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What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

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Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#331

Post by jason0597 »

jonny_eh wrote: post #232
paganel wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think economists call it rent-seeking. There was a book published a couple of years ago (before the pandemic) which was "demonstrating" (so to speak) that going back through history real financial/economic levelling at a reasonable scale only happened as a result of violent means (wars, revolutions etc). I think what those violent means do (among other, more nasty things like people getting killed) is that (in so…

> violent means (wars, revolutions etc). Also plagues/disease. Currently relevant.

This would be true if lockdowns didn't happen. As it is most of the wealth-owning class was told to shut themselves inside, isolate, then we got the vaccine and they manage to live on and keep their wealth. So not even plagues can save us anymore.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#332

Post by throw0101a »

rsj_hn wrote: post #292
throw0101a wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part. To the extent that he does have cash in hand, he has already paid taxes on that cash. What a lot of high wealthy individuals are doing is using their portfolios as collateral against lines of credit. The LOCs give them cash to fund their lifestyle, and they don't have to liquidate their portfolios and take the capital gains charges (at least in the short-term…

Pretty sure many in the middle class do the exact same thing. That's the whole idea behind mortgages, auto loans, etc -- to fund consumption on credit and pay the interest with income.

For the middle-class, the closest would be a home equity line of credit (HELOC). Reverse mortgages are also a variant of this.

Generally though, most 'middle-class loans' have an end date.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#333

Post by darawk »

micromacrofoot wrote: post #329
darawk wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of this is the point, though. The point is that Amazon wouldn't have achieved what it has if Bezos was forced to slowly divest control of his company over the last two decades. Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part. To the extent that he does have cash in hand, he has already paid taxes on that cash. To the extent that he has not paid taxes on his wealth, he is fully incentivized by the share p…

I’m willing to bet he has more cash on hand than we will make in our entire lifetimes… what’s the point of arguing how much it is? the point is that he has so much money that nothing really matters.

The point is exactly what I said in the rest of the comment. He has already paid taxes on the cash he has in hand. The only assets he has not paid taxes on are the shares in AMZN that he has not realized the gains on.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#335

Post by [deleted] »

throw0101a wrote: post #332
rsj_hn wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure many in the middle class do the exact same thing. That's the whole idea behind mortgages, auto loans, etc -- to fund consumption on credit and pay the interest with income.

For the middle-class, the closest would be a home equity line of credit (HELOC). Reverse mortgages are also a variant of this. Generally though, most 'middle-class loans' have an end date.

[deleted]

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#336

Post by joe_the_user »

greendesk wrote: post #211
joe_the_user wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the 'hundred year crisis', I think we have fared relatively well from a purely economic point of view... Covid was essentially "Sars II". If Sars1 had had the qualities needed to be a world wide epidemic, we'd be looking 10-100x the casualties. Sars1 happened a decade ago. Calling this a "hundred year crisis" seems wholly disingenuous. This event was forecast by quite a few people, the world was terribly unprep…

I have a tidbit on the following: >> we'd be looking 10-100x the casualties. Viruses conform to the distribution of deadliness-vs-reproduction rate. For Sars 1 to spread widely, it has to be less deadly. There are limits to how a virus can both be deadly and contagious. But just a tidbit on this statement.

Viruses conform to the distribution of deadliness-vs-reproduction rate.

That's a fine rule of thumb but not something to literally bet your life on. When smallpox was introduced to North America, it wiped out a substantial percentage of the population of the continent (This [1] claims 90%, which might be much but it was a lot).

[1] https://www.pbs.org/gunsgermssteel/variables/smallpox.html

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#337

Post by darawk »

throw0101a wrote: post #286
darawk wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of this is the point, though. The point is that Amazon wouldn't have achieved what it has if Bezos was forced to slowly divest control of his company over the last two decades. Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part. To the extent that he does have cash in hand, he has already paid taxes on that cash. To the extent that he has not paid taxes on his wealth, he is fully incentivized by the share p…

> Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part. To the extent that he does have cash in hand, he has already paid taxes on that cash. What a lot of high wealthy individuals are doing is using their portfolios as collateral against lines of credit. The LOCs give them cash to fund their lifestyle, and they don't have to liquidate their portfolios and take the capital gains charges (at least in the short-term…

> What a lot of high wealthy individuals are doing is using their portfolios as collateral against lines of credit. The LOCs give them cash to fund their lifestyle, and they don't have to liquidate their portfolios and take the capital gains charges (at least in the short-term).

> Someone can have both holdings and cash in this situation.

Ya, I understand this. This is exactly my point, though. If he's taken out loans against his shares, he is even more incentivized by the value of those shares than if he had not done so.

To the extent that he has pure (unencumbered) cash positions, he's paid taxes. To the extent that he has unrealized gains or loans against unrealized gains, he is incentivized by share price appreciation.

This was in response to the a comment suggesting that because Bezos had already cashed out, he didn't care about the value of his shares anymore.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#338

Post by rsj_hn »

throw0101a wrote: post #332
rsj_hn wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure many in the middle class do the exact same thing. That's the whole idea behind mortgages, auto loans, etc -- to fund consumption on credit and pay the interest with income.

For the middle-class, the closest would be a home equity line of credit (HELOC). Reverse mortgages are also a variant of this. Generally though, most 'middle-class loans' have an end date.

I think a lot of middle class people roll over their debt, too, no? Say buying a new car when the warranty expires on the old car. Or buying a new house every 10 years (US average).

But I don't feel like digging around SCF data, so this is just a hunch. Having said that, my hunch is that middle class households are much more indebted than wealthy households.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#339

Post by efficax »

legitster wrote: post #158

No, no, no! Stockpiling is not a solution to a bottleneck! In the grand scheme of things, having a couple weeks of extra inventory on hand will not help you weather a 100 year storm. But it will increase waste - inventory that you have to throw away when there are defects or when they become obsolete. Imagine trying to predict the run on lumber, and the solution was to have kept a bunch of lumber sitting in yards rot…

the wood in my house is over 100 years old and is still in good shape. Stored properly, wood lasts very long. but i get your overall point. A balance has to be struck between too much and too little inventory...

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#340

Post by andrekandre »

darawk wrote: post #269
revolvingocelot wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it's still in his best interest to ensure that the economy doesn't crash Technically, yeah! Functionally, though, if the Even Greater Depression arrived tomorrow? He'd still be the richest man alive, and probably even more powerful than he already is right now thanks to how Amazon and AWS would get to take over more failing social institutions. Sure, a falling tide lowers all boats, but Bezos will still comfortably…

None of this is the point, though. The point is that Amazon wouldn't have achieved what it has if Bezos was forced to slowly divest control of his company over the last two decades. Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part. To the extent that he does have cash in hand, he has already paid taxes on that cash. To the extent that he has not paid taxes on his wealth, he is fully incentivized by the share p…

  > Bezos does not have his cash in hand, for the most part.
yes, but it works as collateral for whatever cash he may need/want, which means effectively the same thing in the end, no?
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