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What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

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Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#131

Post by dpierce9 »

The average lifespan of a company is 10 years.[0] The average lifespan of companies on the S&P is maybe a little more than twice that. Each year you have a 1/100 chance of seeing a hundred year flood. With a short lifespan the odds are decent that your company simply won’t see one. The question is then: how good of an idea is it to spend to be robust to them? Of course it is viciously circular: planning to not be robust to white swans is probably why the lifespans are so short and shrinking.

Tim Cook doesn’t have voting control of Apple but it is sitting on a massive shock absorber made of cash earning insanely low rates of return. The idea that you need control of the board to be robust doesn’t seem to be necessary. It is probably helpful but it isn’t necessary.

[0] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150401132856.h...

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#132

Post by ghaff »

JPKab wrote: post #93
evilotto wrote: post #33

He's right to point out that the obsession with RoE is a big part of the problem. He's wrong to suggest that the billionaire class and founders will solve the problem if we only trust them and let them keep their money. Founders have just as much incentive to optimize the excess out of the system, they just call it "disruptive innovation" by which they mean tweaking how the system works so that they can squeeze out p…

The obsession with RoE is really just a major form of efficiency. Having things sitting around unused is a huge reason that US car companies got their asses handed to them by Toyota and their TQM/LEAN system they developed. People writing articles like this forget that it's not just Wall Street, but competitors who created the huge pressures for adopting JIT inventory systems. There's also the consumer. Are you willi…

The Toyota system got a lot of attention in the DevOps world because basic principles such as empowering workers resonated with the movement. Reducing waste throughout the system doesn't get as much attention--given that computer software doesn't really have inventory as such (at least not literally)--but inventory/WIP reduction was an important motivation behind Toyota's system.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#133

Post by jollybean »

whatever1 wrote: post #56
flurie wrote: post #45

The buried lede is an assertion that a tax on unrealized capital gains will cause reduced private ownership of large companies, resulting in a reduced ability to handle 100-year flood events. Along the way, there are a bunch of other assertions that serve as prerequisites, like the idea that these companies can cultivate better employee loyalty and plan for longer horizons. How much do we know about how true that is,…

“cause reduced private ownership of large companies, resulting in a reduced ability to handle 100-year flood events.” How the market speculation on the value of a company can affect its resiliency ? If tomorrow everyone sold Apple stock for 1 cent, why would Apple the company care ? Same revenue, same costs. Give me a break with the importance of the stock casino.

The assumption that stock prices don't matter, because company ABC doesn't necessarily depend on it 'for now' - is just wrong I'm afraid.

If Apple crashed to 1 cent it would gut the entire market. Even just that crash alone, the amount of money wiped out, retiree savings etc., other companies would be valued lower and then the mass selloff would crush them as well.

Apple may not need to 'raise money now' but it very well could in the future - and - every company is somewhat of a proxy for every other company.

If there is no ROI, there is no investment, and there is no economy outside the government, it's that simple.

Taxes on unrealized gains are a separate thing, and probably a bad idea - just contemplate that they would have to be paired with tax-sheilds on unrealized losses as well. Due to speculation, it would open up the door to all sorts of shenanigans.

It's just a bad idea all around.

Elon Musk is a 'paper zillionaire' that's very, very different than someone with a zillion in the bank.

There are probably some very boring, old, already established ideas for increasing taxes on the ultra-wealthy that would probably work very well. Including getting rid of loopholes etc..

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#134

Post by tmp538394722 »

bluetwo wrote: post #77
evilotto wrote: post #33

He's right to point out that the obsession with RoE is a big part of the problem. He's wrong to suggest that the billionaire class and founders will solve the problem if we only trust them and let them keep their money. Founders have just as much incentive to optimize the excess out of the system, they just call it "disruptive innovation" by which they mean tweaking how the system works so that they can squeeze out p…

I don't think he is talking about tech founders. I think he is talking about mom and pop businesses of all types. Tech founders are a different breed.

What do you mean - How are they different?

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#135

Post by giantrobot »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #76
pphysch wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of things, they are just stuck on boats off California.

