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Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

thepointsguy.com

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Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also explicitly deny that a sickout is occuring: > There are false claims of job actions by Southwest Pilots currently gaining traction on social media and making their way into mainstream news. I can say with certainty that there are no work slowdowns or sickouts either related to the recent mandatory vaccine mandate or otherwise. Under the RLA, our Union is forbidden from taking job action to resolve labor dis…

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Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's because it's technically illegal to do a walkout... https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-a-southwest-airli... In reality, a lot of pilots can just message each other on the side and say "f-it". Idk how many it takes to take down the system, but I suspect even 20% out sick could cause a cascading failure.

20%? That would mean they have 20% extra pilots on standby ready to take over for the sick. I think it is far lower than that, more like 5% or less. I suspect it might be closer to 2%, that there are no real backups. I bet that when someone is stick someone else is called in on their weekend. That would be the labor action: pilots refusing to work overtime/weekends when called to cover for someone.

Oh I agree, doesn't require a large number -- maybe 5% of pilots. To shut down all flights is likely still slightly higher.

What I suspect is actually happening is much larger.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To counteract this Southwest does not do red eye flights which theoretically should allow them to reset operations overnight. This does not seem to be working for some reason.

Often the limiting factors for an airline aren't the planes, but the humans to operate them. If the pilots aren't in the right place and available to fly, then an overnight to reset the positions of the planes does nothing. Nevermind the fact that resetting the network would in fact burn up flight time which seems to be in short supply.

Agreed, SWA canceled 2000 flights over the weekend, seems like they should enough rested crew to reset.

I did see in the Dallas Morning News that SWA had schedule the most flights today since the start of the Covid.

>Dallas-based Southwest planned more than 3,600 flights on Sunday, the most of any day since the COVID-19 pandemic began, but nearly one-third of those were canceled.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2021/10/10/sout...

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I assume the current administration could direct the Dept of Defense to make military pilots available to Southwest Yeah just have them switch to a completely different type of aircraft without getting trained or checked out at all, this will definitely fix the problem in short order.

I understand you have an axe to grind, as many of your recent posts are anti vaccination in nature. Regardless, public support is robust for the measures being taken to bring the pandemic public health crisis to a conclusion, and with regards to vaccine mandates and terminating those who refuse, so far those actions have been adjudicated as lawful. So, the current administration has to get creative when you have coho…

Cuz most people dumb

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#135
post #31

Seeing stories like this makes me wonder if we'll ever see a company actually go bust based purely on the instability of its decades-old, duct-taped architecture. I have a relative who works for a large credit card processor running on mainframe systems and I hear over and over again that they're all retiring and unable to fill the newly opened roles. This problem is compounded by the fact that their offshore contrac…

> decades-old, duct-taped architecture The way the survivorship bias works out, this is generally a strength, not a weakness. You want to get good money, you learn how stuff works under the hood and get familiar with your predecessor architectures, emulate them if you need to.

I have to disagree. These systems aren't "survivors" - they're held together with a fragile weave of scripts, hacks, unsupported hardware and outdated knowledge. Often treated as a black box, they become an object that people have to hand-nurse through issues that would never trouble modern systems. The amount of effort and money that's expended to maintain these systems is typically far more than the upfront cost would be to replace them every decade with a more modern one, but that would look bad in the short term financials, so we keep babysitting the tower of glass and praying it doesn't fall.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#136
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also explicitly deny that a sickout is occuring: > There are false claims of job actions by Southwest Pilots currently gaining traction on social media and making their way into mainstream news. I can say with certainty that there are no work slowdowns or sickouts either related to the recent mandatory vaccine mandate or otherwise. Under the RLA, our Union is forbidden from taking job action to resolve labor dis…

Doesn’t that just mean the union itself isn’t organizing a sickout?

Or at least not publicly admiting to it - which if the statement is to believed would be illegal, which sounds like a good motive to deny any knowledge.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#137
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Under the RLA, our Union is forbidden from taking job action to resolve labor disputes under these circumstances They couldn't admit it if that's what they're doing. They'd have to deny it either way. Even an "unofficial" unorganized sick out. On the other hand- if a pilot knew he was getting fired in two weeks for not getting vaccinated, and he happened to have two weeks sick pay, well then the company policy did a…

Even if an employee is fired for cause the employer is required to pay out accrued vacation time.

Where I am, they pay out vacation time, but not sick time (unless it's a combined pool, in which case vacation takes precedence.) I don't know how common that situation is, but it certainly incentivizes getting "sick" right before you leave a job.

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also explicitly deny that a sickout is occuring: > There are false claims of job actions by Southwest Pilots currently gaining traction on social media and making their way into mainstream news. I can say with certainty that there are no work slowdowns or sickouts either related to the recent mandatory vaccine mandate or otherwise. Under the RLA, our Union is forbidden from taking job action to resolve labor dis…

I think that's because it's technically illegal to do a walkout... https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-a-southwest-airli... In reality, a lot of pilots can just message each other on the side and say "f-it". Idk how many it takes to take down the system, but I suspect even 20% out sick could cause a cascading failure.

alexberenson may have his own biases. But the situation is strange. From the opposite corner of the country, the ferry system in Puget Sound is already cancelling tens of crossing a day because of sick calls leading to "lack of Coast Guard documented crew". A vaccine mandate is looming for Oct 18 with 250 ferry employees still unvaccinated. "It wouldn't take much to cripple the system," said retired ferry Capt. Ken Burtness.

> Employee exodus could 'cripple' Washington ferry system as dozens of sailings canceled again Friday

> 'The new norm': Washington ferry workers call out sick in protest of COVID-19 vaccine mandate

https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/washin...

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#139
How difficult is Cobol to learn compared to other languages? I admit I had a bias against it when I was watching Dave Plummer’s software drag race between it, C++, and Fortran[1] but I was absolutely blown away at it being faster than the Fortran implementation, and about 50% slower than the C++ one. For something so verbose, I wasn’t expecting it to compile to such efficient machine code.

[1] https://youtu.be/yYcHWGxtRQo

Re: Southwest operational meltdown as hundreds of flights canceled or delayed

#140

Seeing stories like this makes me wonder if we'll ever see a company actually go bust based purely on the instability of its decades-old, duct-taped architecture. I have a relative who works for a large credit card processor running on mainframe systems and I hear over and over again that they're all retiring and unable to fill the newly opened roles. This problem is compounded by the fact that their offshore contrac…

Decades-old, duct-taped architecture is endemic across the airline industry though, and AFAIK Southwest isn't even particularly bad on this front. American Airlines's original reservation system Sabre, still a major GDS player today, was first put together in the 1950s and is by some reckonings the oldest commercial (as in, non-government/military/research) computer system out there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabre_(computer_system)

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