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Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

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Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#91

Post by WalterSear »

cobookman wrote: post #26

Sometimes I wonder if this is how Michael Burry and others felt before the housing crash. Right before the housing crash, most the in-industry folks were fully aware it was unsustainable, but they felt it would continue long term. Same goes for tether, majority of those involved in crypto know what they are doing, and the pump-up effect it's had to crypto.

> Same goes for tether, majority of those involved in crypto know what they are doing, and the pump-up effect it's had to crypto.

Not at all.

While those at the executive level have some awareness, the rank and file that I interact with at crypto companies barely understand the tech, and have no knowledge at all of the environment. It's flabbergasting.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#92

Post by atatatat »

rmah wrote: post #84
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

Saudi Arabia has the fifth largest military budget in the world. They spend more than Germany, France or the UK. Their training and readiness probably isn't nearly as good, but to say they have no military is ... odd. More to the point, many nations sell oil for non-USD. It's quite common. Further, the oil trade is a small fraction of international USD movement. The idea that the "petrodollar" is a major factor in in…

> many nations sell oil for non-USD

Name the largest, why obfuscate?

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#93

Post by atatatat »

rmah wrote: post #84
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

Saudi Arabia has the fifth largest military budget in the world. They spend more than Germany, France or the UK. Their training and readiness probably isn't nearly as good, but to say they have no military is ... odd. More to the point, many nations sell oil for non-USD. It's quite common. Further, the oil trade is a small fraction of international USD movement. The idea that the "petrodollar" is a major factor in in…

They have exactly as much military as they purchase from US and Israeli contractors/loan from militaries.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#94

Post by WalterSear »

RealityVoid wrote: post #57
swarnie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think its more that Tether, the coin which provides the most liquidity in the market is an obvious scam. I know too many people are too deeply involved now to accept it...

I think a part of the liquidity is provided by Tether, but the "most of the liquidity" rhetoric rings false. Honestly, crypto might crash now, sure, but long term I am confident we will see a crypto currency emerge as the global reserve currency. It just fits too well for it not to.

70% of *all* crypto trades involve Tether.

How is this not 'most of the liquidity'?

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#95

Post by atatatat »

jcranmer wrote: post #80
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

> Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. Source? Specifically, a source that can pinpoint a statement by a Libyan official in the immediate run-up to the intervention in Libya (i.e., late 2010 or early 2011) indicating a desire to switch to selling oil in euros. The closest I've ever seen to such a source is that one of the cab…

That's all I needed to see.

And apparently it was enough for the Secretary of State's people to see, too.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#96

Post by [deleted] »

jtbayly wrote: post #31
saurik wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto-currencies are selling you a service: linearizing database transactions. This is like arguing that Apple could arbitrarily go to zero because the world would find a different phone to use, and while that's true it seems to miss the point that Apple is unlikely to go to zero until after someone makes a better phone or makes phones obsolete. The world of decentralized database transactions--particularly the turi…

I know tons of people speculating in Ethereum. I know nobody using it as a database.

[deleted]

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#97

Post by javert »

nradov wrote: post #65
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

The US gains some minor benefits by providing the reserve currency used for most international oil trades. However that's only a small fraction of worldwide dollar use. Even if everyone switched to trading oil in euros tomorrow that wouldn't cause a dollar crash. https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/07/debunking-the-dumping-t...

This article is interesting and helpful. So, thanks.

That said, I'm not 100% convinced. If we stop trading oil in dollars, doesn't that reduce the need for countries to keep dollars in reserve? It could be the beginning of a slippery slope.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#98

Post by javert »

rmah wrote: post #84
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

Saudi Arabia has the fifth largest military budget in the world. They spend more than Germany, France or the UK. Their training and readiness probably isn't nearly as good, but to say they have no military is ... odd. More to the point, many nations sell oil for non-USD. It's quite common. Further, the oil trade is a small fraction of international USD movement. The idea that the "petrodollar" is a major factor in in…

Wikipedia says the Saudis have the 9th largest defense budget in the world. They also have a decent sized army, navy and air force. TIL.

I was under the impression that the Saudis literally didn't have a military, because the ruling family was afraid of coups.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#99

Post by javert »

jcranmer wrote: post #80
javert wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. But most importantly, there's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has no military except the US military, and Saudi Arabia prices oil in dollars. It isn't conceivable that they could price oil in another currency and still receive protection from the US (i.e., continue to exist). The US kind of "ha…

> Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. Source? Specifically, a source that can pinpoint a statement by a Libyan official in the immediate run-up to the intervention in Libya (i.e., late 2010 or early 2011) indicating a desire to switch to selling oil in euros. The closest I've ever seen to such a source is that one of the cab…

I haven't taken the time to look for a source. Maybe it really is just a rumor.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#100

Post by jcranmer »

atatatat wrote: post #95
jcranmer wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Besides the Iraq thing someone mentioned, Gaddafi in Libya got taken out right after he spoke about wanting to sell oil in euros. Source? Specifically, a source that can pinpoint a statement by a Libyan official in the immediate run-up to the intervention in Libya (i.e., late 2010 or early 2011) indicating a desire to switch to selling oil in euros. The closest I've ever seen to such a source is that one of the cab…

That's all I needed to see. And apparently it was enough for the Secretary of State's people to see, too.

I... am stunned why people think this in any way supports the narrative of petrodollar-supremacy. Because neither oil nor dollars are implicated in that string of statements at all. Especially GP's summary of the statement--"we bombed Libya because they wanted to price oil in euros instead"--is at complete odds with the implied statement here--"Libya wanted to move from euro-backed currency."

Now it's important to note the context of the source. The diplomatic cables are--effectively--gossip reports. In general, they're not indications that anyone actually believes them, nor indications that their reports are causes for action. A report that a French president is concerned about threats to French suzerainty in its former African colonies is exactly the sort of thing that I'd go "right, I believe that... and I don't care." There is yet, to my knowledge, any evidence that this actually influenced US foreign policy in any manner whatsoever, let alone supports the petrodollar-supremacy narrative.

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