Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab • Hacker News Board

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#61

Post by rfrey » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 4:56 PM UTC

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada.

Geothermal energy is the same: sustainable, long-life electricity with no "fuel" costs, but it costs 2-3x as much to build a geothermal plant (in most areas, depends on geology) as e.g. a natural gas turbine powered plant, so the overall cost of electricity is much higher and you can't get financing.

How is fusion different? The fuel will be free and unlimited, but the "levelized cost of electricity", dominated by the capital cost of the plant, will still be much higher than other sources of electricity. I don't think there's a world -- even one where the onerous regulations go away and a market price on carbon is available -- where the LCOE of fusion power is less than that from natural gas, or even close.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#62

Post by hinkley » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 4:56 PM UTC

HPsquared wrote: post #52

ph4 wrote: post #46

So is the goal just to fuel our current patterns of consumption and development with fusion, or nuclear, or whatever?

Would more cheap (in all ways) energy be a bad thing? I don't think so, people pay money for that sort of thing.

Heat pollution. Green house gasses are not the only way to cook ourselves.

Though there are some people working on beaming heat into space, I suspect they haven’t fully accounted for heat absorption by atmospheric dust.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#63

Post by pontifier » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:04 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

As someone trying to build a fusion reactor of my own design, I worry about this myself. I just have to believe that advancing the state of the art is a good thing, not a bad thing, and that my efforts will pay off.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#64

Post by stkdump » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:05 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

You increase carbon taxes, outlaw fossil fuels and subsidize alternatives. This kind of innovation doesn't work without government intervention.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#65

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

Another way of asking this question is how long will the capital investment last? And what are the upkeep costs?

Once we better understand this, governments would have the decision making expertise and an understanding of timescales involved to see if it is a worthwhile investment.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#66

Post by orangepurple » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

You can't put a price on energy independence in a free market economy. Energy independence is a military objective and a matter of national security. The costs are difficult to put in perspective.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#67

Post by cyberpsybin » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

tehbeard wrote: post #58

I don't know what has happened more, nuclear fusion "breakthroughs", or Voyager "leaving the solar system"...

because nuclear fusion is an endgame; it going to take centuries

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#68

Post by 542458 » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

I’ve wondered this as well.

There is an argument that we’re dramatically underestimating the global warming impact of natural gas by underestimating/ignoring the impact of leakage.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#69

Post by vilhelm_s » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #61

Meta-question about fusion energy -something I don't understand about the movement. I spent a few years as CTO of a company providing heat-to-electricity plants. We financed and built them off high-heat plants like natural gas turbines. The "fuel" was heat going up the stack - so it was essentially free. We still couldn't compete with conventional electricity plants, even with a $30/tonne price on carbon in Canada. G…

Natural gas plants are cheap but they cause global warming, so soon we will not be able to use them. For example, the U.S. target is to have zero carbon emissions from electricity generation by 2035, and zero carbon emissions at all by 2050.

Re: Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab

#70

Post by HPsquared » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

hinkley wrote: post #62

HPsquared wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would more cheap (in all ways) energy be a bad thing? I don't think so, people pay money for that sort of thing.

Heat pollution. Green house gasses are not the only way to cook ourselves. Though there are some people working on beaming heat into space, I suspect they haven’t fully accounted for heat absorption by atmospheric dust.

It'd be interesting to ponder whether such a "heat ray" would work, in terms of thermodynamics. Some kind of heat pump, the hot side of which is hot enough to radiate into space? I can't imagine that having a net cooling effect when considering the Carnot efficiency of a refrigeration cycle. Maybe a giant ice machine in space? (Then again, any ice would probably create more heating than cooling as it enters our gravity well or deorbits). Anyone have any ideas?