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Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

thepointsguy.com

451–460 of 627 posts

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#451
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> our operation has become brittle and subject to massive failures under the slightest pressure I somehow notice a lot of this lately, in many different areas. I wonder if there isn't a common cause behind those. Is it just covid or something bigger?

It is large due to corporations taking on lean-business models from MBAs over the last decade+. When a business runs lean, it becomes more fragile to disruptions. Unfortunately due to our economic system, there is a semi-regular boon-bust cycle, so if it wasn't COVID, it would have been something else that kicks the stool out from under the legs of these corporations. In the past this wasn't as big as an issue becaus…

As an MBA with BSEE/MSEE, this is exactly correct. Too many take the degree and training as a blindly followed cookbook rather than just "ideas to think about and think of trying". It SHOULD BE the latter!!

The "religion" of profit maximization and cost minimization has a price - it's NOT GLOBALLY OPTIMAL OVER TIME for the survival of the organization (profits, anti-fragility, etc.) nor for the larger system of a national or global economy.

Mathematically, flat, non-cycle economic systems are IMPOSSIBLE. You can never achieve it WITHOUT introducing systemic instability because you are eliminating ALL the information REQUIRED to maintain feedback control and you are removing agility of the system. Once the error signal goes to zero, the system is 100% out of control! It's open loop. Then any "environmental" change can tip the entire system over where that could be a competitor, other nation or "act of God" disruption.

And this is what happens when you profit maximize/cost minimize to its ultimate limit. And on the way to that extreme, you are increasingly make the system more brittle and the probabilities of failure increase.

Re having all people being "productive", the reality of things like Price's Law also make reliability worse as an organization (corporation, government, etc.) grows.

Price's Law says that the number of people who actually do most of the work is proportional to the square root of the organization size. In the case of supply chains, most of the people who are "assuring system reliability" actually aren't and generally are incapable of doing so anyway. It's a reality due to network effects (adverse ones but the same dynamic as the good ones - you can't control or differentiate the two).

Note you can take it to the other extreme: not worrying about profits is just as bad if not worse. Socialism/Collectivism doesn't work either for similar reasons actually.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#452
post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really MBAs, more like "business rules cult". MBAs are just the primary vehicle through which these viral rules of operation have spread. For example, when I worked in semiconductor manufacturing in the 90s you'd constantly hear at management training seminars "reduce inventory because it costs money". Also "offshore because it's cheaper" and "outsource activities that aren't core to the business". Every sin…

> use 3rd party SaaS services for everything OTOH didn't Facebook just demonstrate why building everything in-house is dangerous?

Dangerous is a word that doesn't actively justify trade-offs. With SaaS offerings, you're trading opex costs to save on capex costs, which can mean a really big difference in terms of opportunity costs. You also are paying for the expertise that you'd need to develop internally otherwise. These aren't simple black and white choices. Operating at FB level scale means that saving 2% on your cost of revenue is billions of dollars. If this is the only "Big" outage FB has for the next 2 years, and it's saved them billions of dollars, isn't the fairly small risk of a single point of failure worth it?

You have to accept some risk, and it's often hard to compare risks on the business side vs risks on the technical side.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#453
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My /. sig for years: > It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong. That said, I don't think that the government is wrong here.

Well, the specific question that the government is answering is "should these people be employed if they make choices I disagree with". It is more borderline than it might appear at first blush. I'm not sure I can think of a precedent for being so willing to eject that many people from the workforce in such a way.

The actual question is "should these people be employed if they make choices that cause customers to die?"

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#454
post #69
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to an analyst that CBS talked to https://www.cbsnews.com/news/southwest-flight-cancellations-... Southwest was hit harder because of they way they organize their routes. Not having "hubs" means they can't create alternate routes quickly. So the delays in Florida cascaded back, stranding planes and crews as well as passengers. He also says they'd already scheduled more flights than they can handle, but I don…

> more flights than they can handle More flights than pilots. Like when your PM brings in work from the previous sprint, to the current, fully loaded sprint.

PM = Past Master?

