Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious. • Hacker News Board

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#151

Post by true_religion » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:01 PM UTC

jonnathanson wrote: post #140

Meai wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You come up with only a single, high level reason for what could have thousands of reasons, and you seriously come up with one that is a detriment to our entire species. Draw from that conclusions on your capacity and will for logical thinking, sorry this has to be blunt. You are the modern day crusader. You get an idea in your head with next to no logical reasons and then start to proselytize everyone around you. I'…

"there are no marriages, because marriages are nowadays too fast and detrimental for male parties. What we need, is actual equality between the genders." I'm not sure I follow this logic. By all indications in both the East and West, it's women, not men, who are driving the changes in marriage rates, ages, and trends. 1) Women are entering and succeeding in the workforce, and accordingly, they see less reason to give…

> Unfortunately, they can't wait too long, because eventually, they'll lose out to younger women entering the same market

Consider this scenario: a man seeking marriage is likely to continue seeking it through his old age (e.g. doesn't become an eternal bachelor or celibate).

In this case, a woman of that same old age is likely to marry someone young because they can provide for their young husband materially, and from the young mans' point of view marrying an older woman is a good chance for marriage in a market where older men are using their own value to attract younger women.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#152

Post by cosgroveb » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:03 PM UTC

mattchew wrote: post #142

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

As another poster remarked, strong nations adopting a warlike attitude to preserve their vigor is probably not going to work out well in a world full of nukes and bioweapons. If that becomes a popular approach, we're all dead. It's an interesting claim. I don't think I buy it--the U.S. is entering our period of decline right now, and our belligerence is, if anything, accelerating that--but maybe you'll make a longer…

Also see Athen's bellicose behavior wrt its "empire" (the Delian league) which lead directly to its decline and eventual defeat in the Peloponnesian War. Or Rome is the fourth century. Or many other ancient examples...

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#153

Post by cosgroveb » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:12 PM UTC

icebraining wrote: post #134

csomar wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tunisia is self-destructing, has one of the world highest divorce rate, slow birth rate that will make it disappear if not solved early, more than 10% of the population working/living abroad, and enough social/life mess that I/my friends want to somehow leave the country and live in another place. Yet, we did no wars, made no commercial/art explosion (even food we don't produce). It's not about wars, allies or anythi…

>- Values: That's why religion works, it keeps values deep inside and transmit them from a generation to another. More people have died on armed conflicts in the name of religion than for any other reason. National Socialism, for example, is a drop in the bucket compared to it. In the 'States, non-religious people are much less likely to be in jail. Religion is great at transmitting values, no doubt, but it's usually…

Let's not turn this into an atheism circle-jerk. I really don't come to Hacker News for this...

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#154

Post by lionhearted » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:15 PM UTC

moe wrote: post #113

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

Yes, we all dream up these world-formulas in the bathtub. Without going deeper into your "analysis" I assure you that there is no single, unifying causality to the effects you describe. I also assure you that my country (germany) has a really bad track-record of listening to guys with "easy answers" whose arguments started out strikingly similar to yours.

> I also assure you that my country (germany) has a really bad track-record of listening to guys with "easy answers" whose arguments started out strikingly similar to yours.

Right. That's the whole point - there will be beligerent nations, and pacifist nations will get rolled by them unless they've got a strong ally to bail them out.

It was the militant nations (USA, Britain, Russia) that bailed out the appeasement/pacifist nations from Nazi conquest and rule.

No easy answers, indeed!

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#155

Post by true_religion » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:16 PM UTC

sliverstorm wrote: post #74

JeffL wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, what's China going to do as we print our way out of our debt to them? If they get bellicose, then our nukes will come in handy. If they sit there and take what will essentially be a default on our debt via printing, then will be be conquered by them economically?

What will happen is no other country will invest in us again, and considering our addiction to debt, we will run into some... problems. Heck, if we inflate our currency aggressively enough, other countries could wind up simply not accepting our money . It's hard to imagine today, but it's a real possibility- the value and purchasing power of your money is entirely rooted in everyone else's confidence in it's stabilit…

> What will happen is no other country will invest in us again

Again? Over what time period?

I think an investment ban, even one widely hailed as a good thing would fall apart within 30 years of its inception.

Governments change, companies rise and fall, and people die. After a while, others would be looking at America and asking "hmmm why don't we invest in those guys, they're a whole different generation different from their parents".

