41–50 of 101 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?
Anything and everything? 50 years people thought we’d have flying cars and unions. Who would have imagined all the automation? It is a world of work that was inconceivable to most people then.
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The idea that the FAANG gravy train can last 30 years is not realistic. If at least half the letters in FAANG aren't blown away in that time period, it would suggest a tech environment so stagnant that it would be impossible to justify the compensation. And lasting 30 years at a surviving FAANG company is such a low-probability prospect that it's not something reasonable to include in any future planning. Very few FA…
The idea that professional software developers will have their negotiating power depleted is preposterous. Barring an AGI that can take care of knowledge work, companies will continue to pay a premium to developers because they are often times the core value creators of the business. Even in traditional areas like finance, quants with CS PhDs are displacing Harvard MBA’s trading on fundamentals b/c their returns blow…
Lol, I heard the same arguments in the 1990s about webmasters, which at that time were also commanding large premiums over the market median. I also remember when any engineer who touched a linux kernel could make 3x "normal developer" wages. Most FAANG engineers aren't working on anything too special; the biggest competition will be off the shelf frameworks/libraries/application which can do what previously required custom work.
We are also in a period of easy investment money - the biggest threat to FAANG companies is the market demanding a return on their investment - P/E ratios are at historically unsustainable levels. Either "this time is different", or this will all end very badly for a lot of people, just like the first dot-com boom.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?
A big part of older folks wealth is based on gains from housing. Do you think that will continue at the same pace and leave us with an inflation-adjusted doubling or tripling of home prices? Do you think migration trends into cities will continue unabated? Do you think US population growth which drives much of the housing market will continue?
Those of us under 50 though? Much harder time ahead than this discussed cohort, all the juice has been squeezed and growth will be at a reduced rate as the population pyramid compresses.
This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.
When I started professionally networking, I kept hearing that I needed to weigh the experiences of those close to retirement. I learned the most from people who I could tell would retire before 50.
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Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…
In terms of raw wages, it seems like overall the millenial generation does have either lower wages or higher debt than the boomer generation. Page 16 (table 2) compares wages from 1979 to 2019: the wages have gone up for college grads but have gone down for non-college grads. [0] Do note, of course, that to get those college wages, most students needed to go deeply in debt. In terms of the larger economic environment…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…
Your anecdotes are absolutely not backed up by the data: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-depressing-chart-show...
The chart also ignore the population share of each generation - Baby boomers made up a massive part of the US population - 70M out of a population of about 210M (1980) or 33% when they hit working age.
Millennials are slightly larger in numbers - 72M, but smaller part of the total of 330M (2020) or 21%.
Crude analysis and you’d have to assume everything else remains the same (it doesnt), but if all wealth was equally distributed by age you’d expect Millenials (of the same age) to have about 33% less share of the total wealth based on population alone.
Which isn’t far off from that chart if you assume Millennials track similar to Gen-X.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?
Anything and everything? 50 years people thought we’d have flying cars and unions. Who would have imagined all the automation? It is a world of work that was inconceivable to most people then.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…
I am sinking in debt thanks to my college, and you think boomers have that problem? No, they don't, and I wonder how old you are considering your views -- I honestly don't think you know any boomers with views like this, considering your only argument is the ones at grocery stores. My grandfather worked at a grocery store for 30 years and has a pension still going to this day. No jobs have pensions anymore. And I bet…
What degree/program were you enrolled in? And how much debt is 'sinking in debt'?
It seems to me that its been well known for years which degrees/careers are profitable and which aren't. Most school's graduation outcomes are publicly published so it shouldn't be too hard to do the calculus. That said I do understand how can easily get into a bad situation since most college decisions are made when you are ~18 plus a lot of people depend on parental assistance which can be unpredictable to say the least.
On another note, it is important to consider that owning a home prior to the modern super low rates had the opposite problem; the purchase price and corresponding down payment was easy but the payments are 'expensive'. Unless you had prior knowledge that interest rates were going to bottom out, there was little reason to think you would make much in real estate and for middle America making the mortgage payment was a constant struggle. In some ways the bull run on the stock market is an even better 'generational-specific-early-investment-strategy' for millenials because you can make 10%, 20%, even 30% YoY returns without any risk or upfront cost.
Really at this point, the most worse off are the last of the millennials and future gen-z individuals entering the labor force. Asset prices including both stock and real estate are at all time highs and pretty much everyone agrees both are in a bubble but both continue to give >10% YoY returns which makes non-participation very difficult to recommend.