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More Americans are considering retirement

bloomberg.com

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Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#21

Post by throwdecro »

andreilys wrote: post #13
throwdecro wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that the FAANG gravy train can last 30 years is not realistic. If at least half the letters in FAANG aren't blown away in that time period, it would suggest a tech environment so stagnant that it would be impossible to justify the compensation. And lasting 30 years at a surviving FAANG company is such a low-probability prospect that it's not something reasonable to include in any future planning. Very few FA…

The idea that professional software developers will have their negotiating power depleted is preposterous. Barring an AGI that can take care of knowledge work, companies will continue to pay a premium to developers because they are often times the core value creators of the business. Even in traditional areas like finance, quants with CS PhDs are displacing Harvard MBA’s trading on fundamentals b/c their returns blow…

There's a difference between "software developers" and "FAANG software developer" though, which is a source of great cognitive dissonance when people see that industry averages are only slightly above $100k/year but FAANG compensation is like 3-4 times that for basic engineering work.

Both are paid a premium, but FAANG is paid a massive premium, and there isn't much precedent for collecting that massive premium continuously for 30 years.

EDIT: Actually in that spreadsheet I would argue that the $250K compensation is too low, the 10% return on investment is too high, and the 30 year timeframe is not sustainable.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#22

Post by sam0x17 »

jonas21 wrote: post #17
futureshock wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your anecdotes are absolutely not backed up by the data: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-depressing-chart-show...

By looking only at share of wealth, this is missing the fact that total wealth in the US has grown tremendously over the time period in question. In absolute terms, the inflation-adjusted amount of wealth held by the Baby Boomer and Millennial generations at similar ages is about the same. In 1989 (the first year in the Fed's data), the Baby Boomer generation held $4.33T in wealth, which would be $9.5T in today's dol…

One of my elderly grandparents has a pension from doing what would today be considered a "gig economy" 1099 job (was W2 w/health insurance and a retirement account back then), and this has payed enough for him to live off of for the last 25 years of his retirement. He get's $1800/month because he worked as a bag boy 30 years ago. It's nuts.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#23

Post by golemiprague »

paulpauper wrote: post #7
dougmwne wrote: post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

[dead]

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#24

Post by LurkingPenguin »

paulpauper wrote: post #7
dougmwne wrote: post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

> There are plenty of opportunities for young people to get rich.

Can confirm. I was directionless in life until I read a comment on a message board about working from home on Google with the potential to earn $5,000/week. I made my first million in a year and a half by investing the earnings from that into meme stocks, pink sheets stocks and SPACs I found on Reddit while living at home with my parents.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#25

Post by cercatrova »

refurb wrote: post #18
dougmwne wrote: post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

This take only makes sense if you assume the next 40 years will be similar to the last 40.

They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#26

Post by Ancalagon »

jonas21 wrote: post #17
futureshock wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your anecdotes are absolutely not backed up by the data: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-depressing-chart-show...

By looking only at share of wealth, this is missing the fact that total wealth in the US has grown tremendously over the time period in question. In absolute terms, the inflation-adjusted amount of wealth held by the Baby Boomer and Millennial generations at similar ages is about the same. In 1989 (the first year in the Fed's data), the Baby Boomer generation held $4.33T in wealth, which would be $9.5T in today's dol…

Not saying you're wrong, just playing devil's advocate that you could say $4.3T was worth a lot more in 1989 than $7.5T in 2021 based on the outsized pace of inflation for necessary goods to continue living well and growing your personal wealth (homes, healthcare, education). It all depends how you define inflation, and arguably the method to weigh inflation currently does not reflect the growth of those previously mentioned items accurately when compared to their importance.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#27

Post by dougmwne »

hi5eyes wrote: post #12

rise in popularity of FIRE lifestyle with everyone in their late 20s too

At it's heart, FIRE is a reaction to how tenuous, unsustainable and unstable the job market has become in recent years. I don't particularly want to sit on the couch and binge Netflix, but I have such low faith that I'll be able to maintain decent employment that won't destroy my physical and mental health till the age of 67 that FIRE is a completely reasonable thing to aim for. The only unreasonable thing is the core assumption that past performance is a guarantee of future results. Oh well.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#28

Post by mattycakes01 »

paulpauper wrote: post #7
dougmwne wrote: post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

I am sinking in debt thanks to my college, and you think boomers have that problem? No, they don't, and I wonder how old you are considering your views -- I honestly don't think you know any boomers with views like this, considering your only argument is the ones at grocery stores. My grandfather worked at a grocery store for 30 years and has a pension still going to this day. No jobs have pensions anymore. And I bet all those boomers working there have houses, but we Millenials cannot even get a down payment for a home. But sure poor said difficult life of the boomer.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#29

Post by pcbro141 »

LurkingPenguin wrote: post #24
paulpauper wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

> There are plenty of opportunities for young people to get rich. Can confirm. I was directionless in life until I read a comment on a message board about working from home on Google with the potential to earn $5,000/week. I made my first million in a year and a half by investing the earnings from that into meme stocks, pink sheets stocks and SPACs I found on Reddit while living at home with my parents.

Wow. Wagies must HATE you! Where can I click to learn your ONE WEIRD TRICK to early retirement?

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#30

Post by ffwacom »

LurkingPenguin wrote: post #24
paulpauper wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Most boomers and are not rich at all. Go to your local food store and you will probably find plenty of older employees...it's not just 20-somethings who are stuck in crappy professions or in a rut. Many boomers did not save for retirement and face the same problems young people do. Also there are plenty of 20 and 30-year-olds on Reddit (such as on investing and FIRE subs) and hacker news who have sizable…

> There are plenty of opportunities for young people to get rich. Can confirm. I was directionless in life until I read a comment on a message board about working from home on Google with the potential to earn $5,000/week. I made my first million in a year and a half by investing the earnings from that into meme stocks, pink sheets stocks and SPACs I found on Reddit while living at home with my parents.

You lived the NEET dream.
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