There's a shortage of many things that aren't on boats off California as well.

The goods stuck on ships waiting to be unloaded don't help the overall situation. Containers sitting loaded on ships and ships waiting in an anchorage are containers and ships that can't pick up newly manufactured items elsewhere.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#136

Post by dpierce9 »

The average lifespan of a company is 10 years.[0] The average lifespan of companies on the S&P is maybe a little more than twice that. Each year you have a 1/100 chance of seeing a hundred year flood. With a short lifespan the odds are decent that your company simply won’t see one. The question is then: how good of an idea is it to spend to be robust to them? Of course it is viciously circular: planning to not be robust to white swans is probably why the lifespans are so short and shrinking.

As for the turn to founder control, one counterexample is Tim Cook who doesn’t have voting control of Apple but is sitting on a massive shock absorber made of cash earning insanely low rates of return. The idea that you need control of the board to be robust doesn’t seem to be necessary. It is probably helpful, apple may be sui generis, but it isn’t necessary.

[0] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150401132856.h...

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#137

Post by starky »

nostrademons wrote: post #91
justinator wrote: post #55

Sorry, I don't trust this guy. It was just explained how he uses social media to manipulate the story he tells. https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/an-unexpected-victor...

This is communication 101. If you start internalizing that form of storytelling, you'll see it everywhere - literally all of our public discourse has this structure, from the Build Back Better plan to "Immigrants are taking our jobs" to "Flatten the curve" to the right-wing school-board stuff to fluff pieces on local restaurants to top-ranked HN comments. It's so prevalent because it works - it taps into fundamental…

Exactly, I think the most succinctly way I've heard it put is, "Everything is Marketing"

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#138

Post by t-writescode »

wvenable wrote: post #102
dragonwriter wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On Twitter as everywhere else, approximately nobody clicks the link. But there's some chance they’ll read through a chain of tweets.

I clicked a link to get to this twitter feed monstrosity.

A large percentage of TypeFast's twitter followers won't.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#139

Post by philwelch »

mfer wrote: post #60
cmenge wrote: post #11

Hm, seems like a monocausal 'explanation' of a complex problem - or let's say a mere opinion with little background information. Given the 'hundred year crisis', I think we have fared relatively well from a purely economic point of view... So, yes, some problems may exist but I think we have witnessed a surprisingly resilient system, given how optimized everything is and how unprecedented the issue is. I don't know i…

> I don't know if a slight price increase in graphics cards is the key issue to worry about at this point. The price increase in graphics cards isn't related to this. GMs trouble selling cars because they don't have enough chips to finish off the cars is a problem related to the pandemic and planning like the posts on Twitter note. The lack of new cars available has driven up prices on used cars. This is all supply c…

> In the last 130 years there have been two world wars and two global pandemics.

I count 13 global pandemics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#Chronology

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#140

Post by thereddaikon »

simonh wrote: post #57
evilotto wrote: post #33

He's right to point out that the obsession with RoE is a big part of the problem. He's wrong to suggest that the billionaire class and founders will solve the problem if we only trust them and let them keep their money. Founders have just as much incentive to optimize the excess out of the system, they just call it "disruptive innovation" by which they mean tweaking how the system works so that they can squeeze out p…

You have it backwards. Rents are revenue accrued due to the ownership of a resource, such as grants, subsidies, tax breaks and loaning or leasing an asset. Optimising out excesses is minimising the holding of assets, so it’s directly antithetical to rent seeking strategies.

Rent-seeking practices are not the same as a traditional Rent or Lease arrangement. They get the term because instead of buying a product that you know own and can do with as you wish, they still maintain control as if you were a renter.

A topical example is consumer electronics companies designing devices to only last so long and actively suppressing the after market through DRM, difficult or dangerous to repair designs, restricting owner autonomy through software patents and IP law and other methods to ensure you must come back to them and purchase another one.

Another more direct example is the slow conversion of all paid as a product software into subscription services. You can't buy the adobe suite anymore. You have to subscribe to it. Sooner or later you wont be able to buy your operating system either.

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