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What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

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Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#651
post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It never stops. If it does then the glass cools down and solidifies inside the machinery That's why you can't just flip a switch to turn it off. But what if you stop feeding glass in and wait half a day first?

Couple of things to consider: Many of the processes might require the product is pushed and/or pulled through the machinery. If there is no material behind to push it could cause problems within the machines. Once the continuous process is broken it needs to be restarted somehow. Depending on the type of production this could be days or weeks of work just to rethread all the material through the machines and getting…

I'd certainly rather rethread than rebuild.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#652

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason just-in-time is to blame, is that JIT assumes you have a reasonably stable flow (yes, I worked in manufacturing where we studied JIT a lot). Yes, it was a shift from services to goods that provided the current shock, but it was JIT that meant the system could not adapt to shocks. If you have no buffers (or very small ones), then you cannot quickly adapt. If you put a vase on top of your car and drive away,…

I'm definitely outside my wheelhouse here, so maybe help me understand the current fixation on and criticism of JIT. Are you advocating for more buffers in supply chains generally? If the current scenario is one where goods purchases were simply deferred from early in the pandemic to later (with no real increase in total demand for goods) I can see that solving the issue to some extent. But my point is that total dem…

The problem is JIT is all about steady state operation, and hinders the ability to scale up.

If you have a substantial buffer, when demand picks up you notice that you are drawing from your buffer at an increased rate and you order things early so that you can scale with that increased demand. It's okay if your suppliers need some time to hire additional labor or buy a new machine, even at this increased rate of consumption you still have some time before your stocks run out. There is no need for you to pay your suppliers a premium to drop their existing orders from other customers to support your demand.

If you don't have that extra buffer, then when demand increases there is no avoiding shortages - not only do you need to scale up to increase production and meet this new demand, but now you also have an ever growing backlog of orders that you also need to fulfill. These companies scramble to rush in material and equipment asap, which drives up prices and drains the stocks of other companies, and pushes the problem further up the supply chain. Firms that aren't actually seeing an increase in demand nevertheless must buy more to guarantee their buffers will not run out, further increasing shortfalls in production. What could have been a localized hiccup cascades into a global economic problem.

However it's important to note that the pandemic was not simply a shifting in demand patterns. Early on production in many cases stopped or was extremely reduced as employees quarantined and businesses cancelled orders expecting various drops in consumer demand. Again here, JIT is a problem as it led firms to cancel orders much earlier than they should have, and it makes restarting lines much slower. For example auto makers cancelled their chip orders right away at the start of the pandemic expecting people to save money and not buy cars, but it turned out demand for cars increased, and a lack of chips grinds auto manufacturing to a halt. If the auto manufacturers had just accepted that their inventory of chips might sit on a shelf a little longer, the counter intuitive uptick in demand would have been a blessing instead of a curse.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#653
post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couple of things to consider: Many of the processes might require the product is pushed and/or pulled through the machinery. If there is no material behind to push it could cause problems within the machines. Once the continuous process is broken it needs to be restarted somehow. Depending on the type of production this could be days or weeks of work just to rethread all the material through the machines and getting…

I'd certainly rather rethread than rebuild.

Might not be an option. If the material hardens in the machine it might need to be completely disassembled and rebuilt with many of the parts requiring replacement (since it wouldn't have been designed with disassembly in mind).

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#654
post #621

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All businesses now complain about employee loyalty, but have we earned it? I'd say that business schools have been for the past few decades teaching that management has to be outright militantly hostile towards any employee, going through great lengths to work them to death and drop them at the drop of a hat. Thus, these people have been leading by example on how everything and everyone is replaceable, even creatin…

it's weird but the military got it. Soldiers fight for their brothers or ideology, not for the brass.

They also aren't fired (pun intended!) due to a slight economic downturn.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. The push for zero inventory, just in time, outsourced manufacturing created a traffic jam when there was no buffer to absorb the shock.

It might be worth nothing that Toyota - from where the JIT idea came - hasn't been as much affected by it as many others.

JIT may have originated at Toyota, but Toyota's version of JIT is not what is nowadays commonly referred to as JIT. Toyota's production sytem is a lean manufacturing method where stages of production are rate matched (ie operation B is using parts at the same rate operation A is producing them), but there still are buffers of inventory between stages. The goal is to make the whole system communicate in such a way that when one part needs to change rate, everything else changes rate at the same time.

In conventional JIT, the goal is specifically to minimize inventory by minimizing the time between when something is produced and when it is consumed. This is good from an accounting perspective as money that would be tied up in inventory can be put to other uses such as investments. JIT is about eliminating the variability for which you would need buffers, really the opposite of what Toyota does.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#656
post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd certainly rather rethread than rebuild.

