky systems we have on the planet. That's not quirky, it's why global warming is less of a risk than people care to admit. If CO2 is the primary cause of global warming then organisms that need / utilize CO2 will flourish. A byproduct of this is often oxygen, so it'll likely stabilize itself given e…

This is like saying "my car burns gasoline, so more gasoline in the engine is better".

There's only so much CO2 organisms can absorb, and they all buffer it - not consume it. Meanwhile, we're still adding CO2 at an exponential rate.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#38

Post by MauranKilom » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 3:05 PM UTC

citilife wrote: post #29

boringg wrote: post #4

The key line for those who don't read the article: "Scientists say that global greening since the early 1980s may have reduced global warming by as much as 0.2° to 0.25° Celsius (0.36° to 0.45° Fahrenheit). In other words, the world would be even warmer than it is if not for the surge in plant growth." The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Q…

> The surge in plant growth is a result of increased amount of CO2 in the air as a result of anthropogenic activity. Quirky systems we have on the planet. That's not quirky, it's why global warming is less of a risk than people care to admit. If CO2 is the primary cause of global warming then organisms that need / utilize CO2 will flourish. A byproduct of this is often oxygen, so it'll likely stabilize itself given e…

> it'll likely stabilize itself given enough time.

Is there more to this argument? Because it could well stabilize at "palm trees at the poles". Or it might never stabilize because of ever-increasing CO2 production (compared to sequestration).

"There could be an equilibrium" really isn't an argument imo.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#39

Post by orangeoxidation » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 3:07 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #24

Joeri wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IPCC reports describe the answers to those questions very thoroughly, no point in rehashing that here.

Does the IPCC conclusively prove with 100% certainty that the fraction of the 0.04% of CO2 comprising Earth's atmosphere humans contribute is the main thing which affects the Earth's climate(s)?

> is the main thing which affects the Earth's climate

Yes. Though that sounds like weasel words, the word change is missing.

It was 100% proven that human contribution is the main and most important culprit of (the current) climate change. Also that human released CO2 is the most important mechanism.

Re: Global Green Up Slows Warming

#40

Post by ajnin » Mon, Nov 01, 2021, 3:08 PM UTC

scarygliders wrote: post #31

jiggyjace wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it was around 1 gigaton of CO2 caused by humans for every 40 gigatons of CO2 caused naturally, which is about 2.5% of total CO2 emissions every year.

Thanks, so that's 2.5% of 0.04%, right? Has it been proven that a gas comprising 0.04% of Earth's atmosphere is the main factor which affects Earth's climate(s)? I'm asking, because 0.04% of something seems like a particularly small fraction to have such a dramatic effect on a whole planet's weather and climate. Especially in a non-linear dynamic and chaotic - hence very difficult to predict - system like Earth's wea…

Natural emissions are balanced by natural sinks, so that the balance is close to zero, while human emissions are not balanced by anything. The actual variation of CO2 levels in the atmosphere is almost exclusively due to human emissions tipping the equilibrium.

The effect of CO2 on the climate is old science, it goes back to the 19th century, it seems a little bit insincere to ask this kind of question, if you had actual interest you would have found the answer very easily already.