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#156

Post by brazzy » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:19 PM UTC

llambda wrote: post #111

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

Japan cannot re-militarize. It's constitutionally impossible. Even if they could I think there's more going on here. There's a lot of underlying conflict in Japanese culture that isn't immediately visible. This kind of conflict spans thousands of years of cultural history; the cultural thing to do is to hide your true feelings in the name of harmonious relationships[1]. But the outcome doesn't seem to be that conflic…

Actually the reason why Japan cannot re-militarize is that it already has done so decades ago. Its military may be called "self defence forces" rather than "armed forces", but it really is a well-funded army of moderate size (6th highest military expenditures in the world).

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#157

Post by gbog » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:24 PM UTC

lionhearted wrote: post #148

vacri wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is patent nonsense. Every society has its day in the sun, military or not, and then collapses. The US is doing this as we speak - despite having the most powerful military the world has ever known, and almost spending more on its military than the rest of the world combined. It's been far from peaceful in the timeframe that Europe and Japan have been (several official wars, quite a number of unofficial ones). Fa…

> I'm wondering if you're just trolling - "studied a lot of history" and then saying "exceedingly good relations with China" combined with "japan remilitarises". I don't think you've read enough history there... I tried writing up all the credentials I have that make me have a clear understanding here, but I don't know how to do it without looking snarky. But anyways, today I'm in Beijing, yesterday I was in Hong Kon…

How does your theory fit with the enormous counter example you have under the eyes? i mean, China has been peaceful for centuries, underarmed, and did not collapse, or did we learn a different history?

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#158

Post by onan_barbarian » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:26 PM UTC

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

This is a appealing theory, marred only by the fact that it is appears to be gibberish.

At the very least, it's an extraordinary claim and makes no reference to the anything not more easily explained by the oft-noted equation between low GBP and high fertility - for example, seen here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TFR_vs_PPP_2009.svg

If you can furnish a concrete series of examples of countries at a similar economic stage, where the sole difference is warlike behavior, and connect this to fertility, more power to you.

But frankly, I think you're just making stuff up.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#159

Post by lionhearted » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:36 PM UTC

onan_barbarian wrote: post #158

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

This is a appealing theory, marred only by the fact that it is appears to be gibberish. At the very least, it's an extraordinary claim and makes no reference to the anything not more easily explained by the oft-noted equation between low GBP and high fertility - for example, seen here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TFR_vs_PPP_2009.svg If you can furnish a concrete series of examples of countries at a similar econ…

> This is a appealing theory, marred only by the fact that it is appears to be gibberish.

Man, it's very possible to be skeptical without the asshole tone. It's a common theme in your comments, but it's really unnecessary.

Anyways. It's a good point, regardless of tone. Where'd my analysis come from?

I've noted that:

-You see baby booms frequently after the conclusion of war, increasing fertility.

-As nations age and move towards pacifism, you seem to have a cycle of more luxury goods being produced and less trade/usable goods. EG, more Burberry and less fighter planes, which means more status/positional goods and less things that can be technologically built on.

This has been noted at various times in history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Gibbon

It's also something I've seen and felt in being in lots of countries. That's entirely subjective, but the urge to "live quickly" seems higher in places that where people face their mortality. Mongolia made a notable impression on me, and their fertility is very high (and they have a high general militant disposition, as well).

> If you can furnish a concrete series of examples of countries at a similar economic stage, where the sole difference is warlike behavior, and connect this to fertility, more power to you. But frankly, I think you're just making stuff up.

1. That's a PhD thesis amount of work, or at least a long many-page discussion on a history forum, not a quick comment on Hacker News. Asking the other person you're talking to provide PhD amounts of evidence is asinine. C'mon dude, seriously.

2. You can be skeptical and intelligently asking questions without the asshole tone. I don't mean just to me - go review your own comment history. You're obviously a smart guy, you can ask questions without the haughty manner and you'll probably be better off for it.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#160

Post by neutronicus » Sat, Aug 20, 2011, 2:39 PM UTC

gbog wrote: post #157

lionhearted wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm wondering if you're just trolling - "studied a lot of history" and then saying "exceedingly good relations with China" combined with "japan remilitarises". I don't think you've read enough history there... I tried writing up all the credentials I have that make me have a clear understanding here, but I don't know how to do it without looking snarky. But anyways, today I'm in Beijing, yesterday I was in Hong Kon…

How does your theory fit with the enormous counter example you have under the eyes? i mean, China has been peaceful for centuries, underarmed, and did not collapse, or did we learn a different history?

China fought a war with Japan from 1930-1944, concurrent with and followed by its own civil war. Not to mention its involvement in Korea and Vietnam. Not exactly centuries.