Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#421

Post by PeterisP » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:45 PM UTC

_-david-_ wrote: post #399

archagon wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When your political opponent is an unintelligent charlatan who can’t speak two words without spouting a lie, then perhaps some caution would be warranted where public health is concerned.

Last I checked Trump had nothing to do with the vaccine other than helping fund it (Operation Warpseed). If you think Trump could impact the safety then I assume you think the FDA is corrupt which means we shouldn't trust them when they say it is safe now?

Back when that was the debate, Trump was pushing FDA to "accelerate" approval i.e. do it before the studies analysis was done. Now we know how those studies went, but at that point nobody did yet (and they might have revealed e.g. a lack of efficiency), so yes, if FDA did issue an approval back then then they should have been treated as corrupt for breaching their own process in a way that can impact the safety; and that is why the concern was (IMHO reasonably) raised by various Democrat leaders. Heck, Trump was on record asking officials to alter election results, of course he could also try to overrule FDA if he chose to and wasn't loudly opposed.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#422

Post by whimsicalism » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:47 PM UTC

sjwalter wrote: post #420

whimsicalism wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll go mask off: yeah, I think "nudging" is probably necessary in a country where 45% of people legitimately believe in ghosts and 30% believe they've interacted with one before. You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves.

I think the point of view that nearly half of your fellow citizens aren't capable of making good choices is pretty silly. I think sane citizens supporting patriarchal rulers, especially when those rulers have proven themselves basically selfish and untrustworthy, their shameless behaviour openly on display for decades, is super surprising. By the way, that's Thaler's own description: patriarchal. He views the ruling…

Patriarchal? Are you sure you don't mean paternal?

> why you think they're qualified in any way to do this nudging? Why do you think the outcomes they want are going to be good for you personally?

I think publicly sanctioned (ie. elected) rulers should craft policy that alters people's behavior in positive ways.

This is the underpinning of representative democracy, we trust our representatives to make more thoughtful decisions on issues than we do ourselves, because they have more time to think on it and it is their full-time job. If we don't trust them to do that, we don't vote for them.

Of course, that can break down - if for instance, the primary thing deciding elections is a bunch of idiots voting based on TV ads.

But the problem there is with the representative process, not with the concept of "nudging."

> Why do you think the outcomes they want are going to be good for you personally?

I don't always want outcomes that are good for me personally, I want outcomes that I consider to be good and just.

I don't think we always get that, but I think "nudging" can certainly be a tool to realize those outcomes.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#423

Post by sjwalter » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:48 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #412

cat_plus_plus wrote: post #356

How about the biggest dishonesty - lack of admission that not everyone is at the same risk and that lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society? Young children are not getting critical development years back. Healthy 20 somethings only have limited time to date, party and have fun before being saddled with adult responsibilities forever. Most of shattered local businesses ar…

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

The goal of a meaningfully-lead life is not to lengthen it as much as possible.

The goal of the government is not to minimize the number of deaths at any cost.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#424

Post by whimsicalism » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:49 PM UTC

sjwalter wrote: post #423

whimsicalism wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

The goal of a meaningfully-lead life is not to lengthen it as much as possible. The goal of the government is not to minimize the number of deaths at any cost.

> The goal of the government is not to minimize the number of deaths at any cost.

Maybe not at any cost, but yeah I think there should be a pretty strong presumption towards improving people's welfare and not killing them.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#425

Post by notahacker » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:50 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #343

notahacker wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were dying from self-administered HCQ as a supposed prophylactic because politicians seeking to downplay the severity of COVID were contradicting their health officials and insisting that it would work miracles and should be available outside hospitals long before that reprehensible fake "study" came out. And yes, they were ridiculed for it by certain sections of the media, and rightly so. That "study" certain…

> People were dying from self-administered HCQ as a supposed prophylactic Yes, "people are dying" is the favored rallying cry for any number of poorly considered, knee-jerk reactions to unfortunate events. It's a big country. People die from lots of things every day, including a staggering number of people who die from overdoses from innocuous medications. A surprising number of these people poison themselves with su…

> and we shouldn't engage in censorship of factual information because "people are dying".

It's not 'censorship of factual information' for a private service to choose to put health warnings against or delete fact free claims of HCQ as a miracle cure. Indeed "healthy living" supplement hucksters are ridiculed and kicked off platforms on a regular basis, even when some of the claims they make about "healthy living" have a tenuous connection to fact.

We don't change the parameters of science to pretend that people insisting that a pandemic isn't a threat because self-administering a moderately dangerous drug is effective prophlaxis are presenting "factual information" because the people doing so are supporters of politicians rather than pill vendors.

