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What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

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Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#71

Post by erosenbe0 »

nimbius wrote: post #58

I can speak from a trucking perspective. it was a cascade failure for professional drivers. when covid first hit, supply chains either had too much or too little almost instantly. Things like raw supplies based on JIT ordering either ground to a halt because demand died and so did the modelling, or because demand was too high for the computer model (think a bell curve.) low-boy trucks shipping things like constructio…

Hook NPR up with some people to interview and some B-roll crane and diesel noses. They have been discussing this and might appreciate.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#72

Post by dragonwriter »

hk1337 wrote: post #69

What's the deal with writing 20+ consecutive tweets instead of a blog post and tweeting the link to the blog post?

On Twitter as everywhere else, approximately nobody clicks the link. But there's some chance they’ll read through a chain of tweets.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#74

Post by callmeal »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #17

Really? Forced shutdowns -> things not being made -> not enough things... It's basic supply/demand. If demand stays the same but supply is interrupted, production needs to increase for the same amount of time just to satisfy the demand that went unfulfilled. If supply is interrupted and 'reopening' simply means going back to initial production, you'll always be playing catch up.

It's not that simple. Modern (just-in-time) practices have created a situation where a single change in customer demand leads to widespread supply shocks. Take a look at the beer game[0] for a smaller version of real life.

That's what happened here - lockdowns led to a single change in customer demand for a wide variety of goods both on the personal side(more people at home -> snacks, food, toiletpaper that would have been used up at work started being needed at home), and on the commercial side (no people in the office: no ongoing bulk papertowels/toiletpaper/vending machines/office supplies).

[0] https://www.shmula.com/the-bullwhip-effect/310/

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#75

Post by [deleted] »

pphysch wrote: post #52
Mikeb85 wrote: post #17

Really? Forced shutdowns -> things not being made -> not enough things... It's basic supply/demand. If demand stays the same but supply is interrupted, production needs to increase for the same amount of time just to satisfy the demand that went unfulfilled. If supply is interrupted and 'reopening' simply means going back to initial production, you'll always be playing catch up.

There are plenty of things, they are just stuck on boats off California.

[deleted]

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#76

Post by Mikeb85 »

pphysch wrote: post #52
Mikeb85 wrote: post #17

Really? Forced shutdowns -> things not being made -> not enough things... It's basic supply/demand. If demand stays the same but supply is interrupted, production needs to increase for the same amount of time just to satisfy the demand that went unfulfilled. If supply is interrupted and 'reopening' simply means going back to initial production, you'll always be playing catch up.

There are plenty of things, they are just stuck on boats off California.

There's a shortage of many things that aren't on boats off California as well.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#77

Post by bluetwo »

evilotto wrote: post #33

He's right to point out that the obsession with RoE is a big part of the problem. He's wrong to suggest that the billionaire class and founders will solve the problem if we only trust them and let them keep their money. Founders have just as much incentive to optimize the excess out of the system, they just call it "disruptive innovation" by which they mean tweaking how the system works so that they can squeeze out p…

I don't think he is talking about tech founders. I think he is talking about mom and pop businesses of all types.

Tech founders are a different breed.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#79

Post by CityOfThrowaway »

cmenge wrote: post #64
ben_w wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was just one item, such as graphics cards, I wouldn’t be particularly concerned. The problem is it’s a bit of everything, a mere 11-ish years after the Great Recession, which was itself “supposed” to be a once-a-century economic catastrophe.

I was trying to be a bit dramatic there... Sure, it affects everything and given the complex interconnections and dependencies within production chains / networks, the cause-and-effect relationships are hard to understand and cause for concern. But given how complex and decentralized things are, I am still amazed we haven't seen worse effects (yet). I doubt that spare capacity in logistics alone would make a huge dif…

First one thing, and then the next.

The spiral is in its early innings right now. Hold on tight!

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