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What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

mackgrenfell.com

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Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#11

Post by mattnewton »

giaour wrote: post #10
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

> As impressive as these examples might seem, we have to consider the fact that no company would ever publicise their results had they observed the opposite. No CMO is going to go on Medium and write an article called We dropped our spend by X%, and saw our volume drop by X%. Even if they did write such a case study, it's unimaginable that it should become part of modern marketing folklore in the way that Airbnb and…

I don’t understand the survivorship bias argument. If any company tried to follow in AirBnB’s footsteps and saw their revenue decline as ad spend went down, wouldn’t they widely publicize this fact? “Hey! AirBnB is wrong, and following their advice nearly destroyed my small business” would be a compelling read and get a lot of traction. I find it hard to believe that such a demonstration of the value of marketing wou…

Of course people would be hesitant to widely publicize a failure of your strategy like that.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#12

Post by franczesko »

nyxaiur wrote: post #4
jamiequint wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of the good agencies do this.

Well if you can give us a list of "good" agencies we will all be better of I guess. Thanks in advance.

Wouldn't this apply to any external services out there? Agencies, software houses, etc. I'm not defending agencies (not glorifying them either), but it's hard to expect from the business model which scales costs proportionally to people hired and not the output, to be lean.

In the end of the day, they need to keep the lights on and it's not their money anyway.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#13

Post by franczesko »

dontich wrote: post #8
jpdaigle wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that basically a "no true Scotsman" fallacy, though? I can completely believe both sides of this: the original Fishkin article, and this rebuttal which claims that "actually, marketers are competent and knowledgeable". One way to look at this, mindful of [Sturgeon's Law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law ) stating that ninety percent of everything is crap, is that good marketing agencies will rise…

Personally I have never found a good agency for these type of things, and I have worked with a bunch. Some in the gaming space were decent enough.

The truth is that with performance marketing the know-how stays in-house. Agencies can't compete with r&d and dedicated analytical and engineering resources big brands have. The services offered are "for the rest of us".

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#14

Post by nyxaiur »

franczesko wrote: post #12
nyxaiur wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if you can give us a list of "good" agencies we will all be better of I guess. Thanks in advance.

Wouldn't this apply to any external services out there? Agencies, software houses, etc. I'm not defending agencies (not glorifying them either), but it's hard to expect from the business model which scales costs proportionally to people hired and not the output, to be lean. In the end of the day, they need to keep the lights on and it's not their money anyway.

In the end we all do and we can decide if we do it with fraud or not.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#15

Post by doctor_eval »

giaour wrote: post #10
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

> As impressive as these examples might seem, we have to consider the fact that no company would ever publicise their results had they observed the opposite. No CMO is going to go on Medium and write an article called We dropped our spend by X%, and saw our volume drop by X%. Even if they did write such a case study, it's unimaginable that it should become part of modern marketing folklore in the way that Airbnb and…

I don’t understand the survivorship bias argument. If any company tried to follow in AirBnB’s footsteps and saw their revenue decline as ad spend went down, wouldn’t they widely publicize this fact? “Hey! AirBnB is wrong, and following their advice nearly destroyed my small business” would be a compelling read and get a lot of traction. I find it hard to believe that such a demonstration of the value of marketing wou…

If advertising drives sales then you will see a decline really quickly if you cut spending. You’ll likely see this decline within hours. In order to restore sales the first thing you’ll do is restore spending.

You’re not going to wait to collect a bunch of data in order to be able to roll it up into meaningful research for a blog post because those lost sales are real money that you’re losing.

The thing is, it’s in AirBNBs interest to discredit advertising because they have a huge organic advantage over their competition. If I want to rent a holiday place somewhere, I’m going to search AirBNB first. Only if it doesn’t work out will I try a broader search, and be exposed to AirBNBs competitors.