All of which is tangential to my original point which is that "HCQ is a miracle cure" became a meme entirely divorced from the tentative (and probably manipulated) evidence of therapeutic benefit well before attempts to shut it down or the Surgisphere "study", so I can't imagine why more blame is apportioned to them than the public figures making evidence-free claims about it from the very beginning.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#426

Post by PeterisP » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:51 PM UTC

themaninthedark wrote: post #372

takeda wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point no businesses US were closed because of covid, but Chinese businesses were unproportionally hurt because president called covid a "china virus". You're trying to smear somebody that they are making it political while they are actually trying to unpoliticize it. This was before emrgency was declared. And only 8 people were confirmed in California. Check the timeline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin…

Again, "Not me and my side, it was all the other guys." The Washington Post reported that six other countries had restricted travel from China before January 30, six did so on January 31, and by the time U.S. travel restrictions became effective on February 2, 38 other countries had taken action before or at the same time as the U.S. restrictions. In what universe does telling people to get out and gather in groups m…

IIRC Italy had a similar issue, where authorities initially tried to encourage gatherings to downplay Covid and made public events themselves for PR, there was a "Milan doesn't stop" campaign, etc - while (in hindsight) those were the key weeks where very rapid spread was happening, causing thousands of deaths afterwards

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#427

Post by lolsal » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:51 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #414

sjwalter wrote: post #411

Dick Thaler, who won a Nobel prize in econ, wrote a book called Nudge (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book for more info), which I'd bet good money Fauci and the entire public policy elite have read and internalized. The book is basically about how the ruling class should think about structuring policy and messaging to create the outcomes they desire--"choice architecture". Thaler's work describes how publ…

I'll go mask off: yeah, I think "nudging" is probably necessary in a country where 45% of people legitimately believe in ghosts and 30% believe they've interacted with one before. You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves.

> You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves

It's risky to dismiss people that make different choices than you as idiots not being able to make the best choices for themselves. 'Best' here is entirely relative.

For example, I know (in real life), folks that are making the choice to not submit to vaccine mandates because that aligns with their principals which is a preferred choice for them than surviving into old age. It is utter arrogance to argue they are not making the best choice for themselves.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#428

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:51 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #326

sb52191 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society? People who want their fellow citizens to work toward greater goods collectively?

I guess we don't believe in disruption of suboptimal establishment forces anymore on HN.

I think you are missing the point.

Yes, lying governments don't deserve to be trusted. It is still unfortunate that the damage done may be so severe that for some people it will be irreparable. This isn't an absolution of the establishment, or a condemnation of those who lost trust.

Increased barriers to developing better establishments in the future are still regrettable.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#429

Post by sjwalter » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #422

sjwalter wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point of view that nearly half of your fellow citizens aren't capable of making good choices is pretty silly. I think sane citizens supporting patriarchal rulers, especially when those rulers have proven themselves basically selfish and untrustworthy, their shameless behaviour openly on display for decades, is super surprising. By the way, that's Thaler's own description: patriarchal. He views the ruling…

Patriarchal? Are you sure you don't mean paternal? > why you think they're qualified in any way to do this nudging? Why do you think the outcomes they want are going to be good for you personally? I think publicly sanctioned (ie. elected) rulers should craft policy that alters people's behavior in positive ways. This is the underpinning of representative democracy, we trust our representatives to make more thoughtful…

I did mean paternalism, thank you for the correction.

I agree with you that nudging can certainly be a tool to realize outcomes.

I seem to have a disagreement with you in that it seems obvious to me that governments across the world have zero to offer in the way of visions for a future that are at all positive for me personally, my family, my community.

I think our institutions are not worthy of trust, and I think there is ample evidence that every major institutional category is captured and serves the interests of a tiny elite. You said 'mask off' in your earlier comment, and I think that's interesting because from where I'm sitting the mask is off, but it's the rulers' masks--they clearly view the common citizenry as a threat and a nuisance, and their goals have nothing to do with our wellbeing. Whatever stated goals they have are two-faced and half-hearted.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#430

Post by spookthesunset » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:54 PM UTC

tinus_hn wrote: post #210

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

The reality still is, if you don’t carefully specify the kind of masks people are supposed to use (or even specify they have to use non-medical masks!) the effect, if any, is so small it isn’t measurable. It’s just such a great virtue signal that people keep clinging to it.

It’s a damn religion at this point. The masks most people wear do basically nothing. Wearing an effective mask (for some value of “effective”) is not comfortable at all!