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Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

imperial.ac.uk

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Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#401
post #100

We're still a very long way off. Sabine Hossenfelder has a good explanation of what's wrong with most reporting on progress toward fusion: http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2021/10/how-close-is-nuclea... edit: not sure why this was downvoted, it's directly relevant and the video and transcript discuss this experiment. It quotes Arthur Turrell: "This phenomenal breakthrough brings us tantalisingly close to a demonstrat…

>not sure why this was downvoted

Perhaps because spreading the agenda-oriented opinion about fusion of someone who knows exactly as much about fusion as a high-schooler maybe isn't the best?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28781178

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Internal combustion piston engines also do intermittent combustion. If you were to make a power plant based off of this, you would need dozens of these per second (and much more efficient lasers and a tritium breeding liquid lithium metal jacket and… a lot of other stuff).

The capsules are tiny and do not generate usefull amount of energy. ITER is planned to generate 500,000,000W. Thats actually usefull

1 MJ is enough to vaporize roughly half a liter of water that started at room temperature. That's nothing to sneaze at. Obviously you would need to do with a high rate (e.g. once per second) in order for it to be viable for power production. No reason the lasers couldn't do that. The challenge is making the pellets cost effective at scale. Currently, they cost something like $10k each.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#403
post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

Natural gas is only inexpensive because of fracking. With fracking in the USA at least the people involved can set up an LLC that dissolves after the well runs out. They are not required to disclose the contents of the fracking wastewater fluid. It gets pumped back down underground where it could dissipate into the rest of the water system. These people claim that it's safe for decades when our computer models can't…

Tldr; externalized costs of fossil fuels aren't being fully considered by the economy.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's also wrong about there being a water *shortage* in California. There is water *diversion*, designed by environmentalists to save animals, that strips farmers of water.

There is a water diversion indeed, to moronic growing of almonds in a desert! Where farmers claim more water 'rights' than physically exists. It's like you guys looked at the Aral sea disaster created by USSR and said 'hold my beer' These crops are dead, it's just a question of time, even if you diverted every drop of water and leave households to die. The sooner we accept it the better. http://www.ciesin.org/docs/00…

Building households in a desert isn't much better than farming in a desert....

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but aren't fossil fuels also subsidized? Haven't the costs been reduced due to the economies of scale and time? Are the environmental downsides not considered part of the cost? I get it, renewables are still more expensive, but are they really doomed to trap more people in poverty? Couldn't one argue that the unbalanced economic systems are the primary thing that traps people in poverty and the cost of energy i…

> Sure, but aren't fossil fuels also subsidized? Yes, that has to do nothing with my point. > Haven't the costs been reduced due to the economies of scale and time? That's a sunken cost fallacy. What we have already spent doesn't matter. What matters is what we choose today , and what consequences does it bring. > Are the environmental downsides not considered part of the cost? Off course, that's the main issue. Envi…

Thanks for explaining it, this makes a lot more sense. But isn't reality more like... option C? Which is work towards B while still relying on A to fill the gaps?

Does moving towards B also produce growth because it's a process that will take decades?

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Of course, the consequences of climate change are billions cast into abject poverty" The only way to end climate change is to have a serious debate about population control. But no one wants difficult debates (at least people that matter). Nuclear fission once pulled off will make things much much worse. I foresee a population explosion into areas once uninhabitable.

a really serious conversation about population control is an armed conflict and only a fool will think otherwise. I think you can choose to not have children, but if you want to force others to not have children, prepare to be at war because that's what it will come to.

[deleted]

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that, 100% props for the experience. And I totally respect it. The GP question was "what makes fusion different", and the only thing that is different really is the economics of how much it costs vs how much energy you get out. Energy out is, by definition, the amount of heat differential you can generate. Cost is, again by definition, the total operating cost of the heat source. So this is where the author and…

I will admit that I'm not an engineer of any relevant area here. So I offer this only as a matter of general judgment & experience, which you are welcome to say "does not apply." (But please say why it doesn't.) It's always been my impression that building things on a huge, factory-wide scale is a radically different problem than building a demo, or even reasoning about it. The latter is what you are all doing. As lo…

Communication is a difficult thing, especially written communication. I work proactively to get better at it when the opportunities to do so arise.