And, tbf, i got it as i hit the 'equals' sign.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Southwest runs 3 to 4K commercial flights per day, which is about 1 in 7 commercial flights overall in the US. They depend on aircraft doing many short hops over the course of a single day: 7 or 8 is not uncommon. When things go bad it tends to disrupt the system very badly. These numbers come from the US DOT ontime database. You can access the data in ClickHouse at https://github.demo.trial.altinity.cloud:8443 (user…

This seems like a strategy designed to kill airframes via sheer number of pressurization cycles?

> This seems like a strategy designed to kill airframes via sheer number of pressurization cycles?

That's what planes are for - to use them. They are not museum pieces to be preserved.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, someone's got to do it. Letting thing stagnate in perpetuity isn't cheap either. Move slowly and write tests.

Sure, but a veteran coder at least understands that tampering with something may affect some other subsystem you don't even know exists until it breaks... which you wouldn't even think to test. The idea of throwing the phone staff into COBOL instead of them learning Python just obfuscates the real problem which isn't that the language is uncool and dying but that the systems are like the rules of the NFL. They stoppe…

Ah, yeah, fully agree - I just saw your mention of having 25 years experience, which made me think basically "if not you, then who?"

I didn’t intend to imply that the problem could be solved by an army of people fresh out of boot camps with no senior level supervision.

I'm also realizing now that just because you "would consider it extremely daunting" does not necessarily mean that you don't think you could be a net positive contributor.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downvotes on this site have gotten insane. This is a perfectly rational comment. Whether you agree with them or not, just burying your hand and refusing to acknowledge that a nontrivial percentage of workers oppose mandates is just asinine. Boneheaded authoritarianism. If you ever wondered how horrors like the soviet union and nazi germany are possible, take a look at the religious groupthink that has seemingly c…

[flagged]

It's long term impacts are completely unknown. It's a pandemic that is already endemic. It's the theft of people's livelihoods by forcing irreversible medical procedures that they've determined they don't need and wont' give their informed consent for.

To anyone still pushing vax mandates, you're a fucking monster.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#458
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Southwest is literally the poster child of low cost carriers. They started the whole business model, which consists of a few things: * they operate literally one type of aircraft, and therefore only have to train their crew once, keep the specific set of parts, etc. * they optimize the hell out of making sure their planes are in use carrying paying passengers for the maximum amount of time * they fly a vast network o…

How operating one type of plane makes recovering from disruption harder? I'd expect it to make it easier - you can replace any crew with any other crew, and any plane with any other plane. Same with secondary airports - I am not sure how it makes recovery harder. Distributed systems are usually more robust against disruption that centralized ones - if you can't fly in an out of the hub, then all your flights in that…

> Distributed systems are usually more robust against disruption that centralized ones

Distributed systems can also be more complex to re-converge after a major disruption.

I'd imagine it's non-trivial to re-plan a network, given equipment and crew limitations.

And as context, we're talking about 24 hours later, now?

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#459

It's spectacular to see LUV devolving from one of the best managed and employee oriented airline company to this. It's not an outstanding incident though, the company was on the downward trajectory from, I would say, end of 2017. Sooner or later every US airline company declares bankruptcy, LUV so far has escaped it. But one would bet it will happen this year (unlikely) or next year.

What has been the problem(s)?

Overall, it's operational fragility. Back in 2017 or 2018 there was engine failure, that started inspection of all planes, that triggered massive flights cancellation, revenue drops and calls for reconsidering their seating policy and baggage fees. Who would forget that SW had to park their fleet after that Boeing catastrophe and investigation. Gary Kelly spending too much time lobbying instead of improving company efficiency. 2020 was almost a catastrophe for the company has it not been for billions in cash injections, subsidies and loans from federal government. Another one is, SW used to be quite unusually employee oriented for an airline company. This has changed in last 3-4 years based on their negotiations with pilots and flight attendants unions, which does reflect on company's performance.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#460

Southwest's pilot union sued the company over its Covid-19 vaccine mandate a few days ago[1], this is clearly related. The media isn't reporting this because the media owners don't want the masses hearing about others beginning to revolt against the draconian and illogical vaccine mandates (i.e. Why wouldn't a naturally derived antibody test be allowed in place of a vaccine, considering that's the whole point of gett…

Stop crying and get vaccinated, or find a way to make money without endangering other people.
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