Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors • Hacker News Board

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#11

Post by amazingman » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 4:49 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

He's making much longer-term assessments about the evolving market. You seem to be calling it a "total blowout" from the perspective of a reality that hasn't actually happened yet.

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#12

Post by jfoutz » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 4:55 PM UTC

So, Verizon needs to hire some coders and get cracking? It took Apple and Google years to produce a good modern phone OS. Palm took a shot at their own os, and as near as i can tell, they're gone now.

Phone manufacturers made their choice a decade ago. They picked closed, complex, developer hostile platforms. Now, it seems, that was a mistake. Phone manufacturers get to fund Apple, Google, or Microsoft's, move into their markets.

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#13

Post by cooldeal » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:02 PM UTC

ugh wrote: post #8

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

“Nutter”? Really? Being wrong doesn’t make anyone a “nutter”.

Maybe nutter is a strong word, but still, there is an obsession with taking numbers and 'facts' and trying to twist them into spin for Apple with dodgy long winded 'analysis/predictions' that doesn't stand five seconds of reason(except from the big Apple fanbase), all the while still trying to sound objective...

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#14

Post by ellyagg » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:04 PM UTC

recoiledsnake wrote: post #5

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

While I usually don't agree with the convoluted and twisted logic of Asymco, Gruber and Marco (they do get a lot of undeserved traction on HN thanks to its big section of Apple fans), I think this time he does have a point. It will be a tightrope walk for Google about who and how to share the longterm plans of the OS with etc.

Undeserved traction? Isn't Apple performing outrageously well with consumers and as a company? Were they not the largest capitalized company in the world at one point recently? If Apple were not being reported on here heavily (and positively), a site devoted to the intersection of hacking and business, that would be awfully weird, no? As far as I know, developer revenue from iPhone apps still dwarfs Android. Shouldn't that be pretty interesting to a community more than partly devoted to making money off of programming?

If anything, I suggest the extremely large number of Google employees who participate here swings the bias the other way. I found it exceedingly odd that--regarding a story about a company paying $12 billion to buy another company, the type of move that is normally considered incredibly risky, and the type of move which does not have a great track record in the annals of corporate history--after making it 3/4 of the way down the comment thread here on HN, there was virtually no criticism. Really? This move is a slam dunk?

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#15

Post by hollerith » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:05 PM UTC

recoiledsnake wrote: post #6

hollerith wrote: post #4

Google could shut down Motorola Mobility's hardware business, keeping its patents.

Are you serious?

Yes: it would alleviate the concerns of other other Android licensees, who currently own about 45% of the smartphone market.

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#16

Post by benologist » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:06 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

It's just one of many, many websites that makes their money by pandering to a niche.

It's tasteless, but profitable.

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#17

Post by rsynnott » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:11 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

He was largely right on profitability, no?

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#18

Post by rsynnott » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:15 PM UTC

cooldeal wrote: post #10

barista wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides android vendors aren't really profitable by big margins. Motorola in fact has continued losing money for past few years even after introducing android.

>HTC announced that its first quarter 2011 profits were up by a staggering 191 per cent to $511 million from the same time last year. Revenue figures were not too shabby either, showing 174 per cent growth, meaning that profit growth outstripped revenue growth, something that is particularly desirable on any balance sheet. Do you get your news from Apple centered sites and blogs and the comments there? There seems to…

See here, however: http://www.intomobile.com/2011/05/02/apple-has-50-profit-sha...

While HTC's profits are unquestionably growing, their profit share actually declined a bit; remember it's a very rapidly expanding industry. Motorola Mobility, SE and LG are loss-making or close to it. Only Samsung is in a really strong position.

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#19

Post by cooldeal » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:20 PM UTC

benologist wrote: post #16

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year: http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... His key arguments where that: * Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple. * Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&Meego for someone else…

It's just one of many, many websites that makes their money by pandering to a niche. It's tasteless, but profitable.

>It's tasteless, but profitable.

The problem is that they are bandied about as independent opinion and analysis.

Gruber sells ads on his RSS feeds, which seem to cost thousands of dollars each, thanks to advertising by iOS apps. No wonder he plays to his fanbase with the pro-Apple and anti-Google/Android/MS rhetoric. He must be laughing all the way to the bank while thinking up his next 'The precisely perfect placement of the Chair at Macworld' and 'Dirty Percent' article. Also, he gets invited to Apple events, which may quickly disappear if he gets too critical(see Gizmodo).

Re: Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

#20

Post by recoiledsnake » Mon, Aug 15, 2011, 5:23 PM UTC

hollerith wrote: post #15

recoiledsnake wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious?

Yes: it would alleviate the concerns of other other Android licensees, who currently own about 45% of the smartphone market.

Sounds very unlikely. If it was that they would've have announced it by now. Or the headline would be 'Google gets joint licensing(and right to sue) for Motorola patents for $6 billion'.