Competitors won’t want to publicise the fact that ad spending is important because it gives them an advantage over those who believe AirBNBs argument.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#16

Post by YetAnotherNick »

giaour wrote: post #10
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

> As impressive as these examples might seem, we have to consider the fact that no company would ever publicise their results had they observed the opposite. No CMO is going to go on Medium and write an article called We dropped our spend by X%, and saw our volume drop by X%. Even if they did write such a case study, it's unimaginable that it should become part of modern marketing folklore in the way that Airbnb and…

I don’t understand the survivorship bias argument. If any company tried to follow in AirBnB’s footsteps and saw their revenue decline as ad spend went down, wouldn’t they widely publicize this fact? “Hey! AirBnB is wrong, and following their advice nearly destroyed my small business” would be a compelling read and get a lot of traction. I find it hard to believe that such a demonstration of the value of marketing wou…

And their post would get 0 views and comments like isn't this obvious

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#17

Post by franczesko »

notreallyhere00 wrote: post #9

Wow. This article is excellent. It’s not just the content; he’s even made nice graphics… And the aesthetic of the post on mobile is 10/10. The issues at hand in this post are real. 1. Problem 1 - Awareness Many marketers outside of mega super super high paying startups are BARELY aware of these factors. I’m an amateur at this stuff but people look at me like I’m a wizard when I get my - VERY SIMPLE - Spreadsheets out…

In a smaller scale this probably would be very effective, however I can't see this being possible with bigger client volumes. Also, I noticed in my career some sort of elitism and looking at the marketing from above, which is driven by ignorance in most of the cases.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#18

Post by naravara »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

> As impressive as these examples might seem, we have to consider the fact that no company would ever publicise their results had they observed the opposite. No CMO is going to go on Medium and write an article called We dropped our spend by X%, and saw our volume drop by X%. Even if they did write such a case study, it's unimaginable that it should become part of modern marketing folklore in the way that Airbnb and…

> Obviously no company is going to brag publicly about shooting themselves in the foot by reducing advertising spend, so the only possible anecdotes that can exist publicly are positive ones.

Coca-cola did just that, testing the impact of reduced ad spend in various media markets. They noticed reduced market share as a result and publicized it. Information is valuable. If you’re doing a test presumably it’s worth whatever you’re wagering to get it.

The supposition that it’s “obvious” that nobody would publicize this assumes everyone’s pathologically fixated on saving face and not, like truth or information.

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#19

Post by geoduck14 »

giaour wrote: post #10
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

> As impressive as these examples might seem, we have to consider the fact that no company would ever publicise their results had they observed the opposite. No CMO is going to go on Medium and write an article called We dropped our spend by X%, and saw our volume drop by X%. Even if they did write such a case study, it's unimaginable that it should become part of modern marketing folklore in the way that Airbnb and…

I don’t understand the survivorship bias argument. If any company tried to follow in AirBnB’s footsteps and saw their revenue decline as ad spend went down, wouldn’t they widely publicize this fact? “Hey! AirBnB is wrong, and following their advice nearly destroyed my small business” would be a compelling read and get a lot of traction. I find it hard to believe that such a demonstration of the value of marketing wou…

10 years ago, I worked in mail-based marketing and we saw improvements when we did a better job of targeting our mail.

I've never written about it. But now I am.

AirBnB is totally wrong because of my 10 year old anecdote

Re: What if performance advertising isn't just an analytics scam?

#20

Post by MomoXenosaga »

doctor_eval wrote: post #15
giaour wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand the survivorship bias argument. If any company tried to follow in AirBnB’s footsteps and saw their revenue decline as ad spend went down, wouldn’t they widely publicize this fact? “Hey! AirBnB is wrong, and following their advice nearly destroyed my small business” would be a compelling read and get a lot of traction. I find it hard to believe that such a demonstration of the value of marketing wou…

If advertising drives sales then you will see a decline really quickly if you cut spending. You’ll likely see this decline within hours. In order to restore sales the first thing you’ll do is restore spending. You’re not going to wait to collect a bunch of data in order to be able to roll it up into meaningful research for a blog post because those lost sales are real money that you’re losing. The thing is, it’s in A…

This is interesting, maybe cutting all your ad spending is one of those things you can't really test? Because the consequences if you get it wrong are potentially devastating.
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