Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
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Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#2> When comparing 2021 larceny theft figures to pre-pandemic 2019 figures, one will find that reports of theft are actually down. From Jan. 1, 2021, to Oct. 10, 2021, there have been 21,842 reports of larceny theft, and there were 31,958 reports over the same period in 2019, which is a 31.6% decrease.
Ok, but this might be very misleading. Wallgreen’s chief complaint is that the laws were changed and police no longer respond to theft under $950. Encouraging small incidence but relatively safe repeated thefts.
So wouldn’t it make complete sense that larceny numbers where police were called, an arrest was made, and a conviction secured would drop if police were instructed to respond only to larger crimes?
If anything I would expect a larger decrease if Walgreen’s is correct.
Not saying this was any plan to “decrease crime by under reporting” or that I can prove the videos I’ve seen of carefree shoplifters weren’t happening previous to the law changes. Just that this might not be the point they are intending to make.
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#3> When comparing 2021 larceny theft figures to pre-pandemic 2019 figures, one will find that reports of theft are actually down. From Jan. 1, 2021, to Oct. 10, 2021, there have been 21,842 reports of larceny theft, and there were 31,958 reports over the same period in 2019, which is a 31.6% decrease. Ok, but this might be very misleading. Wallgreen’s chief complaint is that the laws were changed and police no longer…
It would also be useful to know what the average haul of the thefts pre-pandemic and now.
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#4Walgreen's is not in the business of morality. They are in the business of making money. Walgreen's could say just about anything they wanted about closing up shop in San Francisco and it doesn't really make good business sense for them to say something provocative. It seems to me they're telling the truth.
On the other hand, the San Francisco DA is acting in a highly defensive manner. It's pretty offensive of them and it's pretty clear they're doing a bad job.
Worse, the San Francisco DA is helping create a false dichotomy between safety and compassion. I think both are possible; the SF DA, however, does not seem competent enough to offer either.
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#5> "They are saying that’s the primary reason, but I also think when a place is not generating revenue, and when they’re saturated — S.F. has a lot of Walgreens locations all over the city — so I do think that there are other factors that come into play,” Mayor London Breed told reporters Wednesday.
There are dozens of videos of theft in SF Walgreens captured on YouTube. Can someone explain to the mayor that your revenue is going to decrease when criminals are walking out with garbage bags full of merchandise?
Per typical, SF Democrats are trying to cover up their underreporting of crimes.
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#6the article is right, it's all about narrative, and these "optics" make SF politicians look bad
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#7> When comparing 2021 larceny theft figures to pre-pandemic 2019 figures, one will find that reports of theft are actually down. From Jan. 1, 2021, to Oct. 10, 2021, there have been 21,842 reports of larceny theft, and there were 31,958 reports over the same period in 2019, which is a 31.6% decrease. Ok, but this might be very misleading. Wallgreen’s chief complaint is that the laws were changed and police no longer…
Walgreen's are not perceiving local support for their stores. They are not alone. There is a Walgreen's in the Castro and it is likely from my reading they share a lot of the complaints in this article [0] which says law enforcement is no longer to be counted on to help.
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#8> "They are saying that’s the primary reason, but I also think when a place is not generating revenue, and when they’re saturated — S.F. has a lot of Walgreens locations all over the city — so I do think that there are other factors that come into play,” Mayor London Breed told reporters Wednesday. https://youtu.be/2jrnhaLzCqA There are dozens of videos of theft in SF Walgreens captured on YouTube. Can someone explai…
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#9> When comparing 2021 larceny theft figures to pre-pandemic 2019 figures, one will find that reports of theft are actually down. From Jan. 1, 2021, to Oct. 10, 2021, there have been 21,842 reports of larceny theft, and there were 31,958 reports over the same period in 2019, which is a 31.6% decrease. Ok, but this might be very misleading. Wallgreen’s chief complaint is that the laws were changed and police no longer…
It would also be useful to know what the average haul of the thefts pre-pandemic and now.
This, I think, is the core issue. The typical theft before the changes could have been of trivially low values. As soon as people know that the strongest negative incentives only kick in after a total value (e.g. 1000 USD) they may start to "optimize" for that.
I mean - if a person would shoplift item A; they may reason that there is very little additional negative incentive to not steal B, C...as well - to get closer to that threshold.
This makes sense even if you assume that thefts of total value under the threshold are being always reported (as commented elsewhere here). Lower numbers of instances, higher value of theft.
Then again, maybe there are underlying mechanisms in the motivations of shoplifting that make this completely wrong. I'd accept and appreciate the input of someone with expertise in this subject
Re: Analysis of Walgreens' stated reasoning for closing SF stores
#10> "They are saying that’s the primary reason, but I also think when a place is not generating revenue, and when they’re saturated — S.F. has a lot of Walgreens locations all over the city — so I do think that there are other factors that come into play,” Mayor London Breed told reporters Wednesday. https://youtu.be/2jrnhaLzCqA There are dozens of videos of theft in SF Walgreens captured on YouTube. Can someone explai…
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
So stores should just accept being stolen from, creating highly unsafe situations for employees and customers, in the middle of economic conditions already hurting profit and supply chains?
Or maybe the stores should hire private security, sufficiently armed to deter theft? That's probably a minimum cost of $500k per year for wages and insurance and licensing.
I'm truly curious what the endgame is with this line of bleeding heart absurdity.