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People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

scientificamerican.com

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Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#131

Post by toss1 »

motohagiography wrote: post #92
toss1 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it's LARPing or "intellectual exercise" for some, but for many if not most, it's their reality. I've personally tried to reason with some - it is truly and deeply a waste of time. They literally cannot see beyond their own senses, e.g., want to see for themselves the curvature of the earth, yet they believe that it is the case that every one of the billions of photos of the earth from space or high altitude is…

Not disagreeing, but I think this idea of theorists believing there are hidden patterns as an impotent attempt to impose control on a random and uncertain world falls into its own categorical/binary/blackandwhite trap that also overlooks complexity. Someone seeing periodicity or even symmetry, fractal self simlarity, or isomorphic structure in something noisy could just as easily be accused of apophenia until they pr…

Yes, I kind of gave the research short shrift summarizing it in half a sentence. IIRC, they found quite strong correlations between intolerance for uncertainty and conspiracy thinking.

I'm not sure it conflicts, and likely even correlates well with your view of how people relate to power and truth.

Whatever the root cause is relatively unimportant, until an aspiring authoritarian starts herding those who have trouble with objective reality - creates support for a regime that will constrain the rest of us.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#132

Post by bulatb »

kbelder wrote: post #117
bulatb wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's rational for them to lobby against GMO labeling because it's a lose-lose proposition, even if they honestly believe their food is safe and eat it themselves. Either it scares off consumers (some of whom won't know what GMO means but understandably assume it's bad because it's disclosed) or they have to spend a bunch of money on "consumer education" and lose some of them anyway. That's whether GMOs are safe or no…

You probably mean "hard water"?

A heavy water molecule has deuterium in place of hydrogen; the extra neurons make it "heavy." Most water has some miniscule amount of heavy water in it.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#133

Post by GoblinSlayer »

SamBam wrote: post #124
GoblinSlayer wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flat earther trolls that I saw didn't look sincere or stupid, they looked ironic.

This may simply be a function of your inability to believe that they could be sincere. There are without question plenty of "real" flat earthers our there. People willing to spend actual money on experiments doomed to fail. People cutting ties with their families because they don't agree with them. When we read people espousing flat earth views on YouTube or Reddit or wherever, out natural assumption is to think that…

You want to say irony must be imagined and can't be seen?

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#134

Post by GoblinSlayer »

kibwen wrote: post #121
GoblinSlayer wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flat earther trolls that I saw didn't look sincere or stupid, they looked ironic.

"Irony", or what passes for it these days, is too often a deliberate tactic to equivocate a sincere belief while retaining plausible deniability. Unless they deliberately call out their comments with something like an explicit sarcasm tag, we are forced to assume they are sincere.

In my culture irony equivocates amusement, not sincere belief.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#135

Post by tonyedgecombe »

iammisc wrote: post #109
helen___keller wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a hypothetical person, so no, I am not speaking to the hypothetical person. My point is that IF uncle bob's belief system segued into beliefs about masks and vax, then it becomes more visible and causes conflict with family members who didn't give a shit about the previous belief system; not that all conspiracies will necessarily turn into beliefs about masks and vax.

It seems to me that there's been an uptick in cutting off family members because it sends a social signal to those you're speaking with that you're the kind of person that only cavorts with rational people. Given how individualistic america is today, cutting off your family for 'rationality's sake is seen as a good thing, whereas to most cultures, this is seen as utterly horrific. Well that and the preponderance of c…

>It seems to me that there's been an uptick in cutting off family members because it sends a social signal to those you're speaking with that you're the kind of person that only cavorts with rational people.

It seems to me there has been an uptick in people wrongly assuming someone else's attempts to fix a problem are all down to social signalling.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#136

Post by bulatb »

bulatb wrote: post #132
kbelder wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You probably mean "hard water"?

A heavy water molecule has deuterium in place of hydrogen; the extra neurons make it "heavy." Most water has some miniscule amount of heavy water in it.

(Neutrons.)

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#137

Post by iammisc »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #135
iammisc wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that there's been an uptick in cutting off family members because it sends a social signal to those you're speaking with that you're the kind of person that only cavorts with rational people. Given how individualistic america is today, cutting off your family for 'rationality's sake is seen as a good thing, whereas to most cultures, this is seen as utterly horrific. Well that and the preponderance of c…

>It seems to me that there's been an uptick in cutting off family members because it sends a social signal to those you're speaking with that you're the kind of person that only cavorts with rational people. It seems to me there has been an uptick in people wrongly assuming someone else's attempts to fix a problem are all down to social signalling.

haha touche.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#138

Post by _y5hn »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #129
_y5hn wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because most of it is absence of critical thinking and facts. There are many real conspiracies, but they become real when backed by facts for the allegations.

Yeah. I'm not saying we shouldn't exercise some healthy skepticism when dealing with new ideas. However, there seems to be such a widespread stereotype plaguing these people saying they shouldn't even be given the time of day. They even create conspiracionist characters in movies. Dude is always treated as some funny nutjob even when they're right. The US is a country with documented examples of doctors injecting mic…

Just stop entertaining generalizations, and do some research to back up claims.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#139

Post by david422 »

smiley1437 wrote: post #81
david422 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

c) - haha, that is probably true. I have a relative that just bought a new car. After a little negotiation, got a couple thousand (?) knocked off the price of like a $35k car. "Great deal" - but I'm pretty sure the dealer is prepared to offer a price that is only as low as a great deal for the dealer as well.

Exactly - that dealer could be negotiating dozens of car deals a day, has a ton of experience, PLUS he knows much more about his side of the deal (actual costs and back end rebates, etc) A typical buyer negotiates for a car only a few times in their life. Who do you think is likely to come out on top?

I had to fix my car once - the defroster wasn't working - and the bill came out wayyy higher than I had expected - like $1100 on a car that was probably only worth 3 or 4k by my estimates. I was pretty unhappy and I was trying to figure out where the breakdown had occurred. The dealer had talked to me about some complications they had run into and some options they could pursue to fix the heater, and I had given my approval. But I hadn't put together the labor rate and time spent. Was it my fault for not asking? If I had known up front I would have thought twice about sinking 1k into a 3k car. Ultimately I think the dealer held the power in that situation and while it was my fault, the dealer certainly didn't help make it clear. Anyways, that's how you lose trust and business.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#140

Post by AvocadoPanic »

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #75
rglover wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire "Jewish space laser" thing was never actually said. She mentioned names of people who are Jewish, but that terminology/connection was made by the media. Nothing she said illuminated this connection in any way. Was her point grounded in reality? Hell no. But the exact point being made above is highlighted by your comment. Her original post: https://politizoom.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Greene-las... .

The phenomenon of the exaggerations of "Jewish space lasers" and "horse paste" is an interesting topic. There's a perfectly reasonable point to be made in each case, but many of the people making it feel the need to overstate the case and make it even more absurd. I think it's because mockery spreads faster on the internet than a simple debunking. And so the thing being debunked is turned into its most extreme form.…

Let's go Brandon!
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