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Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

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Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#41

Post by usui »

arminiusreturns wrote: post #23

It all cumulates eventually into a race to singularity, which is a zero sum game. Whoever gets there first wins. I promise to make mine mostly benevolent. I think emp warfare (actually already quietly a thing) is going to be the in between for stuff like drones... I hope the new generations of children are being taught old school survival skills, because they are probably going to need them. One of the best books on…

I don't think a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power makes sense.

At some point, some group is going to need to have a monopoly on violence. It doesn't matter if two groups of power don't have complete dominance over a geographic region, they are still two groups with power that look after their own kind and perform diplomacy.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#42

Post by FromHoiPolloi »

remarkEon wrote: post #14
enzino wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial.…

What. The US spent 20 years fighting goat herders with AK-47s, and lost. The CCCP did the same and also lost, albeit they left actually left when they realized is was a mess (with a little help from CIA, sure). There are other obvious examples. Economic might is a major determinant in how well you can prosecute a war but it is by no means the only thing that matters.

The vast majority of wars have been won by the party with stronger economy. There are of course exceptions. Especially when the theater of operation is on the other side of the globe (i.e. 1776)

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#43

Post by FromHoiPolloi »

enzino wrote: post #11
bpodgursky wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if 90% of military tech is fake (and I think "fake" more usually means "we think it works, but turns out it doesn't"), the other 10% can completely tip the scales in a war, to disastrous effect (to the loser). History has a lot of examples of technology which seemed preposterous until it completely turned the tides of battles or wars (radar, tanks, mustard gas, atomic bombs...) Drone warfare is pretty clearly in…

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial.…

The USSR was perfectly capable of wrecking havoc on itself without the fed. While the Soviet evacuation of it's industry to the east was impressive one must not forget the massive aid the USSR received from the western allies.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#44

Post by DiggyJohnson »

nradov wrote: post #39
wolverine876 wrote: post #16

> Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in a sample of pre-industrial societies world-wide covering almost 10,000 years of history using Seshat: Global History Databank. Does anyone here know about that Seshat Databank? It looks fascinating, and I ran into it someplace else too. What is its scope? Who actually uses it and for what?

You can just read their own description. http://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-us/

Re: Lazy Saturday Accommodations:

About Us Seshat: Global History Databank is a large, international, multidisciplinary team of evolutionary scientists, historians, anthropologists, archaeologists, economists, and other social scientists. Our team includes scholars from various backgrounds, policy makers, and enthusiastic volunteers. Seshat is governed by an editorial board, who oversee work done by postdoctoral researchers, collaborators and consultants, and research assistants all over the world. We are a nonprofit organization housed by the innovative Think-Tank the Evolution Institute. Our mission is to gather information from historical societies in order to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.

The Seshat: Global History Databank is an umbrella organization for numerous research projects that examine different facets or themes of human life. Each project is headed by various members of the Seshat Team along with a group of consultants and contributing experts. Support for our research comes from a variety of private donors, academic, and governmental funding sources. The Seshat (project) Wikipedia page provides some additional information about how the project is organized and funded.

We also rely on the efforts of our team of Research Assistants and Volunteers — see how you can get involved in this exciting organization!

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#45

Post by User23 »

s5300 wrote: post #33
User23 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US “cannon fodder” comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world. To this day the US federal government actively supports civilian marksmanship. It was entertaining seeing how the CIA taught the 2021 Taliban proper trigger discipline compared to the fingers resting on the trigger of a machine gun photos of the early 2000s. Shades of Kipling there.

Do you know what the Army Commendation medal is? To my knowledge, it's mostly something that is given after your first deployment/duty, fairly common but you have to have done something meaningful. A friend of mine got his commendation medal in what I believe was Basic training (and this was just national guard), or training slightly after basic. This, from his understanding at the time, was fairly uncommon/unheard o…

> So, while you may perceive "comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world" to be true, I somewhat disagree on its merits and propose that if the Taliban infantry are indeed goat herders, they may have more hands on experience in properly using firearms, as animal husbandry in areas like Afghanistan has some livestock preditors they must be wary about.

