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More Americans are considering retirement

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Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read their comment again. The person you’re replying to adjusted for inglflation.

I read it, but I was playing devils advocate arguing the inflation number are incorrect relative to the value of the dollar 30 years ago on essential goods.

Is this going to turn into one of those "the CPI is rigged, the actual inflation rate is..." posts?

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of raw wages, it seems like overall the millenial generation does have either lower wages or higher debt than the boomer generation. Page 16 (table 2) compares wages from 1979 to 2019: the wages have gone up for college grads but have gone down for non-college grads. [0] Do note, of course, that to get those college wages, most students needed to go deeply in debt. In terms of the larger economic environment…

the college wage premimum holds even after accounting for student loan debt

The research I found from the FRED Blog tells me that "the college premium may or may not be very strong depending on birth year, family, and other inherited characteristics. When looking at the wealth premium instead of just the income premium, the college premium was weak for all races and ethnicities in the 1980s cohorts, whereas the college premium exists for cohorts in earlier decades." [0]

When we put that in the context of the conversation, it does indeed seem like non-college earnings are lower, and the advantage of going to college has lessened.

[0] Premium: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/07/is-college-still-wor...

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that the FAANG gravy train can last 30 years is not realistic. If at least half the letters in FAANG aren't blown away in that time period, it would suggest a tech environment so stagnant that it would be impossible to justify the compensation. And lasting 30 years at a surviving FAANG company is such a low-probability prospect that it's not something reasonable to include in any future planning. Very few FA…

I almost fully agree with you, but a small part of me wonders if this is different, and we've created a sort of aristocracy that exists outside of normal competition and the rise and fall of companies. In some measure, it's going to depend on modernization of monopoly regulations. But I think there is an outside chance that were due for 50+ years of stagnation and increasing inequality, after the sort of cambrian exp…

Oooh, I like the analogy. Does it mean we're due for a mass extinction event in the tech industry in the future?

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#85
post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

You know what would get folks retiring sooner? Lowering Medicare eligible.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#86
post #55
post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

There are a bunch of 60+ senior developers sitting there occupying positions in the modern software industry? If so, they must have been damn lucky not needing to look for work after they hit 45 or so... Or, are they doing stuff "nobody in their right mind" would be interested in doing, like Cobol or Fortran?

Most workers are not software developers. None of the people in the article were. The comment you were replying to didn't mention devs.

Unpopular opinion: Silicon Valley is not the center of the universe.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#87
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read it, but I was playing devils advocate arguing the inflation number are incorrect relative to the value of the dollar 30 years ago on essential goods.

Is this going to turn into one of those "the CPI is rigged, the actual inflation rate is..." posts?

Well "rigged" is a bit much, but if people spend large amounts of their money on things that are not included in the CPI basket, then the CPI is an incomplete measure.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

I am sinking in debt thanks to my college, and you think boomers have that problem? No, they don't, and I wonder how old you are considering your views -- I honestly don't think you know any boomers with views like this, considering your only argument is the ones at grocery stores. My grandfather worked at a grocery store for 30 years and has a pension still going to this day. No jobs have pensions anymore. And I bet…

Not an American. I want to understand college debt. Is the situation so binary that if people don't take un-returnable debt they'll be stuck in lower end minimum-wage manual jobs? I understand state colleges are relatively cheaper.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#89
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the vast majority of them own property that they originally purchased for under $50k which, if sold, would net them hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. Many of them are on pensions (something that doesn't even exist anymore), plus they receive social security payments.

Maybe in high-COL areas, but a lot of the older people in the US also tend to live in areas that young people have mostly left, like rural areas or small towns. Owning a house for 30 years in Berkeley in 2021 is a lot different than owning a house for 30 years in Gary, IN.

Houses in rural areas still cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, with the added benefit of a lower cost of living.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#90
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the vast majority of them own property that they originally purchased for under $50k which, if sold, would net them hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. Many of them are on pensions (something that doesn't even exist anymore), plus they receive social security payments.

It's not like boomers in the '70s and early '80s had $50k just lying around. Even today that is considered a sizable amount of $. Wages were pretty low back then even when adjusted for inflation. Saving $50k would have been a major challenge even for professionals back in the 80s. It's easy to see how cheap things were generations ago and think that this meant things were thus more affordable, but not necessarily so.

No, but the previous generation was able to buy their houses for $15k and the boomers went and inherited all of that.
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