Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#571

Post by Covzire » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:30 AM UTC

detaro wrote: post #506

spookthesunset wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that to this day people still trot out “4% kill rate” and make their kids wear a mask for a disease a kid isn’t even remotely at risk for… my trust in public health is below zero. Not once have these people done anything to calm people or tell them good news. Not a single time. It is disgusting how horribly these public health “experts” treat us.

> people still trot out “4% kill rate” Which health authority or public health expert is claiming that today and hasn't shared updates with better data (=good news)? Yes, some people still bring that, but that's not because evil experts hide the true data from them.

I think you discount the idea of "evil experts" too quickly. The day Joe Biden took over the presidency, CNN stopped listing death counts for COVID. The deaths increased in 2021 precipitously, had it been Trump you know they would have probably used bigger fonts, colors etc to drive the narrative.

There are evil people and some of them are in control of various parts of the narrative and they use that control for their own ends.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#572

Post by eightysixfour » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:31 AM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #230

You know who doesn't try to hide this stuff from people? Bad actors. Conspiracy theorists, scammers, straight up liars. So you've got on one hand "the experts" who are being vague and seemingly not wanting to tell you anything, and then on the other hand you've got the crazies who will tell you whatever you want to hear. It's something that is increasingly frustrating me about the vaccines. The vaccines have become a…

> Covid sucks. Yes, it almost certainly leaked out of a lab in China.

> Yes it was gain of function research. Yes this is the worst industrial disaster in the history of the planet.

There are plenty of factual, logical arguments for and against a lab leak and there is a decent chance we will never know. Suggesting the matter is decided is a lie in its own right.

> We aren't sure if the masks are actually effective but we think it's worth it to try them.

Sure looks like they’re effective in a massive study: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02457-y

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#573

Post by SkyMarshal » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:32 AM UTC

cjsplat wrote: post #378

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

> there was never data that said "masks don't work for the public" Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public. For example, https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... And there are many others - that was just an easy one I found today. Some similar studies even showed an increase in flu transmission among the subject population wearing masks. There were plenty o…

> Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public.

... (a year of arguing and studies ensues while a pandemic of a new and not-well-understood virus spreads out of control) ...

> The new data was that ... even modest mask technology is a good source transmission interrupter, and that the contagion window is well in advance of active symptoms.

A wasted year and all that rigamarole just to figure out what Asian societies have known for decades, and common sense untainted by politics should easily conclude. Masks are a cheap and easy way of reducing airborne transmission.

The US and other Western countries that botched this really need to learn a few things:

- how to learn from other societies that have more recent experience with certain things like airbone pandemics than we do.

- how to do better cost-risk-benefit analysis. Masks are an extremely cheap, easy and minimally invasive means of mitigating potentially serious and vastly more costly systemic bio-risks.

This NIH attitude, and notion that we have to spend a year doing studies to figure out what a little back-of-the-napkin risk analysis shows and other societies already know from first-hand experience, is absurd.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#574

Post by autoexec » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:34 AM UTC

throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #561

wolverine876 wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will listen to a reasonable, nuanced discussion. They won't listen to someone who hates them. The victim argument is standard rhetoric, but they can choose to do what they want. For one thing, I haven't seen much hate at all. Could you give examples of it on a significant scale? Some leaders expressing hate? Mostly, I see resignation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/

Interestingly, that subreddit has convinced some people to get vaccinated. Otherwise it's basically https://old.reddit.com/r/leopardsatemyface (covid edition) with a lot of venting frustration at folks who willfully spread the virus and the misinformation that keeps it spreading.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#575

Post by rc2634 » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:35 AM UTC

JamisonM wrote: post #564

rc2634 wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The calculus is different for tens of millions people who acquired natural immunity from previous infections before the vaccines even existed. I am one of them. There is no good reason for me to take the risk with the vaccines because it will only increase my immunity marginally.

I think the evidence available today contradicts this position. Vaccine immunity is much better than naturally acquired immunity, and natural immunity plus vaccine immunity is much better still.

I am sorry to say, but you’re mistaken. That might have been the case before the Delta variant but not anymore. Natural immunity is definitely better against the Delta variant.

https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#576

Post by nielsbot » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:38 AM UTC

danhak wrote: post #317

nielsbot wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't have to be rational. Vaccines mandates are already common for school children, nurses, (and maybe teachers, but I'm not sure about that one) The rage over masks (and things like "CRT") is being intentionally stoked to win elections. The plan is to make it an us vs them issue. Again, it's intentional and cynical. If you stoke rage about mask wearing (and vaccines) you can position yourself as also being a v…

Government-imposed vaccine mandates were never common for access to private establishments, as is now the case in NYC and LA Philosophically speaking, It's one thing for the government to say you must be vaccinated to attend public school. It's quite another thing for them to say you must be vaccinated to enter a privately-owned gym.

I have a child attending private school and vaccinations are required by the state. (CA) So that’s at least one exception to that.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#577

Post by virtuous_signal » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:41 AM UTC

kccqzy wrote: post #330

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

The goal of public health officials is to reduce the overall amount of deaths / infections / disease spread. The goal is not to ensure maximum survivability for a specific individual. The mask guidance made perfect sense in this light. For the overall benefit of the society, masks were prioritized for health care professionals rather than the general public, in the face of limited supply. But of course wearing a mask…

I think of myself as someone who "follows the science" and the fact you present is what keeps me skeptical of expert advice. Another example was when the question of which vaccine to get was being asked. Any doctor who knew they were being interviewed, said to get the first one that's available to you. I can see this making sense from a population standpoint, but if I'm personally not trying to get COVID, then of course I'm willing to wait some amount of time to get Moderna/Pfizer rather than J&J. It's just like being told "don't panic", and I honestly don't know if there's any resolution that doesn't involve light deception.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#578

Post by dragonwriter » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:42 AM UTC

nielsbot wrote: post #576

danhak wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government-imposed vaccine mandates were never common for access to private establishments, as is now the case in NYC and LA Philosophically speaking, It's one thing for the government to say you must be vaccinated to attend public school. It's quite another thing for them to say you must be vaccinated to enter a privately-owned gym.

I have a child attending private school and vaccinations are required by the state. (CA) So that’s at least one exception to that.

> I have a child attending private school and vaccinations are required by the state. (CA)

No, they aren't.

CA has announced that it will have a school student vaccine mandate, once vaccines for children are fully approved, and not earlier than next school year in any case.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#579

Post by waterhouse » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:42 AM UTC

titzer wrote: post #468

cjsplat wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was never data that said "masks don't work for the public" Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public. For example, https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... And there are many others - that was just an easy one I found today. Some similar studies even showed an increase in flu transmission among the subject population wearing masks. There were plenty o…

IMHO it was just a stupid call, because in the face of conflicting data, it would have been a better default option to recommend masks. That's easier to walk back than "oops, we were lying because we don't trust you rubes enough not to hoard, even when explicitly instructed not to hoard." In the beginning of the pandemic I, with effectively zero sewing skills, made a cloth mask out of spare clothing. They could have…

> They could have had an infomercial showing people the most effective cloth mask designs they could sew at home.

In fact, eventually they did something like this. The Surgeon General of the United States produced a video showing how one could make a quick-and-dirty mask with a t-shirt and rubber bands... dated April 4 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI1GxNjAjlw

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#580

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 2:45 AM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

[deleted]