Your point is well taken, and I don’t know when your anecdote is from, but rural Americans definitely use guns as an agricultural tool. Hunting season laws don’t apply to wildlife that’s damaging crops or worrying livestock. In my neck of the woods everyone knows how to zero their rifle, because one shot is the most you’re going to get.

I don’t mean to say Americans are neo-Spartans or anything, just that I’m willing to bet the average Ame

> I have however heard reports from the tales of General Butt Naked & Co, that down in West Africa and such, that the child soldiers know nothing other than the idea of "big number equal good"

I heard that anecdote applied to the Bush War.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#46

Post by roenxi »

enzino wrote: post #11
bpodgursky wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if 90% of military tech is fake (and I think "fake" more usually means "we think it works, but turns out it doesn't"), the other 10% can completely tip the scales in a war, to disastrous effect (to the loser). History has a lot of examples of technology which seemed preposterous until it completely turned the tides of battles or wars (radar, tanks, mustard gas, atomic bombs...) Drone warfare is pretty clearly in…

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial.…

> wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy.

That isn't in conflict with what bpodgursky said - the country with the larger economy can iterate through technologies more quickly. If their opponents come up with an idea, a highly productive nation can copy and mass produce it. If they come up with an idea, their opponents may not have the industrial base to replicate it.

Although I do agree that based on the economy heuristic I'd expect China to do really well in any war. They're probably going to be better at drones than their opponents in a sustained conflict and it looks like drones win wars right now.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#47

Post by User23 »

s5300 wrote: post #36
enzino wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's sad to hear that the neo-marxist lowering of educational standards is also happening in the military. Our faith rests with the self-regulated militia.

I don't know what self-regulated militia you speak of, but I hope they have a way to survive MIRV's & a supply chain that isn't reliant on fast food and Wal-Mart, because any domestic group that can't will likely be stopped the second our government feels like stopping them.

There’s the Unorganized Militia of the United States and if you’re a male US citizen odds are good that you’re a statutory[1] member. It’s completely distinct from Selective Service.

[1] https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/246

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#48

Post by enzino »

roenxi wrote: post #46
enzino wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial.…

> wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. That isn't in conflict with what bpodgursky said - the country with the larger economy can iterate through technologies more quickly. If their opponents come up with an idea, a highly productive nation can copy and mass produce it. If they come up with an idea, their opponents may not have the industrial base to replicate it. Although I do…

They don't need to engage in traditional warfare. It's enough to bring their products near their enemy and ask for payment in exchange for them. You know, what merchants do. The enemy is stubborn and insists in "paying" them with fake monopoly money, they are stubborn and don't discharge their merchandise. The people in the enemy country as so accustomed to high-quality cheap products that they want them more than a corrupt government, and would gladly rise against it if, say, their traditional Christmas presents are at risk.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#49

Post by enzino »

FromHoiPolloi wrote: post #43
enzino wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial.…

The USSR was perfectly capable of wrecking havoc on itself without the fed. While the Soviet evacuation of it's industry to the east was impressive one must not forget the massive aid the USSR received from the western allies.

You mean those "allies" who signed a non-aggression pact with them and then proceeded to discharge on them the largest amount of explosive material ever in the history of warfare? (Sadly that record held for only a few months.) Because those guys were well funded by the Western banksters.

Re: Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

#50

Post by PeterisP »

yellow_postit wrote: post #29
baybal2 wrote: post #5

To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM. Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.

satellite sabotage/hijacking/repair is a field I would foresee parallel accelerating development in. The critical path for comms and vision when paired with drones makes leo a likely playground but with the fun dynamics of many amateur astronomers being able to watch what’s going on.

In some sense, drones can replace the earlier usage of satellites, especially for countries which do not have a surveilalnce satellite fleet - satellites grant visibility of the battlefield without needing air superiority and risking your pilots; drones do the same. An in a major conflict, it's likely that the big players can take out each others' satellites (and those can't be replaced quickly/easily) but drone swarms can still provide battlefield visibility even in that case.
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