In your initial response, and in this one, what I "hear" is that what you heard was somehow either dismissive or disrespectful of the experience the OP brought to the table. I am interested in understanding what it was about my words that gave you that impression. I do understand that reality is very complicated and building systems as ones $dayjob in a competitive environment gives you a depth of knowledge that is unmatched.

What I heard in the OP comment was a question, "What makes fusion different?" and in this case the context was why might it be a step change versus other things (some of which the author was involved in) have not gotten traction. And the specific driver was how to compete with costs from extractive technologies like natural gas that are quite mature.

I shared my point of view and reasoning from the perspective that I expected the ratio of the plant construction and operation cost relative to the energy output to be much higher than pretty much any other technology so it's LCOE will be lower.

Do I know that to be the case? No I don't. Can I reason to that position from first principles? I think so, and calling me out on my reasoning as pfdeitz has done a couple of times in this thread is awesome (the most relevant for this thread being that so far we only know how to make fusion plants with a much lower energy/m3 ratio than say nuclear plants)

To your comment about 'whom to believe' I would say I'm not asking you to believe me (and I hope that wasn't a take away from my responses). I was sharing how I thought fusion was different, others have other takes on this, and nobody knows for sure because well it doesn't exist yet. I am curious though, if you feel okay sharing it, if there is anxiety with your belief system.

When I am presented with information and I don't know how much confidence to put into it, I often do similar things which is to look at the source, and to consider how the source arrived at that belief. Ideally I like to hear how they got to that belief which probably comes from reading a bunch of scientific papers that are basically one long essay that use the form: "This is what we believe, this is why we believe it, and this is the evidence we have to support our beliefs." But even in a paper I still hold that belief "lightly." If you see me passing such things on it will usually be of the form, "here is a reference to a paper or article I've read that posits this." As opposed to some definitive statement of truth. For me, I'm not invested in being "right".

I can easily say that most of the best conversations I've had, started with "Chuck you are completely wrong about that and here's why ..." I love conversations like that because it means I'm likely to learn something new, and every time we re-examine what we "know" we often come away with a better understanding of the limits of what we "know" and what we "think" or hypothesize.

Throughout this conversation it has been my intent to be clear that these are things I "think" based on what are, to me, comparable but "solved" problems. Still there are a lot of unknown unknowns such as it is and everything I think could easily be invalidated by one of them. I am always on the lookout for this sort of information. It helps keep me grounded.

Always working on improving communications and critical thinking skills and always open to feedback.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your analogy falls flat because we're still decades away from a functional fusion power plant. "Why breed faster horses now when maybe my grandchildren will get to zoom around in cars?"

The 1000 miles road starts with a first step, and it's not like we can't pursue several approaches at once. People like grandparent poster suggest us drop everything and concentrate on the idea he likes best. That is a very bad and harmful idea.

No one is saying we shouldn't invest in exploring fusion. But we shouldn't sit on our hands on the interim. We need to invest heavily in the best alternative resource available right now till such time as fusion is a viable alternative to solar.

Keep in mind horses and cars co-existed as mainstream transportation choices right up till the end of world war 2.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#410
post #397
post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The laser produced 1.3 MJ from fusion in an instant using only around 250 KJ of laser energy. We have already created machines that fuse hydrogen and from only 3 KJ of electricity, produce 10^10 MJs of energy out of it in an instant. I never got the appeal of the laser experiments, they must be covers for weapon research.

It's not a cover, it's an explicit purpose of the facility: NIF uses lasers to heat and compress a small amount of hydrogen fuel with the goal of inducing nuclear fusion reactions. NIF's mission is to achieve fusion ignition with high energy gain, and to support nuclear weapon maintenance and design by studying the behavior of matter under the conditions found within nuclear weapons

Like many other advancements, civilian use has been a nice side effect of the primary driver of advancement.
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