Might not be an option. If the material hardens in the machine it might need to be completely disassembled and rebuilt with many of the parts requiring replacement (since it wouldn't have been designed with disassembly in mind).

> If the material hardens in the machine

Now you've gone in a circle. That's what the original comment was talking about. This subthread is hinged on the idea of that specific problem not happening.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly the incentives government officials face also often favor short time horizons. Therefore I favor any marginal increased investment for 100-year floods from any part of society

> Sadly the incentives government officials face also often favor short time horizons. Thanks in some part to the fundamentally misguided idea that governments should be run like businesses. > Therefore I favor any marginal increased investment for 100-year floods from any part of society Definitely agree. We are bad at dealing with this kind of risk profile, and we need to be more aware of this.

The short time horizons for governments is due to election cycles. Projects that win votes in the next election are prioritized over things that will benefit future administrations. This often leads to wildly inefficient uses of resources, such as projects being regularly cancelled and restarted, and ignorance of maintenance costs.

Running the government "like a business" is meaningless rhetoric and no one can agree on what that actually means, but typically those in favor of the idea want to privatize government services and generally reduce governmental 'bloat' where whatever policies they don't like or utilize are defined to be inefficient. Timescales are typically irrelevant to that discussion.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#658

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason just-in-time is to blame, is that JIT assumes you have a reasonably stable flow (yes, I worked in manufacturing where we studied JIT a lot). Yes, it was a shift from services to goods that provided the current shock, but it was JIT that meant the system could not adapt to shocks. If you have no buffers (or very small ones), then you cannot quickly adapt. If you put a vase on top of your car and drive away,…

I'm definitely outside my wheelhouse here, so maybe help me understand the current fixation on and criticism of JIT. Are you advocating for more buffers in supply chains generally? If the current scenario is one where goods purchases were simply deferred from early in the pandemic to later (with no real increase in total demand for goods) I can see that solving the issue to some extent. But my point is that total dem…

> But my point is that total demand for goods has actually increased and not by a little, by a lot. Buffers in the supply chain can't help with that, can they? An increase in total throughput is needed to solve that, and that's going to take a while. Is there something I'm missing here?

(You didn't ask me and I'm not an expert but) Not if you just use them as a pure buffer (and there's no re-re-adjustment before they're used up), no. But they'd give you some time to think 'Hm, stocks being depleted faster than usual, we need to reorder sooner, and more.'

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“cause reduced private ownership of large companies, resulting in a reduced ability to handle 100-year flood events.” How the market speculation on the value of a company can affect its resiliency ? If tomorrow everyone sold Apple stock for 1 cent, why would Apple the company care ? Same revenue, same costs. Give me a break with the importance of the stock casino.

That wouldn’t be a problem. The problem would be if tomorrow everyone sold Apple stock for $1000, and the government took that as a reason to tax every Apple shareholder for “income” of over $800 per share in the stock casino, forcing Apple’s current shareholders to divest themselves to new shareholders and hence lose control of the company.

Should the control be tied to the stock ownership?

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#660
post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feh, you're right -- I hadn't looked at the leaderboards lately. While that mistake makes me look stupid, I don't think it detracts significantly from what I was trying to say.

It happened when Tesla stock shot up 12%. I guess my read is that if Bezos got his title from a company that didn't exist, in modern, sell-everything form, until 22 years ago... (and in +AWS form, until 19 years ago) And if the current holder got his title from a company that didn't have a physical product until 12 years ago... It's probably a bad bet to say "Obviously, these people are going to be the richest foreve…

>It's probably a bad bet to say "Obviously, these people are going to be the richest forever."

Obviously, but again, the point isn't who's at the very top of the leaderboard. The point is that the material situations of the top, say, 500 richest easily allow for what we plebes would parse as insane economic loss in real wealth, and they'd be basically OK with it. Perhaps they'd no longer be in the top two digits, but they have only really lost in the sense of a high score, not lost in the sense of total dispossession and now your life's over.

If SpaceX was somehow destroyed, reputationally and materially, Musk would still have Tesla, and all his other ventures and economic instruments. Likewise Amazon could go belly-up due to a sudden locavore craze and a drone uprising, and AWS would continue making money hand over fist. My point is that the owner class is thus not actually seriously incentivized to prevent an economic crash, and in fact their apocalypse-bunkers indicate that they're pricing in the clearly non-zero chance of it happening.

Lastly, the numbers you're using about the ages of these mega-corps? Good point about that -- the Hudson's Bay Company once owned more land than any other company ever, acted as first contact to uncontacted Natives, and now they are a department store. That said, I don't think Amazon or Tesla will fall from grace in the near term. Blithely assuming that the HBC, like many a corporation, would have a 20 year lifespan or even just wane in power in 20 years, would have been a bad bet in 1700.

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