Earlier quoted context omitted.
What do you mean? Smallpox is extinct, diptheria, pertussus and polio are nearly extinct, and measles mumps and rubella would be nearly extinct if not for pockets of antivaxers creating a constant stream of outbreaks. Go look up how many diseases these people killed prior to the vaccines, and then a few years after. You are absolutely taking for granted what we've accomplished through the use of vaccines.
I agree but those were scientists from the past that practiced real science. Meaning they accepted counter arguments and evidence; not just dictate. They also discovered through the scientific method that you can not vaccinate for corona viruses They also were acutely aware you should never mass vaccinate during a pandemic. They were correct and that is why you see the results in Israel, Singapore, England, and now t…
If you just look at the totals for their whole population it may not look that way because you run into a Simpson's paradox situation. That's because older people are both more likely in general to have their COVID cases be severe, and older people in Israel or more likely to be vaccinated.
To illustrate, imagine a population that has 2000 young people and 2000 old people, and both groups are 50% vaccinated with a vaccine that reduces your chances of severe disease by 90%, and image we are dealing with a disease that is 20x as likely to be severe in old people than it is in young people. Let's say that 1% of young, unvaccinated people get severe disease.
Here are the number of severe cases we'd expect in that population.
1 in the 1000 young vaccinated people
10 in the 1000 young unvaccinated people
20 in the 1000 old vaccinated people
200 in the 1000 old unvaccinated people
9.1% of severe cases would be in vaccinated people.
Now consider a population with 2000 young people and 2000 old people, with the same vaccines that reduces your chances of severe disease by 90% and where the diseases is 20x as likely to be severe in old people, but in this population 90% of the old people are vaccinated but the young are still only 50% vaccinated.
Here are the number of severe cases we'd expect in that population.
1 in the 1000 young vaccinated people
10 in the 1000 young unvaccinated people
36 in the 1800 old vaccinated people
40 in the 200 old unvaccinated people
42.6% of cases would be in vaccinated people.
If the young people also get vaccinated at the same 90% rate as the old people, here are the numbers for severe cases.
1.8 in the 1800 young vaccinated people
2 in the 200 young unvaccinated people
36 in the 1800 old vaccinated people
40 in the 200 old vaccinated people
47.4% of cases would be in vaccinated people.
If no one was vaccinated, the numbers would be
20 in the 2000 unvaccinated young people
400 in the 2000 unvaccinated old people
If everyone was vaccinated, the numbers would be
2 in the 2000 vaccinated young people
40 in the 2000 vaccinated old people
It is useful to look at the severe case totals in our population of 2000 young people and 2000 old people.
420 severe cases when no one is vaccinated
231 severe cases when 50% of both young and old are vaccinated
87 severe cases when 50% of young and 90% of old are vaccinated
79.8 severe cases when 90% of both young and old are vaccinated
42 severe cases when everyone is vaccinated